Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 PGA Championship Tiered Rankings & Betting Guide

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Hi everyone, after 2 weeks of travel I am back in time for the majors.

This list is a little premature but I wanted to get it out sooner rather than later.  Right now it doesn’t yet account for course fit, which tends to take a bit longer to determine – yet is still a pretty important metric.  Once course fit analysis is finished, I’ll post an update to this tiered rankings.

Edit: I’ve updated the rankings, surprisingly, course fit didn’t factor in significantly.  Most players only moved up or down one or two spots, which in the world of golf is entirely meaningless.  I’ve left them as is.


We should remember that this is an aggregate ranking.  This doesn’t include ownership or pricing considerations.  This ranking is a derivative of the data I use to construct DFS lineups and not actually used in my model itself.  It’s just a simple summary meant for human rather than algorithmic consumption.

I primarily play on Yahoo, which typically has the lowest rake.  It doesn’t have those 6 figure payouts people like but if you aren’t interested in competing against tens of thousands of people in what essentially plays like a winner take all then Yahoo is a great option because of it’s low rake.

2019 PGA Championship Tiered Rankings & Betting Guide

Take these tiers to the driving range and win some money playing Yahoo DFS Golf.
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Bogey Tier

If you really like someone here from Stone to Harrington, I think you can make an exception.  But anyone from Michael Kim and below should be considered untouchable.  Varner has been getting some hype, I hope he gets more, I won’t go anywhere near any of these guys.

Brandon Stone
Martin Kaymer
Jason Dufner
Richy Werenski
Harold Varner III
Y.E. Yang
Troy Merritt
Padraig Harrington
Michael Kim
Steve Stricker
Vijay Singh
Danny Balin
Rich Beem
Ryan Vermeer
Alex Beach
Justin Bertsch
John Daly
Rich Berberian, Jr.
Shaun Micheel
Craig Hocknull
Andrew Filbert
Rod Perry
Stuart Deane
Casey Russell
Kelly Kraft
Craig Bowden
Marty Jertson

Par Tier

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These are guys I’d avoid if possible but can see making a case for playing some of them.  I haven’t run my lines yet but will be unlikely I don’t mix in a few of these guys.  Champ is someone I really enjoying blowing up gpp lines with, I really like his potential and will likely use him as a dart here or there in gpps regardless of what the model says to do.  There’s also some decent cash plays here that should make the cut, they just lack the upside to be ranked higher.  Satoshi should be in the Bogey tier but scrapes by from excelling at some metrics meant to massage other regions rather than be a ticket to a higher tier.

Jazz Janewattananond
Chesson Hadley
Tom Lewis
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Zach Johnson
Alexander Bjork
Adrian Otaegui
Lee Westwood
Pat Perez
Sung Kang
Joel Dahmen
Russell Knox
Dylan Frittelli
Danny Lee
Max Homa
Danny Willett
Thomas Pieters
Brian Harman
Mikko Korhonen
Michael Thompson
Kevin Tway
Julian Suri
Adam Hadwin
Shugo Imahira
Kurt Kitayama
Cameron Champ
Shaun Norris
Joost Luiten
Erik van Rooyen
Ross Fisher
Satoshi Kodaira
Patton Kizzire
Ryan Fox
Sam Burns
Adam Long
Lucas Herbert
Jimmy Walker
Mike Lorenzo-Vera
Brian Gay
Bronson Burgoon
Ryan Armour
Joaquin Niemann
Martin Trainer
David Lipsky
Beau Hossler
Graeme McDowell
Richard Sterne
J.J. Spaun

Birdie Tier

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Here we finally get into a group of people with a real expectation to have some impact performances.  I have no idea who Campillo is, but my model seems to believe if he makes the cut then he has a very good chance at a deep finish.  It doesn’t think he’ll make the cut though.  I personally disagree with this assessment and think this is more just where the model does what it can with limited data and gives some odds results in edge cases like this.  I would manually move him to the Bogey Tier, but who knows, so he stays here for now, just with a mental asterisk.  Maybe I’ll throw him in a lineup with Champ in yolo line.

