Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 Open Championship Tiered Rankings

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With the 2019 Open Championship upon us, it’s time for our tiered rankings again.

These rankings come with a caveat though, the data I had available on many of the golfers in question was lacking.  This is either because they don’t regularly play in the PGA because they are more or less already retired, play in Europe, or are newcomers.  So basically, if it’s an Ernie Els, Paul Lawrie or Doc Redman and you believe in them strongly, feel free to bump them up on your personal rankings.

For example, I believe in Doc Redman much more than these tiers rank him and a sports betting syndicate that I’m part of is voting right now on whether to put in top 10 bets on Lee Westwood, another guy who doesn’t come off well here in the rankings.  As always, the math behind golf is very fuzzy and never complete so if you have a conviction then follow it.

The methodology here is I take my model for DFS and reformat it for an overall and price/ownership ignorant rankings.

2019 Open Championship Tiered Rankings

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The Double Bogey Tier

David Duval
Richard Sterne
Andrew Wilson
Gunn Charoenkul
Ashton Turner
In-Choon Hwang
Paul Lawrie
Yuki Inamori
Takumi Kanaya
Thomas Thurloway
Isidro Benitez
Connor Syme
Mikumu Horikawa
Sam Locke
Alex Noren
Robert Rock
Prom Meesawat
Dong-Kyu Jang
Matthew Baldwin
Garrick Porteous
Dimitrios Papadatos

Friends don’t let friends play anyone from the double bogey tier in DFS golf.  I had an issue with matching up some of the data for Alex Noren so he probably doesn’t belong in this tier but maybe the tier above, since he’s still rostera non grata for me in DFS golf, I couldn’t be bothered to fix it and move him up a tier.  Having accurate data on Alex Noren or not, he’s still unplayable.  There’s a time for accuracy, and there’s a time to not waste time, bothering to get projections on the Alex Noren’s of the world belongs in the latter category.

The Bogey Tier

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Cameron Smith
Tom Lewis
Erik van Rooyen
Andy Sullivan
Brandon Stone
Branden Grace
Mikko Korhonen
Andrew Putnam
Jimmy Walker
Shubhankar Sharma
Sang-Hyun Park
J.B. Holmes
Dylan Frittelli
C.T. Pan
Jazz Janewattananond
Andrea Pavan
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Shaun Norris
Paul Waring
Sung Kang
Stewart Cink
Si Woo Kim
Brian Harman
Chan Kim
Patton Kizzire
Andrew Johnston
Robert MacIntyre
Callum Shinkwin
Romain Langasque
David Lipsky
Zander Lombard
Austin Connelly
Oliver Wilson
Jake McLeod
James Sugrue
Adri Arnaus
Brandon Wu
Matthias Schmid
Miguel Angel Jimenez
Jack Senior
Doyeob Mun
Darren Clarke
Yoshinori Fujimoto
Ernie Els
Curtis Knipes
Padraig Harrington
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Kurt Kitayama
Yosuke Asaji
Tom Lehman
Doc Redman

There’s a few guys here who could be pretty good.  I especially like Redman (who is penalized for not having a large enough sample size of data) but again, there are just so many other options with better expectations that you’ll need to give yourself a compelling reason to play any of these guys in DFS other than using the crutch of ownership.

The Par Tier

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Matt Wallace
Abraham Ancer
Ian Poulter
Billy Horschel
Haotong Li
Shane Lowry
Jordan Spieth
Lucas Bjerregaard
Charley Hoffman
Brandt Snedeker
Adam Hadwin
Luke List
Kevin Kisner
Ryan Palmer
Chris Wood
Patrick Reed
Jorge Campillo
Ryan Fox
Aaron Wise
Kyle Stanley
Thomas Pieters
Alexander Bjork
Graeme McDowell
Rory Sabbatini
Adrian Otaegui
Joel Dahmen
Joost Luiten
Bubba Watson
Phil Mickelson
Justin Harding
Mike Lorenzo-Vera
Keith Mitchell
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Alexander Levy
Lee Westwood
Yuta Ikeda
Shugo Imahira

This tier is what it is, a group that could be alright but unlikely to do much of anything.  I find some names should be a little higher and then others which are downright shocking to find this low.  Watson, Mickelson, Spieth, & Reed are not typically found on any rankings this far down.  I don’t think I necessarily agree they belong this far down, but it’s enough conviction from my model for me to fade them in DFS play.

The Birdie Tier

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Corey Conners
Emiliano Grillo
Russell Knox
Byeong Hun An
Tony Finau
Marc Leishman
Jason Kokrak
Kevin Streelman
Louis Oosthuizen
Zach Johnson
Joaquin Niemann
Tyrrell Hatton
Nate Lashley
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Eddie Pepperell
Thorbjorn Olesen
Sungjae Im

This is a list of guys who I believe could all easily have very fine outings.  I’m surprised to see Finau this low but he’s also been playing pretty poorly, same with Kokrak but his presence this low is much less shocking.  There’s actually a lot of players here I like for DFS, a pool I’ll likely be dipping into with regularity.

The Eagle Tier

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Gary Woodland
Tiger Woods
Brooks Koepka
Rickie Fowler
Matt Kuchar
Sergio Garcia
Tommy Fleetwood
Bryson DeChambeau
Webb Simpson
Henrik Stenson
Chez Reavie
Jim Furyk
Francesco Molinari
Jason Day
Keegan Bradley
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Lucas Glover

I think there are some big surprises here.  Notably, Woods and Koepka not being in the first tier.  This just isn’t really the best course for either of them and with so many other elite golfers, it’s hard to be in the top 10 when your health is suspect and it’s a bad fit for your playing style.  I think Keegan Bradley and Mathew Fitzpatrick are a little surprising to see this high as well but I doubt I’ll be dipping into them unless their DFS prices make them quite affordable.

The Champion Tier

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Rory McIlroy
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Cantlay
Adam Scott
Jon Rahm
Justin Rose
Hideki Matsuyama
Justin Thomas
Paul Casey
Xander Schauffele

It’s the usual suspects here, but Patrick Cantlay and Adam Scott are much higher than they usually are.  I haven’t run my optimizer yet, but I’ll likely be heavy on both of them because this is very surprising to see them this high.  Cantlay may be pretty chalky but it’s unlikely Scott gains much ownership.

Edit: Apparently, I’m not the only one touting Scott this week, looks like his ownership should be much higher than I previously anticipated.  While it’s annoying to have been so wrong about him being unowned, it is reassuring that someone that shocked me to be placed so highly is highly touted by others as well.

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Good luck everyone!


Click here to read Mark’s Open Championship Deep Sleepers

About DFSx42

DFSx42 is a tech consultant who built his own models for DFS. He's a cash game specialist that primarily plays on Yahoo as "Adam" where you can see his H2Hs for every sport and every slate. Recently finished 5th overall in the Yahoo Cup, a season long DFS league with over 100k competitors. Yahoo Cup Standings

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  1. Pingback: 2019 Open Championship Deep Sleepers: The Return to Royal Portrush - Fantasy Six Pack

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