Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 1-10-19

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After a long and exhausting holiday season, I am finally back in the swing of things. My apologies for the long lay off.

Daily Fantasy Hockey has my full attention now.

Nothing like starting again on a monster 12 game slate, so let’s get to it.


NHL DFS Picks 1-10-19

Vegas

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GAMEAWAY GOALIEHOME GOALIE
DAL-130@PHI, 6uKhudobinHart
TOR-170@NJ, 6uHutchinsonKinkaid
NYI-143@NYR, 6uLehnerLundqvist
NSH@CBJ-130, 6uSarosKorpisalo
WAS@BOS-143, 6uHoltbyHalak
CAR@TB-205, 6.5uMrazekVasilevskiy
WPG@MIN-110, 6uHellebuyckDubnyk
MTL@STL-113, 6uPriceBinnington
FLA@EDM-140, 6uLuongoTalbot
SJ@VGK-140, 6uJonesFleury
ARI@VAN-127, 5.5uKuemperMarkstrom
OTT@LA-210, 6uUNDECIDEDQuick

Special Teams

TEAMGPPP/GPP%PK/GPK%
Tampa Bay433.3429.93.282.6
Winnipeg423.0729.52.9580.6
Boston433.1828.52.9581.1
Florida413.6273.0279.8
San Jose45325.22.6883.5
Toronto422.6622.32.5979.8
Dallas442.5622.13.0482.8
Washington423.0921.53.5778
Ottawa433.0421.42.8373.8
Minnesota422.921.32.9283.7
Edmonton432.9521.33.0477.9
Vegas463.0219.42.9183.6
NY Rangers422.8319.33.3375.7
St. Louis413.07193.2979.3
New Jersey423.2318.43.2385.3
Vancouver453.2817.63.3378
Arizona423.2316.93.0788.4
Carolina423.3816.93.0980.8
NY Islanders412.9515.72.9277.5
Nashville443.3115.13.0282
Los Angeles442.7514.92.9574.6
Philadelphia432.9713.33.1875.2
Columbus422.9712.82.6980.5
Montreal443.2512.63.2578.3

Key Statistics

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Note that Nicklas Backstrom was sick on Tuesday and there is no current news as of me writing this about his status for this slate.

Also, Zach Hyman has not been activated from the DL yet but is listed in two places as being on the first line.

