Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 Yahoo Best Ball Tiers

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Yahoo has added best ball (receive $10 worth of points when you sign up with this link), so I have created 2019 Yahoo Best Ball Tiers!

In celebration, I’m here with player rankings and positional tiers for the upcoming best ball Fantasy Football season on Yahoo.

Use this as advanced scouting to go into your drafts prepared to dominate.


For an introduction to best ball, check out part 1 of this series – an introduction to best ball

Part 3 is a positional guide for best ball, breaking down some of the nuances at each position.

2019 Yahoo Best Ball Tiers

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Overall Rankings

I personally try not to get too caught up in comparing values of players who play different positions.  Sometimes, you have a need to fill or a surplus to ignore so you gotta draft according to needs, not overall ranks.  If you just blindly followed the overall rankings, you’d end up with highly lopsided teams.  I would thus recommend you don’t get too caught up in the overall rankings and pay more attention to the relative value of players at the same position.

Quick Notes About the Rankings

These are far from exact, nor are they intended to be.  Treat them more as a template to guide you along in your draft.  A number of players here are ranked fairly differently than how they are pre-ranked by Yahoo and the general public.  I tend to wait on guys at the top of my rankings if it seems like they will still be around for at least another pick or two and you should too.   This way you can often end up with your first two options in instead of 1st and 4th options, but more importantly, if you are that far off from the crowd, it’s far more likely you are the one who is wrong.

It’s good to have convictions, but it’s better to hedge against them and gain draft equity.

The rankings also leave out a number of players, that’s intentional.  Only 200 players will be drafted total so you don’t need to bother ranking Willie Snead vs Albert Wilson.  If you like one of them, then add them to your personal rankings.

After the first 125 players, it’s a really subjective matter over whom belongs in the next 75 best ball roster spots.  So once the obvious guys are gone, it becomes very chaotic.  Mohamed Sanu was a top 100 fantasy producer last year.  Despite that, Sanu is usually not among the 200 players drafted.

Don’t Fall for the ADP Trap

Yahoo’s ADP has moved very little in the weeks that I’ve been tracking it.  I also suspect when someone goes undrafted, it doesn’t impact their ADP. This would explain why so many people who are often undrafted have an ADP that would indicate they are taken in the mid-rounds.  Furthermore, the slow movement of ADP adjustments means that the algorithm doesn’t include a recency bias.  At the time of writing this, Tyreek Hill‘s ADP has changed the most in the last week, but only by 6 slots despite jumping from a 5th-7th rounder to a 2nd rounder.

ADP is very useful as a barometer for guessing when an early-round pick will occur, but basically useless after first couple rounds.

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Jazz Hands Significantly Boost ADP

From first glance, all these guys apparently are round 11-14 value.  This would indicate they are all very good players you would be ecstatic to spend a 16th round pick on to get at a bargain.

However, many guys with impressive ADP aren’t really impressive at all and you probably shouldn’t use a mid round pick on some these guys.  Many of them usually go undrafted.

  • Marquise Brown drafted in 22% of leagues
  • Robert Foster drafted in 2% of leagues
  • Jamaal Williams drafted in 2% of leagues
  • Austin Hooper drafted in 82% of leagues
  • Nick Foles drafted in 2% of leagues
  • Philip Rivers drafted in 90% of leagues
  • Jason Witten drafted in 7% of leagues
  • Trey Burton drafted in 96% of leagues

As you can see, there’s a huge discrepancy here and if you use ADP as a metric after the first few rounds, it could trick you into believing some pretenders are not only worth drafting, but worth expending a mid-round pick upon.  Don’t fall for that trap.  It’s clearly an oversight in the Yahoo draft software logic that will lead others down dark pathways where you shouldn’t follow.

Having said all that that, I often draft the largely discarded Robert Foster and Jamaal Williams, but I have actual reasons for spending a late-round pick on them beyond their deceptively impressive ADP.

You also need to completely disregard all ADPs for QBs and DEF.  It’s a position everyone needs two of, but after the elite options, it’s pretty much dartboard territory.  With their beauty in the eye of the drafter, some of them will be drafted very early in one draft and not at all in the next quite ordinarily.

Final Thoughts About the Model

If you have a solid reason for disagreeing with the rankings then you’re probably correct.  This is something a lot of statistical modelers don’t broadcast enough, that we’re simply guessing ourselves.  We only make it sound more authoritative because some code told me what to do instead of my gut.

Poker taught me that the gut is often telling you something for a reason.  But… even if your hunch is wrong and the model is right (and vice versa) there’s enough luck for it not to matter.   How many times have we seen a TD get called back on a phantom foul? How often is QB “intercepted” because the receiver bobbled it in the air instead of catching it?

We should embrace that variance. If it were predictable, then fantasy sports wouldn’t exist.

So if owning the players you like makes it more fun then do it.  So long as you aren’t drafting him way too early, there’s no reason not to do it.

Have fun out there and good luck.

You should also check out Fantasy Six Pack’s official best ball rankings as well as our regular fantasy football rankings,

***I’ll be updating these rankings regularly

***The notes on each player are my own and regularly updated, please forgive the typos


 


Make sure to visit the F6P Fantasy Football Page for more advice to get you prepared for the 2019 season.

About DFSx42

DFSx42 is a tech consultant who built his own models for DFS. He's a cash game specialist that primarily plays on Yahoo as "Adam" where you can see his H2Hs for every sport and every slate. Recently finished 5th overall in the Yahoo Cup, a season long DFS league with over 100k competitors. Yahoo Cup Standings

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2 Comments

  1. Pingback: Yahoo Best Ball Introduction - Fantasy Six Pack

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