Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 9 Defense Stream-O-Matic

on

As always, before we venture off into a new week, let’s recap Week 8 of the stream-o chart. Friends, it was a good one!

2019 fantasy football week 8 defense stream-o-matic

Shout out to my colleague, Keith Lott, for the graphic. What a beautiful, linear progression! Wait, where are the Patriots? Oh, right, waaaaaay up there in the top right corner. Geez.

  • I’m content with all of the streaming options I suggested last week. The Titans and Steelers needed to be owned because of their matchups. The Lions and Seahawks performed above their Stream-O-Matic score. The Colts were the only DST I was sorta wrong on, but, hey, they still gave you a valuable output. Not bad!
  • Additionally, I had a couple of good defenses to avoid. The Panthers and Buccaneers both underperformed relative to their chart placement. However, I did tell people to avoid both teams in the matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, causing folks to miss out on the nice Philly performance. Oh well, better safe than sorry!

Gotta toot my own horn every once in a while. If I wasn’t getting better at this, I would push you to some other defense streaming article. Onward to Week 9, party people!

Note: Own% this week is based on pre-waiver wire numbers. I will be trying to get this information out on Tuesdays from now on so people can claim/FAAB accordingly!

2019 Fantasy Football Week 9 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Manage all your fantasy teams in every league in just one place. Sign up to use the Fantasy Pros Playbook.

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on 12-team ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
129.0Bills87.5WAS552823242717
125.0Panthers49.6TEN502527112928
119.0Patriots99.1BAL002117173232
116.049ers86.7ARI00272163131
116.0Jets10.8MIA002626261622
113.0Broncos21.4CLE501920281130
106.0Eagles42.2CHI552314152123
94.0Titans56.7CAR001622102521
92.0Seahawks35.6TB501425251211
91.0Cowboys28.8NYG002215211914
89.0Bears96.2PHI0589132826
88.0Steelers82.1IND5017753024
88.0Jaguars80.6HOU05719162219
83.0Browns16.2DEN00242414912
75.0Packers34.4LAC00186181320
75.0Dolphins0.7NYJ5013282711
73.0Chiefs14.9MIN50121372016
71.0Redskins14.2BUF0511182269
60.0Vikings83.1KC005312625
58.0Colts55.9PIT0020119108
57.0Ravens36.6NE5010581415
57.0Texans23.1JAX0515124813
55.0Giants3.1DAL502420177
52.0Rams90.5BYE----------2329
52.0Buccaneers3.6SEA0011621518
51.0Saints86.3BYE----------2427
48.0Chargers60.8GB506103186
47.0Cardinals5.7SF50382344
44.0Raiders0.8DET50911955
35.0Lions20.7OAK004212710
5.0Falcons2.2BYE----------23
5.0Bengals0.8BYE----------32

Defenses on Bye Week: Bengals, Falcons, Rams, Saints

Optimum Score: 158

Minimum Score: 2

Streaming Service

Here I’ll talk about defenses that stand out on the chart as valid waiver wire options. Just like streaming services versus cable/satellite in the TV world, streaming defenses are more popular than the drafted ones. Not a bold take.

Embed from Getty Images

  • Ya know, it’s been smart to play defenses against the Dolphins offense in 2019. They’re turning the ball over more than twice and allowing four sacks per game on average. This bodes well for their next opponent, the New York Jets. I know, they’ve lost CJ Moseley and traded away Leonard Williams and pissed off Jamal Adams. Still, don’t overthink this.
  • This game between the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns is shaping up to be quite the trainwreck. Baker Mayfield is serving up turnovers and the Broncos are turning to Brandon Allen to lead the charge. Woof. Both defenses are streamable with confidence this week.
  • If you picked up the Seattle Seahawks last week, fire them up again. I’m still on the bandwagon with a matchup against careless Jameis.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are an excellent streaming option this week against the Giants. Dallas is coming off a bye week at home. The Giants have been averaging multiple turnovers and over five sacks per game in their last five.

Run Away!

Here I’ll talk about waiver wire defenses that the chart likes but I’m not comfortable streaming. I will be running away – not unlike King Arthur and his knights upon their visit with the French.

Embed from Getty Images

  • I’m actually not digging the matchup for the Tennessee Titans this week at Carolina. I think last week’s disappointment for the Panthers was more a product of the 49ers defense than anything. Kyle Allen should right the ship here and get his mojo back. You’ll be fine streaming them, but the upside just isn’t as high as one would think.
  • All the people who drafted the Chicago Bears highly in their drafts won’t like this, but they’re a sit for me this week. Just like with Tennessee, they’ll be fine to start, but the upside here is limited. We do potentially get a windy day, but Carson Wentz proved he could play through a windstorm last week in Buffalo, so there’s that. I don’t know, just not feeling it in the ol’ gut.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars deserve a mention here given their ownership percentage. A good, general rule of thumb for streaming defenses is to avoid Deshaun Watson. The dude is a maniac.

Lagniappe

I’ve still got a little Louisiana in me. I’ll go through some extra notes in this section like future shares and units to drop.



Embed from Getty Images

  • It’s not time quite yet to start picking up defenses for your bench. However, it is time to start familiarizing yourself with defenses with good playoff schedules just so you can watch-list them. As the great poet Rick Ross once said, “stay scheming”.
  • I hate holding defenses on my bench (as mentioned in the previous bullet), but the Los Angeles Rams may be an exception. They’ll open with the Steelers and Bears after their bye week.
  • The Minnesota Vikings are in a weird spot this week. I believe in the defense, but it’s who will be lining up at center on the other side that will decide their stream-ability. Matt Moore did play relatively well last week, but the Minnesota defense will present a much tougher test than the Packers defense. If it’s Patrick Mahomes, no thanks!

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

Follow me on Twitter at @therealwody. For all the latest news and best advice out there, like us on Facebook, Google+ and Instagram.

Recommended for you

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.