LINETEAMSALARYTOICF%HDCF/60HDCA/60
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-WilsonWAS1209006349.2412.3811.42
Vrana-Eller-OshieWAS2136001059.091812
Marchand-Bergeron-PastrnakBOS12260026854.8311.418.73
Debrusk-Krejci-BackesBOS21210027428.888.88
Hyman-Tavares-MarnerTOR11870037652.0215.4711.32
Johnsson-Matthews-KapanenTOR2177006561.7211.078.3
Bratt-Hischier-PalmieriNJ1153007547.9512.87.2
Wood-Zajac-ColemanNJ212700153648
Lee-Nelson-EberleNYI11580023348.4613.1311.58
Beauviller-Barzal-BaileyNYI21610028052.2211.7810.92
Kreider-Zibanejad-FastNYR11480012152.1217.3512.39
Zuccarello-Chytil-StromeNYR296001860.713.333.33
Benn-Seguin-RadulovDAL12080030752.3415.6310.74
Shore-Spezza-CondraDAL287001854.8416.6610
Giroux-Couturier-KonecnyPHI116400283619.119.11
Lindblom-Patrick-VoracekPHI21120015647.7112.698.84
Forsberg-Johansen-ArvidssonNSH11820015059.2917.68.4
Fiala-Sissons-SmithNSH21380019409.4718.94
Bjorkstrand-Dubois-AtkinsonCBJ1168001855.563.3310
Panarin-Wennberg-DuclairCBJ2124003556.9827.4210.28
McGinn-Aho-TeravainenCAR1150005246.673.468.07
Svechnikov-Wallmark-MartinookCAR21040012159.2613.3810.41
Palat-Stamkos-KillornTB1164003255.5611.255.62
Johnson-Point-KucherovTB22140011753.1913.339.74
Tatar-Danault-GallagherMON11580021761.0817.6911.05
Drouin-Domi-ArmiaMON21540014488.574.28
Schwartz-Schenn-TarasenkoSTL1155006750.3917.017.16
Fabbri-O'Reilly-PerronSTL213500----
Connor-Scheifele-WheelerWPG1194007550.357.214.4
Laine-Little-RoslovicWPG212800----
Greenway-Staal-GranlundMIN1139002951.6712.412.06
Parise-Coyle-KuninMIN2139006749.6714.324.47
Huberdeau-Barkov-DadonovFLA1191006054.241514
Vatrano-Borgstrom-HoffmanFLA2140003848.281.577.89
Khaira-McDavid-KassianEDM1136001537.841224
Lucic-RNH-PuljujarviEDM2113004441.566.815.45
Keller-Stepan-FischerARI1133003353.4216.3616.36
Panik-Richardson-HinostrozaARI2111006153.7712.787.86
Goldobin-Horvat-BoeserVAN1154005744.769.479.47
Baertschi-Granlund-VirtanenVAN210800462.5015
Sorensen-Thornton-PavelskiSJ11280012258.3714.2612.29
Radil-Couture-MeierSJ2157008562.2612.77.05
Kane-Hertl-DoonskoiSJ3155007167.7718.597.6
Marchessault-Karlsson-PaciorettyVGK1172001644.8311.2515
Pirri-Stastny-TuchVGK218800616010.818.85
Tkachuk-White-StoneOTT11540024852.2913.549.43
Balcers-Tierney-BoedkerOTT210000933.336.660
Kovalchuk-Kopitar-BrownLA1155003339.2212.7210.9
Iafallo-Carter-LeipsicLA21190026502.36.92

Line Matching

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LINETEAMOPP LINETEAM
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-WilsonWAS1Debrusk-Krejci-BackesBOS2
Vrana-Eller-OshieWAS2Marchand-Bergeron-PastrnakBOS1
Hyman-Tavares-MarnerTOR1Bratt-Hischier-PalmieriNJ1
Johnsson-Matthews-KapanenTOR2Wood-Zajac-ColemanNJ2
Lee-Nelson-EberleNYI1Kreider-Zibanejad-FastNYR1
Beauviller-Barzal-BaileyNYI2Zuccarello-Chytil-StromeNYR2
Benn-Seguin-RadulovDAL1Giroux-Couturier-KonecnyPHI1
Shore-Spezza-CondraDAL2Lindblom-Patrick-VoracekPHI2
Forsberg-Johansen-ArvidssonNSH1Bjorkstrand-Dubois-AtkinsonCBJ1
Fiala-Sissons-SmithNSH2Panarin-Wennberg-DuclairCBJ2
McGinn-Aho-TeravainenCAR1Johnson-Point-KucherovTB2
Svechnikov-Wallmark-MartinookCAR2Erne-Cirelli-GourdeTB3
Ferland-McKegg-WilliamsCAR3Palat-Stamkos-KillornTB1
Tatar-Danault-GallagherMON1Fabbri-O'Reilly-PerronSTL2
Drouin-Domi-ArmiaMON2Sanford-Thomas-MaroonSTL3
Lehkonen-Kotkaniemi-ByronMON3Schwartz-Schenn-TarasenkoSTL1
Connor-Scheifele-WheelerWPG1Zucker-Koivu-NiederreiterMIN3
Laine-Little-RoslovicWPG2Parise-Coyle-KuninMIN2
Perrault-Lowry-TanevWPG3Greenway-Staal-GranlundMIN1
Huberdeau-Barkov-DadonovFLA1Khaira-McDavid-KassianEDM1
Vatrano-Borgstrom-HoffmanFLA2Rieder-Draisaitl-ChiassonEDM3
Brouwer-McCann-MalginFLA3Lucic-RNH-PuljujarviEDM2
Keller-Stepan-FischerARI1Goldobin-Horvat-BoeserVAN1
Panik-Richardson-HinostrozaARI2Baertschi-Granlund-VirtanenVAN2
Sorensen-Thornton-PavelskiSJ1Marchessault-Karlsson-PaciorettyVGK1
Radil-Couture-MeierSJ2Pirri-Stastny-TuchVGK2
Kane-Hertl-DoonskoiSJ3Carpenter-Nosek-EakinVGK3
Tkachuk-White-StoneOTT1Kovalchuk-Kopitar-BrownLA1
Balcers-Tierney-BoedkerOTT2Iafallo-Carter-LeipsicLA2

