Fantasy Baseball

2020 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers-Fallers

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Welcome to the 2020 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers-Fallers watch post.

Just about every Fantasy Baseball draft is going to start the same way – Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr., and then some randomized order of Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole – according to average draft position (ADP).

Using NFBC ADP data, we will keep you up to date on the players that are climbing up draft boards and falling out of favor with owners.

2020 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers-Fallers

Free five-minute mock drafts against industry experts and custom analysis for your team with the FantasyPros Draft Wizard.

Our first look at ADP compares February 12-team leagues to January ADP.

We highlight the risers and fallers in the top 200.

Top 100 Picks – Risers

Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds, OF – ADP 97.93 (+15.42)

Embed from Getty Images

Castellanos was hovering right around his career averages on a bad Detroit Tigers team last year, before being traded to the Chicago Cubs. He hit .321 (.408 wOBA) with 21 doubles and 16 home runs in just 51 games (212) with the Cubbies.

He turned that into a four year $64 mil contract with the Cincinnati Reds.

Nick scored 100 runs for the first time in his career last year on the back of a career-high 58 doubles!

Despite three straight seasons of 30+ doubles and 20+ home runs, Castellanos is still barely a top 100 pick, according to NFBC ADP. We have him ranked almost a round higher in our Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings.

Roster Resource currently has him slotted 5th in the Reds lineup, behind Shogo Akiyama, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Mike Moustakas. That lineup could do some real damage this season!

Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves, OF – ADP 99.11 (+9.84)

Right behind Castellanos in outfield ADP is Ozuna, who signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves.

Prior to the 2018 MLB season, the Miami Marlins traded Marcell to the St. Louis Cardinals for Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Magneuris Sierra and Daniel Castano.

Over the past two seasons with the Red Birds, Ozuna hit 52 home runs, but just 39 doubles.

Despite a .241 batting average last season, Ozuna tallied 89 RBI and scored 80 runs in just 130 games (485 AB) thanks to a bump in his BB% to 11.3%. He did hit .280 in 2018.

He is the Braves cleanup hitter and will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman ahead of him in Atlanta’s lineup.

Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs – SP – ADP 59.16 (+7.66)

Darvish made some adjustments in the second half of last season, lowering his ERA from 5.01 pre All-Star Game to 2.76 post All-Star Game.

He saw an 11% increase in strikeout rate and saw his walk rate drop to just 2.2%, leading to a 35.6 K-BB%.

Only Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander had a better K-BB% in the second half of 2019.

Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics, RP – ADP 92.87 (+7.45)

Hendriks has been around since the 2011 season with the Minnesota Twins and owns a career ERA of 4.22.

Last year with Oakland he dominated batters to the tune of a 0.96 WHIP, .197 AVG and a 31 K-BB%. He appeared in 75 games and owned a 1.80 ERA over 85 innings pitched, saving 25 games. Steamer projects him for 30 saves in 2020.

Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox, SS – ADP 99.01 (+7.36) – @FantasyTriage

Not all trends should be followed, see flame bowling shirts.

Over the course of one month of NFBC drafting, White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson has steadily climbed into the top 100 overall. This seven-slot move saw Anderson take over as SS14, surpassing Houston Astros outspoken shortstop Carlos Correa.

I have no idea why those hideous shirts or Tim Anderson are a thing.

Anderson is being overvalued for his likely unsustainable 2019 batting average (.335) and American League batting title. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .399, nearly 100 points higher than the typical league average and also the highest of his career.

Take this added “luck” a step further, Tim outperformed his expected batting average (xBA) significantly on every pitch type he saw in 2019.

  • Fastball – xBA .325, BA .350
  • Breaking ball – xBA .256, BA .310
  • Offspeed – xBA .277, BA .352. 

If that isn’t enough to dissuade you from selecting Tim Anderson in drafts in 2020, perhaps noting he walked just 15 times in 518 plate appearances will. He led all of baseball with the worst strikeout-to-walk rate.

Just another huge red flag in a flawed hitter profile.

When Anderson’s batting average falls back to Earth (it will), what will you be left with? A poultry 17 home runs and 15 stolen bases with a .265 batting average. A statistical line that can be met rounds later with ease.

Don’t be that guy sporting flames on your shirt or Tim Anderson in your top 100 Fantasy Baseball players.

Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox, OF – ADP 78.03 (+7.25)

Despite signing a six-year $50 mil extension, it’s important to remember that Robert has zero MLB plate appearances.

This is not a great pick for those of you in OBP leagues as Steamer projects the rookie for a .318 OBP. And on top of that 25% strikeout rate.

Owners are drafting him for 20+ doubles, 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. The only other players projected to do that are top 25 picks:

Ronald Acuna Jr., Christian Yelich, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Trevor Story, Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr., Starling Marte – and Bo Bichette.

Should Robert live up to projections, he will be an absolute steal around pick 75. However, I am not willing to bet on that happening.

Top 100 Picks – Fallers

Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals, 2B/OF – ADP 57.65 (-8.16)

Whit Merrifield 2019 Statcast Fantasy Baseball
Merrifield is now entering his fifth MLB season and if you did not know, he is 31 years old.

A career .296 hitter, Whit has hit better than .300 in each of the last two seasons and he scored 105 runs last year.

After stealing 74 bases from 2017-18, Merrifield was just 20 for 30 in 2019.

Odds are, you are targeting Merrifield as a 2B in Fantasy drafts, not as an outfielder. Problem is, his current ADP makes him the only second baseman drafted in almost three rounds. That means you are potentially passing on Chris Paddack, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Matt Olson to select Merrifield, instead of pairing one of them with DJ LeMahieu, Max Muncy or Jeff McNeil at 2B.

Merrifield also doesn’t provide the power that some of the other options at his eligible positions and he doesn’t draw walks at a high rate.

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians, SP – ADP 32.17 (-8.74)

On Valentines Day, we received word that Clevinger would miss six-to-eight weeks after surgery to repair a partial tear of the medial meniscus in his left knee.

Mike only pitched 126 innings last year with multiple trips to the disabled list. However, he was dominant when he pitched.

If you are still drafting Clevinger in the third round, you have a high-risk tolerance.

He is currently being drafted after Blake Snell and ahead of Chris Sale and Luis Castillo.

That being said, Clevinger is worth the risk if he slips into the back end of the fourth round or later.

@F6P_Joe was able to draft Mike Clevinger 56th overall in his TGFBI draft (Team 4)!


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Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers, OF – ADP 91.34 (-9.09) – @JChan_811

I already went over Gallo in-depth in the Undervalued Outfielder article but with his ADP continuing to plummet, I feel the need to defend Gallo once again.

I thought he was undervalued at his old (FantasyPros) ADP of 79 but another drop of almost a full round is pure larceny, especially in OBP leagues.

Early Spring Training returns have been pretty standard for Gallo, two of his three hits have been for extra bases including a no-doubter in his fifth game against the Dodgers on Sunday.

As the slugger continues to regain his timing after missing 92 games last season, his ugly Spring strikeout rate (53.8 percent) should normalize to his career averages.

Nothing in Gallo’s outlook has changed for this season, as Steamer projects him to finish fourth in the league in home runs (42) with a higher OBP and wOBA than Pete Alonso.

For what it’s worth, Steamer is also projecting him to have the lowest K% of his career which would solve nearly all his problems.

Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds, 3B – ADP 86.18 (-19.06) – @JChan_811

Suarez is still working his way back from offseason surgery to remove loose cartilage in his right shoulder. The Reds’ third baseman took swings off a batting tee on Friday, the first time since his procedure that he has swung with both arms.

It was a big step in his rehab and it seems there’s a long way to go before he’s fully healthy.

“I was a little bit scared because I’ve got something that is new for me,” Suarez told MLB.com. “But it was good for the first day. My arm, my shoulder feels OK, feeling better. I just want to get my comfort back. [On Friday,] I went 75 feet. It’s getting better every day. That’s the goal.”

His rehab is progressing smoothly, but it’s a bit optimistic to believe he’ll be at full strength by opening day, even if he plays.

Steamer projects Suarez for 35 home runs and 96 RBI in 149 games, which excellent production for someone now being drafted in the eighth round of 12-team leagues.

Picks 101-200 – Risers

Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays, RP – ADP 160.31 (+68.21)

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Usually, you see a player jump up draft boards when they are the ones who change teams. However, in Anderson’s case, the Tampa Bay Rays traded Emilio Pagan to the San Diego Padres for Manuel Margot and Logan Driscoll.

