Fantasy Sports

2019 NFL Week 3 ThriveFantasy Prop Bet Picks

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Full disclosure: I failed to cash with my ThriveFantasy entry last week. The part that smarts is Iwasthisfreakingclose! I bet on Jimmy Garoppolo last week and he responded with nearly 300 passing yards and three touchdowns. Alas, he also had one interception. Had he not thrown that lone INT, I would have cashed. I know, horseshoes and hand grenades. But had I won, I would have upped the stakes. Now, my week 3 ThriveFantasy picks are going to be limited to another $2 entry this week.

Should I cash this week, the entry amount will be increased. As I reminder I was feeling less confident last week. This week, I’m feeling good.

Before getting to the Week 3 ThriveFantasy picks, just a quick review of what ThriveFantasy is. Similar to a regular DFS game, the entry with the most points wins a large percentage of the pot. The dollar amounts continue to descend with only a minority of the entries winning.

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What makes ThriveFantasy different is that you are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are assigned points respectively. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

I have been providing one bet I have stayed away from and four bets I really liked. However, as I said, I’m feeling confident, so I will do the same thing again this week for the Week 3 ThriveFantasy picks, but I’ll give you five instead of four.

Once again, I will start with a bet I’m avoiding. The good news is there are far fewer of these in the Week 3 ThriveFantasy slate than Week 2.

2019 NFL Week 3 ThriveFantasy Prop Bet Picks

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Stay Away

Larry Fitzgerald – O/U 58.5 yards – 85/115 Points

So many things I don’t like about this line. First off, this line is very close to the fifty-four yards our friends at PFF our predicting for Fitzgerald this weekend. I respect the analysis that PFF does, but there’s very little market discrepancy to take advantage of here.

Secondly, I never bet against Fitzgerald. Henceforth, I am not venturing near the under, especially since Fitzgerald is averaging well over 100 yards per game this season.

Plus, if I took the over, that’s a 15-point hit by doing so. And that assumes, of course, Fitzgerald goes over that mark. Finally, that would assume PFF is more than 10% wrong in their projection.

I have no problem if PFF is wrong. I do, however, have a problem taking either side of this bet.

Grab ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes 2.5 Pass TDs – 115 Points – OVER

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Huh. This bet caught me by surprise. Not sure what ThriveFantasy is thinking, but to see this bet weighted like this was eye-opening. I guess ThriveFantasy figures most will suspect the Ravens defense can keep this game close. I am not one of those people.

Don’t get me wrong. The Ravens are a great defense. And I think they will keep Mahomes to just an average day. But an average day for Mahomes is three touchdowns.

They might be better if Jimmy Smith could play, but he will remain out.

 

Might not be until the 4th quarter, but I am confident that Mahomes ends the game with at least three touchdowns. Our next bet is a quarterback who let’s just say inspires less confidence.

Jameis Winston – 2.5 Total Pass TDs + Int – 100 Points – OVER

I don’t think Winston passes for more than two touchdowns. I don’t think he throws more than two interceptions. But I don’t have to select just one and I’m getting a combination of the two? I think Arians at least tries to have Winston beat the beleaguered Giant secondary. Tries equals interceptions or touchdowns. I’ll take it, thank you. Moving on….

Juju Smith-Schuster – 0.5 Rec TDs – 125 Points – OVER

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Lots of reasons not to like this bet. San Francisco has been playing tough defense, albeit against the Bengals and Bucs. The Steelers meanwhile will be starting their quarterback hope of the future in Mason Rudolph. Rudolph has all of 19 professional passing attempts. Rudolph is unlikely to get to 50 career attempts before next week.

Even if Rudolph does air it out more than expected, it could be a big game for James Washington. Washington was teammates with Rudolph at OK State. But my gut is telling me Juju gets off the schnied this week. Since I’m getting the 25% bonus with that, the brain says go with the gut.

Ezekiel Elliott, 130 Rush + Rec Yards – 100 Points – OVER

When the Dolphins convince me they can stop being embarrassed, I will stop picking against them.

Devonta Freeman- 55.5 Rush Yards – 90 Points – UNDER

The Atlanta Falcon legal department is reviewing a potential termination case.  They’re reviewing if the unprofessional and offensive stats of 2.2 yards per carry that Devonta Freeman has provided so far is conduct unbecoming a starting NFL running back. Legal analysts believe termination is coming soon.

Kidding.

Well, I’m joking about the legal part. But unfortunately, I’m not joking about the 2.2 yards per carry part. I would be surprised if Freeman sees even a dozen carries this week, which makes it very doubtful he gets to 55+ yards. I think we are going to see the Ito Smith show this weekend. That show will make your Freeman stock worthless.

And this bet will just be one of many that I hit on the week 3 ThriveFantasy slate.


Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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