Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 NFL Week 5 ThriveFantasy Prop Bet Picks


Before I get to the 2019 NFL Week 5 ThriveFantasy slate, I need to get something off my chest (pun intended). Please know that I have done work for the Susan G. Komen Foundation. Additionally, those close to me have suffered from breast cancer. So please don’t think I am belittling breast cancer and breast cancer awareness.

But my message is simple: Seriously, NFL, enough with the breast cancer awareness month!

If players want to wear pink cleats or whatever for a month in support of their family members who are or have gone through breast cancer, I support it. And a contribution and an occasional PSA would be great. But the NFL spending just a week promoting it would be fine. A whole month with the NFL pushing it down my throat makes me weary.

I do realize that few eat, drink, and sleep professional football like I do. So maybe if I followed football less it would be less onerous. But I think part of my issue is that the NFL’s efforts come off as very fake. I have yet to be convinced that the NFL’s breast cancer awareness month is anything more than a p.r. stunt created to try and lure more female fans. I’m not sure who Goodell is trying to fool. As one friend of mine sharply quipped, “How about CTE Awareness Month?”

Maybe I’m just cranky after my dismal ThriveFantasy picks last week.  Back to picking the regular $2 over/under slate. As usual, I will start with a bet I’m avoiding and then give you four others I like.  Go ahead and read my Week 5 ThriveFantasy picks below. I need to go answer the door. Apparently, there are two men in dark suits and dark glasses who want to speak with me.

2019 NFL Week 5 ThriveFantasy Prop Bet Picks

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Stay Away

Gardner Minshew, Jaguars – O/U 220.5 passing yards – 90/110 Points

The under is definitely tempting. For one, there is this:

Additionally, in three of four games this year Minshew has passed for less than 220 yards. Furthermore, Carolina is giving up the sixth-fewest quarterback fantasy points this year.

But doesn’t 220 yards feel like a really low bar in the modern NFL era? Nineteen out of 30 teams’ quarterback threw for more than 220 yards last week. And that includes Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph who threw 30 times or less as their teams enjoyed comfortable leads and had no need to pass. And of the 11 teams that did not, recall that three of those (BUF, WAS, and CHI) had two quarterbacks with double-digit attempts. If you combine both quarterbacks passing numbers, that brings the total to 22 or nearly 75%.

I don’t think the Min-Show passes for 300 yards this week. But 225? That’s low enough to balance out the multiple reasons to take the under. However, I said balance, not tilt towards. I’m fading this bet.

Grab ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs 332.5 passing yards – 100 Points – OVER

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I am not betting against Patrick Mahomes. Yes, I know he did very little last week. Do you think he’s going to have two bad weeks in a row?

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 105 Rush + Rec Yards – 80 Points – OVER

I think ThriveFantasy has a stipulation in their by-laws that they have to have a Zeke bet every week. And I’ve been tracking them–he’s hit the over every time. I wish they would raise the bar and give us more points for taking the over. But it’s fine. I will take the easy points and move to the next bet.

Davante Adams, Packers 5.5 Recs – 115 Points – UNDER

At the time this article was submitted, Adams was doubtful to play Sunday. I love being able to get in early on these bets. Should Adams play, he might be little more than a decoy. And even if he is completely fine to play, he still has to catch six passes for me to lose this bet. Twice this year he exceeded that number, twice he hasn’t.

And should ThriveFantasy take this bet off the board, I’m happy with my two ICE (In case of an emergency) bets that they make you pick every week. This is another easy one. But not the easiest.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings 106.5 Total Yards – 100 point – OVER

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This is the easiest bet on the board. The counter-argument is that Cook had a measly 70 combined yards last week; furthermore, his opponent this week, the Giants, held Washington to only 55 rushing yards this week. Recency bias anyone?

To be honest, this is a pretty good line that ThriveFantasy set, as our friends over at PFF project Cook to get 111 combined yards. But PFF’s projections land on the OVER side. Furthermore, PFF’s projections have seemed to be on the conservative side. I think Cook will tear up the Giants defense.

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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