I am unsure about where Vegas ends up playing their first line, but I have a feeling it may be split between SJ1 and SJ3, so I have them sitting against 1 for now. All three of those San Jose lines are solid and no glaring weakness, so no real advantage anywhere matchup-wise.

Heating Up

LINEGFGACF%PDO
TB211650.4106
CBJ110561.6103
SJ39566.996
MTL18357.2108
NYI26355.3104
STL26062.6112
MIN26352.1104.8
WPG16351.3107
NYI16047.8120

GPP Stacks

Power Plays (Popular/Chalk)

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TB2 – Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov – Defensemen Add-On – Victor Hedman

Though very expensive, I imagine the hottest line in hockey will still have some ownership tonight. Nothing to argue with here, other than the price. You could also argue for a power-play stack here, which Tampa is clicking at a near 30% rate on the PP.

SJ3 – Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl, and Joonas Donskoi – Defensemen Add-On – Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson

This line is on absolute fire and is easily the most talented 3rd line on any team right now. San Jose has spread out their talent across 3 lines, and it is paying dividends. I expect this line to be pretty popular considering the price tag, and I’ll have my shares as well. Fire them up.

These two lines stick out to me, but as far as chalk goes, I do not know what else will truly be popular on a slate this size. This is one of those days we need not be worried about ownership, and just play what you feel is best.

I’d also like the outline that this may be the first time I haven’t recommended EDM1, mostly because the lines got shuffled and Draisaitl is off of McDavid’s line. If you want to play EDM1, it probably hasn’t been cheaper all season, but the talent level around McDavid is severely diminished.

EDIT: Draisaitl is now BACK to EDM1 with McDavid and Chiasson, and as expected, I have some interest in them here.

Mid-Range/Value Dump Ins

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STL1 – Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, and Vladimir Tarasenko – Defensemen Add-On – Colton Parayko

This is a line with a lot of even-strength love going on. Tarasenko is starting to look like what he has in year’s past, despite the Blues’ struggles over the last few years. This is certainly their most talented line, and even though its all broken up on the power-play, I still like the matchup against MON3. The price is right, too.

MON1 – Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault, and Brendan Gallagher – Defensemen Add-On – Jeff Petry

I admit I was not on this line at all initially. Their possession numbers have been incredible all season, but they never seem to really stack up correctly, or I can’t ever be on this line on a night where they go off. Well, tonight is the night. The unfortunate part is that they get the rough matchup of the O’Reilly line, but STL is rolling out some goalie named Binnington that I have never heard of before the other day. He can’t shutout every team, and one goal may open the floodgates.

I would not invest a ton in this line, this is more of a quality dart throw for me tonight.

CBJ1 – Oliver Bjorkstrand, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Cam Atkinson – Defensemen Add-On – Seth Jones


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With Panarin off the line, they seem to have done well without him. They will see NSH1, which usually isn’t any sort of cake-walk, but Nashville did play an OT game last night in Chicago. They also have plenty of talent to deal with Ryan Johansen. CBJ1 always has been good to me, and I hope tonight is no different.