Lucas Glover
Patrick Reed
Justin Harding
Jason Kokrak
Kyle Stanley
Byeong Hun An
Matt Wallace
Haotong Li
Ryan Moore
Henrik Stenson
Chez Reavie
Ryan Palmer
Kevin Na
Eddie Pepperell
Corey Conners
Alex Noren
Lucas Bjerregaard
Emiliano Grillo
Jhonattan Vegas
Scott Piercy
J.B. Holmes
Aaron Wise
Charles Howell III
Jorge Campillo
Daniel Berger
Keith Mitchell
Thorbjorn Olesen
C.T. Pan
Sungjae Im
Charley Hoffman
Abraham Ancer
Branden Grace
Brandt Snedeker
Tyrrell Hatton
Si Woo Kim
Shane Lowry
Andrew Putnam
Luke List

EAGLE TIER

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Here’s a list of guys the model is really high on.  Seems to be a pretty standard list.  I view this more on who not to play rather than whom to play.  For example, some of the more expensive guys like Molinari appear here, implying they are possibly good fade options.

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Marc Leishman
Cameron Smith
Ian Poulter
Bubba Watson
Adam Scott
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Jim Furyk
Francesco Molinari
Tommy Fleetwood
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sergio Garcia
Tony Finau
Gary Woodland
Billy Horschel
Keegan Bradley
Jordan Spieth

18 Champions

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Here is my top 18 golfers for the event.  The guys at the top are pretty predictable but then there are a couple of major surprises.  I know a lot of people have been talking up Cantlay, but not at 5th.  Tiger surprises me appearing this high, it’s likely inflated due to Vegas never giving him real odds due to heavy betting volume but nevertheless, Vegas isn’t all that big an influence in these rankings, Tiger is a legit option if you aren’t afraid of the price and the chalk.

This is actually a decent argument for playing on Fanduel where they refund the entry fee if Tiger wins.  As unlikely as it is to happen, it’s still enough of an edge to argue shifting your entries to Fanduel this week.

Lots of people have been down on Xander but my model seems to like him a lot.  Now he may plummet significantly after factoring in course fit, but he’s still just outside the top 10 right now.  I also think Oosthuizen and Kisner may surprise a few people appearing this high.  They certainly surprised me appearing this high.

Dustin Johnson
Rory McIlroy
Justin Rose
Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay
Tiger Woods
Bryson DeChambeau
Rickie Fowler
Jason Day
Brooks Koepka
Paul Casey
Matt Kuchar
Xander Schauffele
Webb Simpson
Hideki Matsuyama
Phil Mickelson
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Kisner

Betting Picks

These are some guys who I feel have odds that are proportionately greater than their chances of winning.  Meaning that if someone is a 95:1 odds golfer, I believe if we played this event 95 times, they’d win at least once.  As a rule, I can’t go with the highest guys as I don’t think someone like DJ, as good as he is, will win this 10% of the time to justify his Vegas odds.

The realistic possibilities

Justin Rose 19:1
Patrick Cantlay 42:1
Bryson DeChambeau 35:1
Paul Casey 48:1
Matt Kuchar 47:1
Marc Leishman 74:1

The 10k simulation profiteers

These are guys who would yield a profit if this event were played thousands of times.  It’s unlikely they actually win in a sample size of 1.  But if I were a betting man, these are the guys I’d distribute a single unit to and hope eventually it hits.

Cameron Smith 131:1
Corey Conners 216:1
Jim Furyk 163:1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 117:1
Keegan Bradley 129:1
Jorge Campillo 239:1
Alexander Bjork 443:1
Chesson Hadley 329:1

The bad bets

A bet on Brooks Koepka yields the worst odds with an ROI of -6%.  Tiger is 2nd worst at -5%.  He’s followed by DJ, Fleetwood, Molinaria and Spieth.  After that, everyone has an ROI of less than -2%, essentially making it a coin flip territory.

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If you are serious about betting on sports, a visit to Sports Analytics 24/7 could prove helpful.  I want to be clear though that all my research is my own, this is not an endorsement, I don’t personally use sites like that.  Just not everyone has the time and desire to build their own model like myself.


Good luck

About DFSx42

DFSx42 is a tech consultant who built his own models for DFS. He primarily plays on Yahoo as "Adam" where you can see his H2Hs for every sport and every slate. He is a top DFS player, most recently finishing 5th overall in the Yahoo Cup. https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/dfsx42/blog-posts

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