2019 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend DVOA Matchups

by Keith Lott
2019 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend DVOA Matchups

Football Outsiders DVOA is one of our favorite metrics to follow all season long.

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

Their Weighted DVOA favors more recent games to give us a better idea of how teams played at the end of the season. Unfortunately, they do not have (or I can not find) Weighted DVOA for offensive/defensive pass/rush, just an overall Weighted Total DVOA.

Below I created three DVOA matchup tables and charts:

  • Weighted Offensive DVOA vs Weighted Defensive DVOA
  • Offensive Pass DVOA vs Defensive Pass DVOA
  • Offensive Rush DVOA vs Defensive Rush DVOA

It is important to note that negative is good when it comes to defensive DVOA.

2019 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend DVOA Matchups

Looking for Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Rankings? Click here!

Weighted Defensive DVOA :: Weighted Offensive DVOA


The Chargers, Seahawks and Colts ended the season hot, clicking on offense. The Eagles and Seahawks defenses were not playing good football. The Bears are terrifying on defense, which is why they are highlighted red - negative is good in defensive DVOA.

Opponent Defensive Pass DVOA :: Offensive Pass DVOA


The Colts are the passing game to target this weekend. T.Y. Hilton (ankle) could be a problem, if healthy, for the Texans who were dominated by WR1s this year. They rank 2nd to last in DVOA vs opposing teams top pass catchers.

The Cowboys have done a good job limiting opposing WRs, ranking sixth vs WR1s and third vs WR2s. Not a great matchup for Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Dallas is top 10 vs the deep ball as well.

Los Angeles features the best aerial attack this weekend but has a tough matchup against this Baltiomore defense. Unfortunately for Keenan Allen, the Ravens rank 8th in DVOA vs WR1s.

DeAndre Hopkins and Keke Coutee both went over 100 yards against the Colts back in Week 4, but in their second matchup, Week 14, Hopkins was limited to just four catches for 36 yards on 10 targets. He did catch a touchdown pass in both games. Sterling Shepard (Wk15) is the only other WR to go over 100 receiving yards against the Colts this year.

Dak Prescott and Mitchell Trubisky have the "best matchups" but have not been great at generating offense through the air. Both passers were extremely inconsistent this year. Even after getting Amari Cooper, Prescott has struggled to find any rhythm. He did look good against the Giants to end the season, throwing four touchdown passes.

Opponent Defensive Rush DVOA :: Offensive Rush DVOA


There are no great matchups this weekend but it looks like Ezekiel Elliott vs the Seahawks, Gus Edwards vs the Chargers and Jordan Howard vs the Eagles are the top options this weekend.

Melvin Gordon vs the Ravens and Chris Carson vs the Cowboys are hard to ignore but the matchups are not great. The Ravens are the top defense against pass catching backs. The Cowboys can be beat by pass catching backs but Carson is not targeted often.

The Eagles struggled to run the football all season long and now they have to face a Chicago Bears defense that ranked second in the NFL this season in rush defense DVOA.

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1 comment

2019 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round DVOA Matchups - Fantasy Six Pack January 8, 2019 - 9:00 am

[…] week, using weighted DVOA to look at the Wild Card Weekend matchups, the Colts had the best matchup and won on the road against the Texans but the Eagles had the worst […]


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