EDIT: Foligno skated this morning, and is likely to draw back into the lineup, throwing all the lines back to where they once were. I still like CBJ1, they just got a little more expensive.

NYI2 – Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, and Anthony Beauvillier

I just really love Barzal right now. He is starting to pick up the base, and the 3B line is clicking pretty well over the last 10 games. They haven’t generated a ton of high-danger chances, but NYR2 is not the most talented 2nd line I have ever seen. NYI is a pretty big favorite for a visiting team, so I have to think they hit the scoresheet here.

Contrarian Corner

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FLA1 – Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Evgeni Dadonov – Defensemen Add-On – Keith Yandle

This is pretty expensive considering what we are talking about here, but they should see the bulk of McDavid’s line, who in a small sample size has given up 24 high-danger chances per 60, and this is a line that can take advantage. Combine that with a 27% PP rate going against EDM’s sad 77% PK rate, and we could have a slate breaker here.

CBJ2 – Artemi Panarin, Alexander Wennberg, and Anthony Duclair

In a short sample size with Foligno out, this line has created an obscene amount of high-danger chances. If Foligno stays out tonight, this could a sneaky (and cheap!) little play against a tired Nashville second line.

EDIT: Foligno may be in, and if he is, this is a no-play for me. Stay posted with the latest news.

SJ2 – Lukas Radil, Logan Couture, and Timo Meier

This is more of a pivot off of the SJ3 chalk. Both SJ1 and SJ2 have been playing well also, just not been lighting the world on fire as much. The price is right, and they can fill the net just as likely as SJ3. This could end up being some pretty good leverage.

Gut Calls

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NOTE: These are not slam dunk plays, and just what my gut is telling me about the slate.

VGK1 – Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Max Pacioretty

This looks like not a great matchup with SJ1, but Thornton (and at this point, Pavelski) are not known for their speed. I think Vegas can get them in the transition and do some damage. This line and I have some history and its hard for me to ignore them on any slate. Pacioretty also hit something like 3 posts/crossbars last game, so he is due.

TB1 – Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos, and Alex Killorn

Ok, so this is far from any sort of bold call, and anyone who stacks TBPP1 will get Stamkos and Palat in their lineups anyway, but here is what I am thinking. I have this weird feeling about Alex Killorn. He isn’t the youngest talent on the team, that’s for sure, and box score watchers will cross him right off, but the way Tampa has been lining up Stamkos for success, they get a juicy matchup in CAR3 which features old man Williams, and Greg the Kegg.

I just have this weird feeling its one of those Alex Killorn two-goal nights that the PP stacks miss out on all the production. Just a gut feeling.

Netminders

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As usual, I will normally correlate my netminder with one of my stacked teams, but if I am ranking them based on raw points, these are my favorites:

1. Quick – Ottawa is bad and getting worse, also on a B2B.

2. Vasilevskiy – Big home favorite on the best team.

3. Lehner – Visiting team goalie, but the Rangers have been bad lately.

4. Hutchinson (GPP Only) – Toronto should still get the win here, it’s just a matter of how many he lets in.

5. Fleury (GPP Only) – Ultimate leverage on the Sharks chalk

Breakaway

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It is of utmost importance to not go overboard on big slates like this. There will be plenty of plays you want to get in, but don’t let your bankroll get wrecked because of it.

I know, because I have been guilty of this in the past. Discipline goes a long way here, so unless you are multi-entering, I would avoid making more than 3-5 lineups. Just my opinion.

While my process is what I go over here, you have to find what is working for you – your process. I can guide you here and there if you need direction, but ultimately you are the one making the choices, building the lineups, and risking the money.

My work here is going to be more consistent here, and get out some non-picks articles. I realize I have been saying that for two months now, but I have a clear mind and a clearer schedule, and I am ready to go for you guys.


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Let’s start the year off right – and kill this slate.

Stay frosty.

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About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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