Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy Picks: Gone To The Dogs

on

Part of my “day job” requires going to various shows and events. And this week that included the Philadelphia Dog Show. So yes, my 2019 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy Picks is going to be loaded with dog references. I apologize in advance.

Moving on, the big dogs here at F6P and I had a little discussion about moving forward. Because unfortunately for me, I’ve been coming up just short a lot lately with my ThriveFantasy entries. My editors know I know my stuff, but I feel like I’ve been chasing my own tail. Was I being too aggressive? Was I being too conservative?

And that’s when we decided to teach this old dog some new tricks. Well, not actually new tricks, but a new tool. It was suggested that I use a tool created for BigGuyFantasySports called the PropBet Consistency Tool. It was created by Bob Lung, who I have had the pleasure of being on the same staff with before. I have a lot of respect for Bob and his work, so I was more than happy to give it a whirl.

Let’s just say we have found this man’s new best friend. It’s a very cool tool and I encourage you to check it out. It does have its share of shortcomings. For example, it has limited utility for players with limited data like Dwayne Haskins for example. Also, not all prop bets could be found on the tool for every player. But that’s nitpicking. I immediately incorporated it into my decision process.

Notice I said incorporate. I don’t treat any one source, stat, or model as gospel. I may or may not have reversed a pick if Bob’s creation was telling me otherwise. However, if nothing else I took a deeper look at my initial bet and considered how sure I was.

Enough gnawing at that bone, let’s “unleash” the Week 11 Thrive Fantasy Picks!

2019 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy Picks

Manage all your Fantasy teams in every league in just one place. Sign up to use the Fantasy Pros Playbook.

Grab ‘Em

Mark Andrews, Ravens 5.5 receptions – 85 Points – UNDER

Don’t mistake me taking the UNDER on Andrews as me thinking he does not have a good fantasy day. I have already said I like his chances to score this week. However, six catches is a lot of catches. Yes, he’s hauled in six passes in four of the Ravens nine games this year, including last week. However, let’s take a closer look at those nine games, shall we?

The four games in which Andrews caught six or more passes were Miami, Arizona, and the two games against Cincy. Not exactly the blue ribbon winners of the NFL this year. Conversely, in games against Seattle, Kansas City, and New England Andrews had three receptions or less. The Ravens have a potential playoff matchup against the Texans on tap this weekend. If the pattern holds true, Andrews is not catching a ton of balls this Sunday.

Furthermore, Houston has played some of the better tight ends this year including Austin Hooper, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce. Yet they are still the tenth best team in preventing TE fantasy points. This is a sleeping dog I’ll leave be thank you.

Todd Gurley, Rams 61.5 rushing yards – 90 Points – UNDER

Embed from Getty Images
Gurley actually had one of his better rushing weeks last week when he averaged over six yards a carry on his way to 73 rushing yards. But that tells you a lot. As Jeff Ratliffe details for our friends over at PFF here, Gurley is just not getting enough volume this year.

He’s only exceeded this week’s rushing yardage line in three of eight games. Throw in the Bears allowing the 9th fewest rushing yards per game, and I just have a lot more confidence in the under.

But there is at least one more under that got my tail wagging.

Matt Ryan Falcons 305.5 passing yards  – 105 points – UNDER

First off, the PropBet Consistency Tool and I were completely aligned on this one. As the tool recommends, “Take the under with caution”. But Bob’s tool stated that starting with yardage around 262, so at 305.5, I was very confident. And I should.

Ryan has four of nine games under 305 passing yards, including his last two under 200 passing yards. My guess is that he throws much closer to his career game average of 294 yards. But that’s still comfortably under our 305 mark.

Ryan’s game splits favor taking the under as well. The Falcons will be traveling to Carolina and Ryan has thrown for 70 less YPG against NFC vs AFC opponents. And those aforementioned Panthers are giving up the eighth fewest QB fantasy points.

All of that, plus an additional five points? This might be the chalkiest pick of the Week 11 ThriveFantasy slate! And that’s okay because next are the underdog picks.

Michael Thomas, Saints .5 Receiving TDs – 120 points – OVER

Embed from Getty Images
I have learned some good lessons this year.  One I am happy to share with you was something I discovered during an experiment on ThriveFantasy in Week 4. And that is unlike 15 years ago, fantasy studs are more likely NOT to score a TD than to score a TD. So you might be thinking, “one measly TD”? But trust me when I tell you that the odds are against it.

As the saying goes, you just never know. Take the Saints last week scoring only nine points. Admittedly, I did not see that coming. I loved the Saints last week and they let me down. But while some might be scared away, I am not one to just roll over and play dead.

Michael Thomas has yet to go three weeks this season without scoring. His last score was October 27th. Don’t even bother doing the math; that little factoid is just confirmation bias.

What I like is that Tampa Bay is even worse against receivers than Atlanta and have given up the third-most passing TDs this season.

Dwayne Haskins, Redskins 1.5 Passing TDs – 125 points – OVER

So this pick obviously comes with a huge amount of risk. Haskins hasn’t even thrown one NFL touchdown in all three games he played and I now expect him to throw two in one game? Yes, I do. The Jets are giving up an average of more than 25 fantasy points to quarterbacks a week. And I think it is far more likely that Haskins equals that mark by tossing a couple of TDs rather than topping 400 yards.

Sure, playing guys like Dak, TB12, and Wentz will inflate your opposing QB fantasy numbers. But the Jets have played the likes of Gardner, Fitz, and Danny Dimes the last three weeks. Why am I being silly about this? Because I am highlighting the serious fact that the Jets D has given up three passing touchdowns each of the last three weeks.

And we don’t even need three. Just two. Yes, it is aggressive. But that’s mitigated by the 25% bonus ThriveFantasy is giving us by taking the OVER. I was hesitant at first, but the more I thought about, it’s one of my favorite options on the Week 11 ThriveFantasy slate.


Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

Recommended for you

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.