This is your 2020 Fantasy Football ADP Risers-Fallers watch post for June-July. We're another month closer to a new season and there's still no movement in the top three picks. Which goes as follows: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott.
After those three, most people are grabbing Alvin Kamara then Michael Thomas from the Saints power-packed offense. Then Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry at the six and seven - according to their average draft position (ADP).
Using NFBC ADP data, we will keep you up to date on the players that are climbing up draft boards and falling out of favor with fantasy owners.
In this article, I'm looking at ADP for 12-team leagues in July compared to June. I'm going to highlight three players from each main fantasy position that are rising and falling down people draft boards.
2020 Fantasy Football ADP Risers-Fallers
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Cam Newton, New England Patriots - ADP 145.62 (-85.18)
Cam Newton’s first official photo in his Patriots jersey. pic.twitter.com/tn5SVJIl1M
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 4, 2020
In the second week of the 2019 season, Cam Newton suffered a LisFranc fracture ending his year. Everyone who kept saying the New England Patriots were going to sign him, you have bragging rights. On the 8th of July, they signed him to a one-year deal worth up to 7.5 million with incentives.
The media always knocks him for his durability and not being able to stay healthy but if you don't count last year. Newton has played 16 games in five out of eight seasons. Even in those three seasons where he didn't play all 16 games he still played in at least 14 games. He sounds pretty durable to me.
Bill Belichick has made a lot of players buy into his winning culture before, and I see no reason why he can't convince Newton as well. He doesn't have Christian McCaffrey anymore to check it down too so that will be an adjustment. But Julian Edelman and James White aren't bad options either. I fully expect him to climb even higher up draft boards when it comes to the end of August.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans - ADP 140.52 (+11.42)
Last year Ryan Tannehill had his best year as a starting quarterback in his ninth season in the NFL. In only 11 games as the starter for the Titans, he managed 22 touchdowns with 2,742 passing yards. The efficiency was through the roof for him last year as he posted a 70.3 completion percentage and a 117.5 Rating as well.
I'm not shocked he's fallen 11 spots since June, only because Tannehill is due for some regression. He had a 7.7% touchdown percentage which was second in the league last year behind the MVP Lamar Jackson. With Derrick Henry being the focal point of the offense it's going to be hard to repeat that.
He only attempted 286 pass attempts last year and I don't expect that to go up much more than that. It's hit or miss picking the weeks he's going to let it fly. If you can deal with those weeks you can snag him in the middle rounds, but if there's another option in a higher volume passing offense. You might want to go a different route.
Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts - ADP 172.18 (+15.58)
Let's be honest, Philip Rivers is near the end of his career but now has the best offensive line he's ever had. The Indianapolis Colts have a top tier offensive line that can help Rivers extend his career maybe a year or two. He's not the ideal starting quarterback you would want for your fantasy team but could some value.
He managed 23 touchdowns last year for the Los Angeles Chargers but also threw 20 interceptions. On a positive note, he threw for 4,615 yards which is always good for fantasy stats. The problem I have with him is that the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the NFL Draft. The team is trying to go with a more run-heavy offense scheme.
There are better options out there in your draft at quarterback you could choose. Most of those options you might have to reach to get, but if you don't feel like reaching Philip Rivers will be there later in drafts. For every one that uses the "draft a QB last" strategy, he would make a solid candidate for a late-round pick.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots - ADP 170.93 (-15.26)
With Sony Michel being put on the PUP list to begin the year, Damien Harris has a chance to make a name for himself. He only got four attempts for 12 yards in week seven against the New York Jets. But now that Michel is sidelined, Harris has the opportunity to take his goal-line carries. Granted this is only his second year in the league, Harris has the potential to be a bruiser.
There will be weeks where he might get overshadowed by James White and Rex Burkhead because of Belichick's use of multiple backs. But Harris has something both those guys don't have, size. At 5-11, 213lbs he is a force to be reckoned with. If James White or Rex Burkhead decide to opt-out of the upcoming season then Harris's stock will continue to rise and rise.
