2019 Fantasy Football Busts

2019 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts: Veering Off

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You’ve now heard me talk about receivers who have a high likelihood of outperforming their draft position. The 2019 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts remain just as relevant in our evaluation as the boom prospects.

The only difference is the antithesis is not an exact opposite.

This means you should keep in mind of course, that “bust” doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll do badly. Only that they’ll have a hard time living up to the standards we set for them.


2019 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts

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Antonio Brown WR7, 18 overall

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I’m not saying he’s going to have a bad year. But AB is currently being drafted ahead of Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, and Keenan Allen.

AB should have more than enough volume to remain a must start option if you do draft him. But the inefficiency of the Raiders offense as a whole makes me hesitant to take him where he’s currently being drafted.

Brown seems primed to have a 2018 David Johnson season. Where he is drafted too highly because of name recognition and does well, but fails to meet our bloated expectations.

A.J. Green WR13, 30 overall

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A.J. Green is, in my opinion, in the same boat as Antonio Brown. Green will be 31 at the beginning of the season and coming off a season cut short by injuries.

My main concern for Green is, will he do that much better than Tyler Boyd? Boyd impressed us as a solid option in an unimpressive but now potentially improved offense. Boyd is currently being drafted in the sixth round.

Again I believe Green will do quite well this season if he remains healthy. But Green is being picked right around the same time as Zach Ertz, Aaron Jones, and Pat Mahomes. So it’s not necessarily that Green will bust, I just believe there is better value to be had in this range.

Tyler Lockett WR22, 52 overall

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A quick disclaimer, of all the people on this list, Lockett is the one I have the most faith in. My issue is Lockett was nearly perfect last season and will need to maintain that same level of efficiency to keep last years momentum.

Lockett had an 81.4% catch rate, 16.93 yards per catch, and 10 TDs last season. All while being on the most run heavy team in the NFL. Every one of these metrics is going to be very hard to repeat. Factor in the arrival of DK Metcalf and the chance of regression starts to look not only possible, but likely.

Jarvis Landry WR24, 58 overall

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This one is kind of a freebie for a bust article. Odell Beckham is in town and that means everybody is getting less attention. Landry has always been very volume dependent, which was never an issue in Miami.

Now he’s on a team with Beckham, Njoku, and Callaway, all of whom deserve and will likely get plenty of opportunity. As Jarvis Landry is the only person to have ever had more than 110 catches in a season and failed to break 1000 yards, this could affect him more than anybody else.

There’s also the very real possibility that once Kareem Hunt comes back from suspension, there won’t be as much of a need to pass as often. The Browns could end up looking like the Saints in recent years with Chubb and Hunt doing most of the heavy lifting.

Sammy Watkins WR26, 62 overall

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Tyreek is likely to get a four game suspension. So we can basically forget Mecole Hardman completely. But that’s also bad news for Sammy Watkins, because Hill and Kelce are the driving forces behind this offense.

While it needs to be stated that he only has played a full season once in his career, that actually isn’t my biggest issue with Watkins. My biggest issue is the lack of consistency when he is on the field.

If he has a game with 3 catches for 21 yards, like he did week one last year, are you going to bench him the next week? Then week 2 he has 6 catches and 1 carry and 131 scrimmage yards. This is a very common trend for Watkins so far in his career.

I for one don’t like spending early picks on boom or bust receivers, even if they are attached to Pat Mahomes.

Allen Robinson WR33, 82 overall

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Want to play a game with this one? Without looking it up, guess how many more PPR points Robinson had in 2018 than Cole Beasley (who is currently drafted as the WR110).

Realistically, a person might say it’s in the 15-25 point range. The correct answer however is 3.1 points. Robinson was the top scoring Bears receiver, the second best was Taylor Gabriel. He outscored Gabriel by 1.4 points.

Robinson did however miss a few games, but Robinson seems to always miss a few games. And we seem to continue drafting him hoping he can be his 2015 form again. In 2015 he had 151 targets, 80 catches, 1400 yards, and 14 TDs. That was good for the PPR WR6 on the season.

The next season he had the same 151 targets, but with 73 receptions, 883 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Good for PPR WR24.

Last season Robinson failed to hit double digit points in 7 of 13 games. He only had a catch rate above 60% in 5 games. He only scored a touchdown in 3 games.

My point being, Allen Robinson is a fine option as a real life football player. And the Bears offense should look a lot better this season. But getting Robinson in fantasy football looks like it’ll only pay off for a few big games. A mid round pick can be best spent elsewhere.

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Thank-you for checking out the 2019 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts. Have a good summer and draft.


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About Bobby Shepherd

Bobby has played fantasy football since he was first tall enough to reach a draft board. He eats sleeps and breathes stats and is always excited to share his findings.

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