Welcome Fantasy nerds, to the Fantasy Six Pack 2020 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft List.
This list will consist of players who I won't be drafting this Fantasy Football season for a multitude of reasons.
Whether it’s because their ADP is too high, their situation might have gotten worse, or they have just declined as a player.
2020 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft List
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Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (ECR QB6)
Don’t get me wrong, I love the talent Watson possesses, but his ADP is just too high. Right now he is going as the 59th player off the board in drafts according to FantasyPros. For me, that is way too early for a guy who lost his favorite weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, who the team shockingly traded this offseason.
The team did add wide receivers Brandin Cooks, and Randall Cobb, and aging running back David Johnson. But to me, it’s not worth drafting a Quarterback in the first six rounds unless you’re getting Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, or Wilson. I just don’t see Watson as a difference-maker in Fantasy this season. I’m also not willing to miss out on a possible WR2 or an RB2 to draft him.
Currently, some players going behind Watson in drafts, Jarvis Landry, Terry McLaurin, DeVante Parker, Russell Wilson and David Montgomery.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (ECR QB10)
Last season the injury bug bit Brees that caused him to miss five games with a thumb injury. He finished as QB2o and disappointed most of his Fantasy owners. I believe this season will be no different. The Saints seemed to try and transform their offense to be more of a run-first team, Last season they ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts.
If you draft Brees this season you will be in a situation like no other in the league. With the Emergence of Taysom Hill in the offense, Brees only played 89% of the snaps during the games he played according to PlayerProfiler.com, which ranked 40th amongst quarterbacks. Sometimes being replaced by Hill in the red zone, where he could vulture touchdowns from Brees, by throwing or running.
I will for sure be staying away from Brees this Season, I don’t believe he will finish as a QB1. He is currently being drafted as the 9th quarterback off the board according to FantasyPros.
Some other quarterbacks being drafted behind Brees who I‘d take over him include - Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Daniel Jones.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (ECR QB13)
33 QBs have thrown at least 500 passes since the start of 2018. Aaron Rodgers ranks:
26th in COMP%
21st in TD%
20th in Y/A
14th in Passer Rating
13th in ANY/A
11th in AY/A
1st in INT%Maybe he's just average now?
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) July 3, 2020
Last season everything went right for the Packers on the field, going 13-3 in the regular season. They wound up making it to the conference championship before losing to the 49ers. If you just glance at Rodgers stats they look pretty good, he threw for over 4,000 yards, 26 touchdowns to only four interceptions.
But the deeper you dig into the stats the scarier they get. Just from the eye test last year you could just tell that Rodgers wasn’t the Rodgers of old. His true completion percentage was 68.7% which was 17th in the NFL. His clean pocket completion percentage was 72.0% which was 21st in the NFL. Also, Rodgers pressured completion percentage was 32.2% Which was 25th in the NFL. Those are pretty alarming stats for a borderline QB1 where he’s being drafted.
Everything we’ve seen from the Matt LaFleur led Packers, indicates that he wants to take the ball out of Rodgers hands, and lean on his run game and defense. Which is obviously bad news for Rodgers owners in Fantasy. However, his ADP is still 84th, so people seem to still believe in him as a borderline QB1. I, however, am not one of those people, he’s not someone I’m targeting in drafts
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (ECR QB16)
Big Ben is coming off a season where he only appeared in two games due to an elbow injury. That injured wound up him needing Tommy John surgery. The last full season we saw of Ben was in 2018 when he had a tremendous season. He threw for 5,129 yards, which led the NFL. He also Threw 34 touchdowns which was 5th in the NFL.
Unfortunately, the last time we saw him do that he also had arguably the best Wide Receiver in football on his team, Antonio Brown. Things have changed a lot in two years, JuJu Smith-Schuster is leading the young Wide Receiver corps these days, and their defense is vastly improved from two years ago. So I expect Ben’s pass attempts and yards to go down quite a bit.
Ben does have a juicy matchup against the New York Giants. But it is on the road, and we all know that Ben’s Home/Road splits have been pretty bad at times. A 38-year-old quarterback coming off of Tommy John surgery is not someone that I want to invest a draft pick in. I would rather use that pick on a guy like Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, or Joe Burrow, who are all being drafted behind Ben.
Visit the F6P Fantasy Football page for more advice, including all 32 Fantasy Football Team Previews to get you prepared for the 2020 season.
1 comment
Another brilliant article. Even though they have improved the recovery time with Tommy John surgery technique improvement, athletes cannot even toss a ball into the air until at LEAST the 4 month mark (usually 5 months). They can wind up with their throw at 6 months & generally can return around the 7 month mark. The success rate on the surgeries is between 80 & 90 percent, according to the peer-reviewed evidence. Despite these number marks, you generally don’t see a player come back until 1 year or 18 months. Also, Big Ben doesn’t have a great wide receiver anymore. His yards were great a couple seasons ago but what concerns me the most about this injury is that we rarely see it in football. Not all that uncommon in baseball but definitely more concerning than what we see at face value given that it’s NFL not MLB.