Raheem Mostert, San Fransisco 49ers - ADP 54.73 (+9.56)
With news of Raheem Mostert requesting a trade, it's not surprising to see him fall nine and a half spots. Now with the news of him finalizing a new deal with the San Fransisco 49ers, I expect him to stop falling. He wasn't too much of a factor in the regular season for the team only getting 772 rushing yards with 10 total touchdowns. With those stats, he landed at RB24 for the year
Where Mostert shined was the playoffs where he rushed for 336 yards and 5 touchdowns in just three games. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry and proved to the team he can handle a full workload. In Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme there are always multiple backs being used, but Mostert has the chance to be the lead guy. If Tevin Coleman and Jerrick Mckinnon continue to be injury-prone then Mostert will be the guy to own.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ADP 72.12 (-7.34)
Last year was Ronald Jones II second year in the league and most people expected it to be his breakout year. Unfortunately, he only finished as RB25 with 724 rushing yards and six touchdowns. That due to the fact the Buccaneers were playing catch up most games and him getting benched a few times. Now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay the expectations are even higher for Jones.
With Ke'Shawn Vaughn added to the NFL's new Reserve/COVID-19 list he's going to have to pass multiple tests to come back. If he can't do that Ronald Jones will continue to shoot up draft boards. With Brady running the show I can see Jones being the benefactor of more Red-Zone touches. Brady is never afraid to audible to a run inside the 10-yard line if it gets an easy touchdown.
And now, LeSean McCoy is in the mix.
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles - ADP 215.54 (+22.69)
Now that Alshon Jeffery was placed on the PUP list to start the year he is going to miss at least six games to start the year. The last time Jeffrey managed to play 16 games was 2017 since then he's missed nine games in two years. He's dropped 22 and a half spots since June and will probably continue to drop.
If you feel confident during your draft with the receivers you selected early then Jeffrey could make a great stash on your bench when he returns. He's going in the 18th round of 12-team drafts which is great value if you can be patient with him. If you're not confident in Jeffrey's ability to be 100% you're better going with Jalen Reagor, Desean Jackson, or Greg Ward.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots - ADP 81.4 (-8.19)
Now that the New England Patriots have a quarterback in Cam Newton, Julian Edelman has gone up to eight spots. He is coming off a 100 reception and 1,117 receiving yards with six touchdowns. That put him at WR8 on the year and now that Newton is passing the ball it's possible to repeat that.
I think people are starting to see that as he is trending up draft boards from June. I've seen pictures of Edelman already putting in the work with Newton on his Instagram. They're not wasting any time trying to building chemistry in the regular season. Edelman is probably the best receiver Cam has ever had and will no doubt be his number one option in critical situations.
Deebo Samuel, San Fransisco 49ers - ADP 93.27 (+18.39)
Deebo Samuel showed flashes of a being WR1 in some games last year for the 49ers despite being behind Emmanuel Sanders. He finished the year at WR32 with 802 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 57 receptions. He saw 81 targets last year which were only 16 targets behind Sanders who had 97. Kyle Shanahan might have found his guy in Samuel to replace Emmanuel Sanders's role.
After being put on the NFL's active/non-football injury list it's no surprise he's fallen 18 spots. He was believed to be facing a recovery time of 10-12 weeks at first. John Lynch has mentioned he doesn't want to put an exact timeline on it, so it's hard to say when he will be back. It's hard to see rookie Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne overtaking Deebo's WR1 role when he comes back healthy.
He's still going a little early for a guy with no timeline on returning so stay away from him in the 7th and 8th round. But if he falls into the 10th round or later and you already have your starting receivers he might be worth stashing on your bench. Don't be a fool and reach for him if you don't already have your starting receivers.
Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons - ADP 94.68 (-7.48)
"I was blown away at first. (Hurst) is cut from a different cloth."
— Fantasy Football Today (@FFToday) July 29, 2020
With Austin Hooper leaving in Free-Agency that vacates 97 targets in the Falcons offense that Hayden Hurst can take advantage of. The Falcons sent a 2nd and 5th round draft pick to the Ravens just to get Hurst. Those picks could have been valuable to the team elsewhere, but the team felt it was necessary to get him.
If they plan to use him the same way they used Hooper last year he has the potential to be a top-six tight end. Hurst is a former first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft so he has the skillset to outperform expectations now that he's the number one guy. With Atlanta's defense not being what it once was he should have the volume of a pass-heavy offense. With players still opting out of the upcoming season, he could continue to rise.
- Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts - ADP 283.64 (-11.76)
- Jason Witten, Las Vegas Raiders - ADP 278.99 (-13.80)
Visit the F6P Fantasy Football page for more advice to get you prepared for the 2020 season.