Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 5 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Defense streamers, say it with me in unison – “what the hell!”

The Dolphins are on a bye week. The Cardinals and Bengals play each other. Additionally, a couple of usual teams to stream against (Washington, Oakland) are playing team defenses that are already high-owned (New England, Chicago).

So, who the hell are we going to pick on this week?

That’s where the Stream-O chart comes into play! It twists your mind, rattles your cage, and causes you to lose your shit on Reddit. The common thread between those three things? The Stream-O chart causes you to use your brain and take sides based on stats combined with common sense. As I always say, these aren’t the end-all rankings, rather a path to guiding you to streaming glory by providing a baseline.

Let’s check out what the chart has in store for Week 5!

2019 Fantasy Football Week 5 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on 12-team ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
137.549ers31.1CLE5020.523273131
134Patriots97.6WAS003012283232
125Titans69.6BUF502716302819
121Bears99.1OAK002814193030
113Panthers43.5JAX50262162728
109Bills81.5TEN00223022629
101Saints64.8TB50182426199
101Vikings89.4NYG00247232324
95Texans33.5ATL501911241620
90Buccaneers4.3NO00713182527
89Seahawks35.8LAR50138252216
87.5Browns33.9SF0010.52292125
85Eagles58.1NYJ5029287511
83.5Packers47.5DAL0010.53202426
82Chargers85.9DEN50251916125
79Steelers26.3BAL501217112014
77Bengals1.3ARI5017272143
77Giants1.1MIN50922151313
76.5Cowboys41.8GB5020.51051818
75Rams92.7SEA0082521723
72Falcons5.3HOU0042914817
70Jets8.7PHI003982921
67Chiefs13.3IND50156121415
66Raiders1.1CHI50141513910
65Cardinals7.3CIN006262238
61Jaguars83.2CAR00161841112
56Ravens52.4PIT002351774
43Broncos22.9LAC005201026
37Lions2.1BYE----------1522
33Redskins5.1NE5024967
16Colts26.1KC00112102
2Dolphins0.4BYE----------11

Defenses on Bye Week: Dolphins, Lions

Optimum Score: 164

Minimum Score: 2

Streaming Service

Here I’ll talk about defenses that stand out on the chart as valid waiver wire options. Just like streaming services versus cable/satellite in the TV world, streaming defenses are more popular than the drafted ones. Not a bold take.

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  • Did everyone forget what the San Francisco 49ers did defensively before their bye week? Or is everyone fully back on board with the Browns offense after they smacked down the Ravens? Well, in regards to the first question, the Niners defense was the only unit keeping pace with the Patriots from a fantasy standpoint. As for the second question, the Ravens defense has been suspect all year so that outbreak isn’t as impressive as some will think. I believe that San Francisco defensive line, coming off a bye week at home, will wear down the Browns offensive line and create fantasy havoc this Monday night.
  • Double-check your waiver wire to make sure the Tennessee Titans aren’t hanging around. A matchup with Matt Barkley looks to be in the works and this is a strong unit.
  • If it’s floor you want, the Carolina Panthers should be able to hold the Jags offense in check. There’s nothing special about it right now other than Gardner Minshew’s mustache, so don’t overthink it.
  • The strangest team that I would like to stream this week is the Houston Texans. The Falcons offense has been in disarray through four weeks and I don’t expect it to magically reappear on the road against a good Houston defense. If they can stop the run and force Matt Ryan into more long yardage-to-gain, the ceiling is high here.
  • It’s really simple – if the Philadelphia Eagles are playing a Luke Falk-led Jets, stream away. If Sam Darnold suits up this week, they are still a decent play, just not as good. Either way, the chart is underrating them. I know the defense sucks, but you trust the opponent sucking worse in this case.

Run Away!

Here I’ll talk about waiver wire defenses that the chart likes but I’m not comfortable streaming. I will be running away – not unlike King Arthur and his knights upon their visit with the French.

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  • I know the Seattle Seahawks are coming off strong performances, but look who they played. They got Teddy Bridgewater’s first game with the Saints and an Arizona offense that can’t create big plays. This week, they get a Rams team that will want to bounce back from an embarrassing performance in Week 4. I’m having a really hard time trusting the Seahawks defense on Thursday night and don’t want to be in a hole in my fantasy matchup before the weekend starts.
  • For all the reasons I listed above as to why I love the 49ers to win big this week, I choose to sit the Cleveland Browns. San Francisco’s very balanced offense gets a week of rest and a likely return from Tevin Coleman to an already strong skills team. I think this is a big letdown game for Cleveland after a big win against a division rival.
  • I’m once again fading the Green Bay Packers this week on the road against the Cowboys. Hey, it worked for me last week – let’s go back to the well! Dallas should bounce back this week and the Packers were exposed last week by a team with similar offensive firepower.

Lagniappe

I’ve still got a little Louisiana in me. I’ll go through some extra notes in this section like future shares and units to drop.


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  • What in the world are we expecting from this New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup?! One week, these defenses look like world-beaters; the next, they look like doggy doo-doo. The chart has both of them high up, which makes me want to bet on the home team and Vegas odds as the tiebreaker. However, I can’t trust either unit here.
  • For those worried about the placement on the chart for the Los Angeles Chargers, don’t be. They aren’t a strong defense with all the injuries they’ve suffered, but it’s still the Broncos offense we are talking about here. They’ll have a nice floor and I can trust them more than the three defenses listed in the “Run Away!” section.

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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