Anderson was traded to the Rays last year from the Miami Marlins and over 21.1 innings pitched for Tampa, owned a 50% K-BB%! He struck out 41 batters and walked just two! He only earned one save last season and it was with the Marlins.

Anderson is not going to be the lone closer for Tampa Bay Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado sharing that role, but he should be able to keep his ERA and WHIP low with a high K/9, K%, if your league tracks those categories.

Steamer projects him to lead the team in saves with 19, an ERA of 3.27, WHIP at 1.07 and a K/9 of 12.44 over 65 innings pitched.

With an ADP around 160, he is being drafted near other relief pitchers like Jose Leclerc and Archie Bradley.

David Price, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP – ADP 171.32 (+24)

Price’s four years with the Boston Red Sox did not go as planned. He won 17 games in year one, despite a 3.99 ERA but only made 63 more starts over the last three seasons.

The first half of last year was good, but a wrist injury derailed his season, limiting him to just 24 second-half innings.

The Mookie Betts trade landed him in Los Angeles and it’s clear Fantasy owners believe a fresh start is a good thing for Price.

Even at his improved ADP, Price could return some serious value as the 67th starting pitcher selected.

Steamer projects him for 28 starts and 155 innings with an ERA (3.68) above his career average (3.31).

Mark Melancon, Atlanta Braves, RP – ADP 199.95 (+17.47)

Melancon is expected to be the Braves closer this season but Steamer currently projects him for just 19 saves.

Will Smith is projected for the other 13. He is listed below as one of the largest ADP fallers. It might be worth adding him if you miss on Melancon.

It might even be worth rostering both Braves relievers!

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins, SP – ADP 174.31 (+15.55)

Maeda was traded to the Minnesota Twins in the Mookie Betts deal.

He joins Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Homer Bailey in the rotation.

The Twins have done a great job building a lethal offense that should be able to provide plenty of run support.

Maeda pitched to a 3.87 ERA in the National League West across four seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers and now enters the American League.

Fantasy owners appear to disagree with Steamer, which projects him for a career-worst 4.64 ERA and 9.13 K/9.

Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics, SP – ADP 119.70 (+12.2) – @JChan_811

As Opening Day creeps closer, Luzardo’s ADP will continue to soar. The first spike happened when the A’s announced that the 22-year old would begin the year in the starting rotation.

The second spike occurred when manager Bob Melvin announced Luzardo would not have a strict innings limit placed on him this season.

This third spike is happening because the third-round pick has looked excellent in his two Cactus League outings. Luzardo has allowed just two baserunners and struck out five over five scoreless innings.

Steamer has him projected to reach 149 innings this season which would be excellent in his first full year as a starter. His price isn’t outrageous at the moment, as he’s being drafted around other young pitchers with question marks like Zac Gallen and Frankie Montas. However, any more hype-driven ADP spikes could push the young hurler into the “overvalued” tier.

Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians, OF – ADP 145 (+12)

Steamer currently projects Reyes to lead the Indians in home runs with 36. As long as your league does not penalize players that strikeout in 28% of their at-bats, the Franimal is your friend as his current ADP.

Others Rising

  • Keone Kela, Pittsburgh Pirates, RP – +11.81
  • Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins, OF – +11.7
  • Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics, SP – +10.52
  • Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP/RP – +10.05

Picks 101-200 – Fallers

Yasiel Puig, Free Agent, OF – ADP 153.69 (-20.07)

I understand why a team would be hesitant to sign a player like Puig but it is hard to deny his talent.

He is going to provide some nice value late in drafts if he remains unsigned because when he eventually does he is almost a lock for 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

Will Smith, Atlanta Braves, RP – ADP 148.80 (-21.66)

See Melancon above

Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros, 1B/3B – ADP 150.35 (-22.7)

Gurriel got hot last year and hit 12 home runs in June, leading to a career-high 31 home runs. He had 31 total homers in the previous two seasons.

Other than that he has been known as more of a rotational fantasy player.


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Yuli Gurriel Rolling wOBA FanGraphs
Others Falling


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About Keith Lott

We have one goal, to help you win your league. It does not matter if you are a fantasy rookie or a veteran. Everyone has questions, and we have opinions. Lot(t)s of them!

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