Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 NFL Week 10 ThriveFantasy Picks: Making Green On Green?

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So one of the prop bets that is one of my NFL Week 10 ThriveFantasy Picks is the under on AJ Green. It could be for 1 yard and I would still take the under. That’s because AJ Green is not playing in week 10, so it’s a pretty easy bet to make that he performs beneath the line.

Unfortunately, it’s not usually that simple. ThriveFantasy and other books will often require that player to play a snap for action to be valid on either side. The result is that they end up taking that bet off the board.

The good news is you don’t lose. The bad news is you don’t win either. And in the case of ThriveFantasy, they will go to what they call their ICE options.

ICE stands for in case of emergency. They will use it if one of your bets becomes null and void. So you lose one of your top ten bets, but have an additional opportunity to score. So yes, I’ve got the A.J. Green Under as one of my week 10 ThriveFantasy picks. But I’m even more conscious this week about my ICE picks than others.

If you are betting elsewhere and can get the A.J. Green under regardless of his stats, grab the free money and run. However, I doubt you will be able to. I do know what will happen on ThriveFantasy though, so let’s get to the 2019 NFL Week 10 ThriveFantasy Picks.

2019 NFL Week 10 ThriveFantasy Picks

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Stay Away

Travis Kelce, Chiefs – O/U 5.5 receptions – 110/90 Points

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I’m 90% sure that Kelce gets 5 receptions this week, but only about 45 to 55% sure he gets to six. Therefore, this line is a bit of torture for me.

First off, Kelce has 49 receptions through nine games. Or about 5.44 receptions per game. That is way too close to the line in my opinion.

Sometimes you can ignore the average if the recent trend tells you something. Unfortunately, Kelce has bounced around the line the last four games with 4 catches, 6 catches, 4 catches, and 7 catches.

Throw in the uncertainty with how Pat Mahomes plays this week, there is just too much uncertainty for me to take either side of this bet.

Grab ‘Em

Saquon Barkley, Giants 120.5 rushing and receiving yards – 100 Points – OVER

Obviously the injury didn’t help, but Barkley has been kind of quiet this year. Yet according to our friends over at PFF, Barkley is second in Expected Fantasy Points behind only Christian McCaffrey. They have him projected for 81 rushing yards (and I’ve found that PFF’s projections are often conservative).

With both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard out this week, I think Barkley can get half that mark through the air, putting him at the necessary 121 total yards.

Furthermore, the Jets are giving up more than 25 fantasy points to opposing running backs. I’m not expecting the other NYG RBs to contribute a whole lot. 121 yards at “even money” is not a low threshold, but I think Barkley breaks through it. But there’s another player I like to hit the OVER, even more, this week.

Drew Brees, Saints 282.5 passing yards  – 95 points – OVER

And that player is Drew Brees.

ThriveFantasy is forcing us to take a small discount to take Brees, but just five points is not even close to make me think otherwise. You got to do a lot better than that to make me bet against Drew Brees this week.

Brees has more wins against Atlanta than any other team in the NFL. But it’s not just the wins, he has more touchdowns and yards against them than anyone else too.  According to PFF, he’s at home this week, Atlanta Falcons defense ranks worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback (0.70), and second-worst in opposing passer rating (117.3). New Orleans also has the highest implied point total of the slate (32.0), and by a good margin (+3.75). Of course, past performance doesn’t always indicate future results.

But with Atlanta allowing the third-most quarterback fantasy points? Take the 5% discount but the sure 95 points.

Alvin Kamara, Saints 70.5 rushing yards – 90 points – UNDER

While I’m taking the OVER on Brees, I’m taking the UNDER on Kamara. I actually like Kamara for fantasy purposes this week too. But I think his production comes through the air and via touchdowns.

Sean Payton has already confirmed what we suspect–Latavius Murray will be more involved this week:

I just don’t see Kamara getting 70 yards on the ground. But there is one other RB besides Barkley on the week 10 ThriveFantasy slate I see hitting the over.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings 91.5 rushing yards – 100 points – OVER

So I asked the big man in charge, Joe Bond, about my picks this week. I didn’t ask him so much for executive approval, but because Joe is killing it over on the FantasyPros Expert Picks Platform:

And just to be clear, that’s not four out of ten. The full list includes over 130 industry experts and Joe is fourth. Need I say more?

So anyway, Joe liked my picks for the week the most part, but he sent me this message: “I’m kinda thinking the under for rushing yards for Cook, but it’s close”. Here was my response:

“I definitely agree its close. And had it been an even 100, I definitely would have taken the under, as he’s actually averaging 99 rushing yards per game. But he’s eclipsed 91 yards in six of his nine games and the three that he didn’t he wasn’t even close. So my thought is that if he’s gonna be well short, it’s irrelevant as to whether he is five yards short or 30 yards short–you still get only 100 points but the actual likelihood is that he is between 90 and 100.

And given that Dallas is giving up just over 97 yards a game, I’d be surprised if Cook doesn’t come real close to that average. Now throw in the fact that Adam Thielen is also out this week, and I’d be surprised if Cook doesn’t get 25 carries this game. And if he does, he should easily surpass that mark. ”

Cooper Kupp, Rams 75.5 Receiving Yards – 90 points – OVER

I have already mentioned this week that I like Cooper Kupp. The Steelers‘ defensive passing numbers are steadily improving and are still being skewed by their miserable Week 1 against the Pats. That being said, the Steelers are still only the NFL’s 23rd-best passing defense. The Rams are coming off a bye, and there’s no Brandin Cooks this week to steal targets from Kupp.

I’m taking the easy 90 points. It will be just some of the many points I win on the ThriveFantasy Week 10 slate.


Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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