Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 6 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Alright, if you thought Week 5 was interesting for streaming defenses, wait until you see some of these matchups. Well, you already have – it’s freaking Thursday morning. But alas, I’m here to filter through the good and the bad as always.

First, let’s take a look back at last week’s suggestions. I keep tabs on how the chart does versus my own rankings, but it’d be nice to share with the class!

  • All the defenses listed in my Streaming Service section gave you a DST1 performance. So, all you haters can SUCK IT. Oh wait, you actually like these articles? Thank you so much and I hope to maintain your readership. I want all of you to be my friends. Well, most of you. Anyway, 49ers and Eagles gave you the upside while the Titans and Panthers provided the floor.
  • Well, hot damn, my Run Away options were correct too! While the scoreboard was nice for the Packers, their defense didn’t produce for fantasy. The Seahawks and Browns were unplayable as expected despite a high ownership percentage.
  • In the Lagniappe section, I requested that fantasy owners avoid the Buccaneers and Saints. While the Saints DST was decent, all of the streaming options I listed in the first bullet were better options. Additionally, the call to play the Chargers was the right one as they got a defensive score with two turnovers.

Last week was easily the best week of this article in 2019. I’ll continue to recap my picks, good or bad, in the weeks to come. For now, time to continue the hot streak. On to Week 6!

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2019 Fantasy Football Week 6 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on 12-team ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
132.0Patriots98.3NYG552811193232
112.0Panthers54.2TB001624212625
101.0Titans81.8DEN002117172719
100.0Cowboys38.1NYJ002628181414
95.0Vikings88.1PHI5022772529
94.0Seahawks30.1CLE051421271611
94.0Eagles75.5MIN001319112427
94.049ers36.7LAR0055223131
91.0Jets9.1DAL5063252923
89.0Packers35.8DET5020992224
88.0Steelers24.7LAC001213142326
86.0Redskins4.5MIA0023262854
81.0Broncos19.8TEN5024272617
80.0Ravens45.3CIN5025221279
75.0Rams89.2SF50152241316
74.0Chargers82.6PIT5027116205
74.0Chiefs15.3HOU5092581215
72.0Browns33.8SEA55111621518
72.0Buccaneers6.2CAR5081551920
71.0Saints68.3JAX00171462113
69.0Dolphins0.4WAS5018182611
63.0Jaguars76.1NO501981588
61.0Lions1.9GB0071241721
58.0Bears99.2BYE----------3028
58.0Bills83.6BYE----------2830
54.0Falcons5.1ARI0010231326
49.0Cardinals18.2ATL504102343
47.0Bengals2.1BAL002202032
47.0Texans32.1KC001421822
45.0Giants1.1NE0536101110
21.0Raiders1.3BYE----------912
17.0Colts18.1BYE----------107

Defenses on Bye Week: Bears, Bills, Colts, Raiders

Optimum Score: 158


Minimum Score: 2

Streaming Service

Here I’ll talk about defenses that stand out on the chart as valid waiver wire options. Just like streaming services versus cable/satellite in the TV world, streaming defenses are more popular than the drafted ones. Not a bold take.

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  • I sure didn’t have the Carolina Panthers available in 50% of my leagues, but the ESPN ownership doesn’t lie. They’re a strong play against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers this week. It may be a high-scoring game, but the turnover upside is there for sure.
  • Even though Sam Darnold is coming back for the Jets, I still like the Dallas Cowboys to perform well in this game. Vegas has them as 8.5-point favorites by my last check with a 43.5-point O/U. That bodes well for a Dallas defense that’s coming off an embarrassing performance at home against Green Bay. I think it’ll take a couple of weeks for Darnold to get his feet under him, so the floor here should be very solid for the Cowboys DST.
  • It’s a risky play, but I like where the Stream-O chart has the Seattle Seahawks this week. First off, the Seahawks will have had four extra days of rest and preparation relative to the Browns between their Week 5 and Week 6 matchups. Secondly, did you watch that Monday night game? The Browns offensive line looks completely lost. They rank 26th in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking according to Football Outsiders. Seattle has shown the ability to produce in fantasy a couple of times this year. I believe it’s time to fire them up again.
  • Now everyone, hold your nose and throw the Washington Redskins defense into your lineup. I know it’s ugly and both teams may just conspire to tie the game, but I still believe Washington is better than Miami and will have a positive game script. Think about it from the other side – who are you starting for the Miami offense? Kenyan Drake and who else? That’s pretty telling of just how bad that offense truly is. Trust the process!

Run Away!

Here I’ll talk about waiver wire defenses that the chart likes but I’m not comfortable streaming. I will be running away – not unlike King Arthur and his knights upon their visit with the French.

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  • The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a big week, but don’t let that force you into playing them in Week 6. This matchup is uninspiring as the Vikings will likely want to revert back to running the ball. Even if they decide to stay through the air, you’re looking at the worn down secondary having to cover two elite route runners. I actually think this is going to be a low-scoring affair with neither defense really getting the opportunity for turnovers.
  • The New York Jets are not a team I trust this week with my defensive streaming. They’ve been a solid defense with great fantasy scoring over the first few weeks, but this Dallas matchup isn’t ideal (3rd worst). However, after the Patriots game next week, they’ll host the Jags, Dolphins, and Giants before going on the road to Washington. Monitor their performance against those two good offenses, then pounce on them in Week 8.
  • I am once again passing on the Green Bay Packers on Monday night against the Lions. The Lions are coming off a bye week and have a slew of weapons to use on opponents. The Packers defense will have its day – I just don’t think it’s next Monday.
  • I will also be passing on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6 against the Chargers. Talk about bad game flow – I don’t expect a scenario where an undrafted quarterback from Samford puts them ahead. In fact, I’d probably prefer the Chargers DST. Or just neither. Take your chance on one of the more readily available options.

Lagniappe

I’ve still got a little Louisiana in me. I’ll go through some extra notes in this section like future shares and units to drop.


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  • I hate rostering two defenses in redraft leagues, which brings us to the Chicago Bears and Buffalo Bills this week. I know it’s unlikely, but try shopping the Bears DST as part of a package. Their next five opponents off the bye week prevent them from their typical upside and they are one of those rare defenses that have trade value. Meanwhile, the Bills DST might deserve a spot on your bench if you can help it. Their next six games feature the Dolphins (twice), Eagles, Redskins, Browns, and Broncos. Five of the six are quite juicy.
  • I’m not sure what to think of the Baltimore Ravens this week. It is the Bengals offense for crying out loud. They just haven’t given you any reason to trust them in the past few weeks. Remember when the Browns put up 40 on them? Pepperidge Farms remembers. They can be used if you are really in a bind, but just know you’ve got a low floor.

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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