2020 Fantasy Football Busts

2020 Fantasy Football Overrated Players

on

Identifying underrated players and avoiding overrated players is the new key to Fantasy Football. In competitive leagues, there are just not “sleepers” anymore. It’s all about maximizing the value you get with your draft or waiver capital.

Just as important, you need to avoid wasting your draft capital on overrated players. Wasting a high pick on drafting one of these overrated players at their production ceiling can severely cripple your Fantasy Football team’s upside.

While “drafting guys with upside” is the new trend that Fantasy Football analysts are using, you should never draft the player as if their upside is a given. What is most likely to happen should be their draft position.

For example, Lamar Jackson is being drafted as if he will replicate his season last year. I’ve spoken at length about the regression coming his way. So you are over-drafting him making him the lead off of the over-rated players.

So here is an entire team of overrated players for the 2020 Fantasy Football season. The data used below is for PPR leagues and the ADP data is per Fantasy Pros as of August 10th.

2020 Fantasy Football Overrated Players

Complete a free five-minute mock draft against industry experts and custom analysis for your team with the FantasyPros Draft Wizard.

Quarterback

Embed from Getty Images

Lamar Jackson, BAL – ADP: 15.0, QB1

Patrick Mahomes is creeping up on Jackson, but you can read all of my thoughts regarding Lamar being over-hyped here, here, and here.

Running Backs

Embed from Getty Images

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC – ADP: 11.1, RB7

I have been skeptical of CEH since the draft when the majority of Fantasy Analysts lost their collective minds over him. Then Damien Williams opted out so CEH must have a clear role, right?

While I am not as down on him as before obviously, this is getting ridiculous. CEH has risen to the middle of the first round in most drafts I have been involved with. People think that a rookie with no preseason games or offseason mini-camps will come in and dominate the league.

People also forget that Darrel Williams has been in the offense for three years and got 56 touches in just 12 games last season. There’s also Darwin Thompson who was a late-round sleeper de jour last season.

Then there’s DeAndre Washington, Pat Mahomes’ college teammate that the team went out and signed. In games which Washington got at least seven carries last season, he averaged over 111 scrimmage yards, more than five catches, and 20.5 Fantasy Points per game.

Look, CEH could end up as a Top-5 running back. He could also not even crack the RB3 territory. His range of outcomes is just too wide to draft him this early. The best way to put it: if you take CEH in Round One he is not going to win you the league outright, but he can cost you a chance at contending.

James Conner, PIT – ADP: 39.3, RB20

Conner is another guy that I have made my thoughts known about. He has fooled people into thinking he is a workhorse running back based off of a four-game stretch in 2018 against terrible defenses. He has rushed for more than 65 yards just one time in his last fifteen games.

Conner also can’t stay on the field. The Steelers have used recent draft picks on three other running backs, including Anthony McFarland Jr. this past draft. This all adds up to a committee backfield.

But if you want him, you have to draft Conner with the likes of Le’Veon Bell and David Montgomery, players with much more defined roles.

Wide Receivers

Embed from Getty Images

Mike Evans, TB – ADP: 23.8, WR8

Evans has more than 1,000 yards receiving in all six of his NFL seasons. The quarterback for the majority of his time in the league has been Jameis Winston. Winston sports a career intended air yards per attempt of more than ten yards (so he throws the ball an average of at least 10 yards downfield per attempt). Evans’ intended yards per target is more than 15 yards.

Tom Brady is Evans’ new quarterback. Brady’s intended air yards per attempt last season was 7.6. That number is on the steady decline.  If you do not see the problem here then you should take your Brady-homer glasses off.


A.J. Brown, TEN – ADP: 39.2, WR15

A.J. Brown touched the ball 55 times in 2019. He averaged almost four Fantasy Points per touch. For comparison’s sake, Michael Thomas had one of the best wide receiver seasons in the history of football. Thomas averaged 2.49 Fantasy Points per touch.

Brown averaged almost 60% more Fantasy Points per touch than Michael Thomas. Do you really think that efficiency can be replicated? Regression is coming in a big way for Brown.

To make matters worse, he plays for a team that threw the ball the second-least in the league last year. Volume is not his friend. He would need tremendous touchdown luck to live up to this ADP.

Courtland Sutton, DEN – ADP: 45.4, WR18

Sutton played all 16 games last season and finished as WR19. So by drafting him here you are saying he is going to take a step forward. What’s the logic behind him stepping forward? A full season with Drew Lock?

In the five games that Lock started, Sutton did not have more than five catches or get to 80 yards receiving in any game. He did not score in the last four games. So it’s not like Lock was locked on to him (I had to put a dad joke in since my new daughter’s name is Sutton).

More importantly, the Broncos spent BOTH of their two first picks on wide receivers. Denver took Jerry Jeudy in the first round, who many saw as the best receiver in the draft. They then took K.J. Hamler in Round Two. So a quarterback in his first full season starting with two receivers taken in the Top 46 of the NFL Draft and we think Sutton will produce more?

I beg to differ. I think he has a very low floor along with a capped ceiling of about where he is being drafted.

Tight End

Embed from Getty Images

Rob Gronkowski, TB – ADP: 75.5, TE7

I mean, really? We are thinking that the most injury-prone tight end not named Jordan Reed will sit a year out then come back at full strength for a full season?

Is the ceiling there? Maybe. I don’t see any world in which he can get into the Top 4 at the position in PPR. So that means at TE7 you are drafting him pretty darn close to his ceiling.

The floor though is unassailable. There is a legit chance that he doesn’t play more than a handful of games. Even if he plays, you are getting him two years older after a year of partying with a quarterback that is now 43 years old. Give me the high-upside tight ends available later.

Bench

A few other over-rated players that at least deserved to be mentioned.
Embed from Getty Images

Josh Allen, BUF – ADP: 68.6, QB7

The only way I think he finishes higher than this is injury. However, I can see him dropping to the mid-QB2 territory.

Tom Brady, TB – ADP: 96.5, QB12

I mean it’s hard to hate on a Round Nine or Ten pick so I don’t dislike it too bad. But as you have seen, I am down on the Tampa passing offense.

Jonathan Taylor, IND – ADP: 38.4, RB19

D’Andre Swift, DET – ADP: 62.2, RB23

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB – ADP: 92.1, RB33

I’ve been down on all of the rookie backs this year with the current situation. These three enter backfields with a lot of competition. I’m sure one will break out but are you really going to waste three picks to find one?

Terry McLaurin, WAS – ADP: 62.2, WR26

It is just hard to spend a meaningful pick on that awful offense.

Marquise Brown, BAL – ADP: 70.1, WR 29

Brown is too big-play dependent and can completely disappear on the league’s most pass-averse offense.


Use Promo Code 'SIXPACK'  


Evan Engram, NYG – ADP: 72.1, TE6

I just don’t like his splits when the entire offense is healthy.


Visit the F6P Fantasy Football page for more advice, including all 32 Fantasy Football Team Previews to get you prepared for the 2020 season

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

Recommended for you

1 Comment

  1. Pingback: 2020 Fantasy Football Overrated Players - Fantasy Six Pack - FFB HUB

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.