Fantasy Football

2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Sit: Part One

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Welcome back for a look at my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Sit! Part One! Yes, it’s so massive I need to break it up into two separate pieces! Between the two articles, we are going to cover EVERY single Week 13 matchup! Every game, every notable player, and over 120 players accounted for when all is said and done!

Check here for the 2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Site: Part Two

If you haven’t yet be sure to check out my Week 13 IDP Waiver Wire as well as my Week 13 IDP Rankings!

Let’s get right into it!

2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Sit: Part One

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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints

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What’s positive about this matchup for the Saints defenders is that the Falcons are third in the league in terms of plays per game on the season. However, the Saints defense averages the second least amount of plays per game. In their last meeting, the Saints held Atlanta to only 45 offensive snaps, which is 24 less than their per game average (69, nice).

DBs are an easy sit in this matchup. The Falcons push the ball downfield, sure, but if they only run 45 plays it’s likely there just won’t be enough opportunity to go around for these DBs who need volume to perform.

You’re not sitting Davis unless you have stellar options besides him. However, you likely have better options than Alexander.

The DLs draw the best matchup on the defense by far. The Falcons pass more often than not, are top 10 in sacks allowed on the season, and Matt Ryan has a top 10 time to pass rate. Coupled with the fact that they’ll likely be playing from behind, Jordan and Hendrickson should be able to tee off on Matt Ryan all day.

Atlanta Falcons

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The Saints offer a tough and somewhat unpredictable matchup with Taysom Hill in at QB. They lend a decent matchup to DBs with their high run to pass rate, a decent amount of plays per game, and higher yards per attempt. Yet Neal has been pretty inconsistent this season, and I’m not wild about him in this matchup.

Oluokon has taken over as the LB to roster out of Atlanta, much like DeVondre Campbell last year, making Deion Jones into more name-value at this point than an elite LB like we wanted him to be.

Fowler has been one of the season’s greatest IDP disappointments. After a revival in Los Angeles, he’s fallen back to earth. Without anyone else to create pressure, Grady Jarrett has been disappointing this year as well. The Saints just don’t give up much for sacks, which is partly due to the fact they offer very little opportunity to do so. Low pass to run rate, lower time to throw, and they’ve kept sacks off the board, for the most part, this season.

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns

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Tennessee is around the middle of the pack when it comes to plays run per game which is meh. What is good news is that they run the ball a lot, and have high yards per attempt. This all bodes really well for the Strong Safety position. With Ronnie Harrison out this falls to Karl Joseph.

Despite how often Tennessee runs the ball it doesn’t help the LB position that much. Goodson is worth a flex but I’d temper expectations.

Tennessee is one of the toughest matchups against the DL position. I’m not sitting Garrett. Can’t do it, won’t do it. However, it’s likely Vernon’s esteemed run of relevance is likely over.

Tennessee Titans

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A plus to both of these defenses is that they each average a high number of defensive plays per game. Cleveland has the highest run-to-pass rate in the league. That alone yields a great matchup for DBs/LBs.

That means Byard, Vaccaro, and Evans are easy starts for me. However because Cleveland runs so much and with great efficiency, they offer fewer opportunities for sacks or tackles for loss which makes the DL position tough to trust against this offensive front.

Landry draws flex consideration since he’s been used as an off-ball linebacker as well as a down pass rusher since the Titans’ loss of Jayon Brown for the remainder of the season.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions

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The Bears run a surprising amount of plays and have the highest pass to run rate in the league. On top of that, they’ve allowed the 11th most sacks on the season. So as you could probably guess, they’re a pretty good matchup for the DL position.

Add in that Detroit averages the eighth-most defensive plays per game. This will leave a ton of opportunity for Okwara to make some noise. However, Harmon and Collins aren’t as fortunate in their matchups. Low run to pass rate makes it tough on LBs and DBs to make plays.

Chicago Bears

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The best part about this matchup for the Bears is that their defense averages near the top in defensive plays per game. This opens up some additional opportunity to allow for production despite a poor offensive matchup.

Detroit doesn’t run a ton of plays, but they throw a ton. Coupled with that, they’ve allowed the sixth-most sacks in the league. This all adds up to a big day for Khalil Mack. He’s been somewhat of a disappointment this season but in his defense (pun? Maybe? I’ll take it), most teams are running schemes to take him out of the game.

You’re not sitting Smith, but it’s possible you have another option besides Trevathan. Detroit falls in the middle of most statistics of what I look for in LB matchups. However, they do come in 26th when it comes to run to pass rate, which is my second favorite statistic to look at for LBs. Falling only behind plays per game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

First off, gross.

Cincinnati Bengals

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A big part of the matchup here is that Miami runs the fourth-fewest plays per game in the league. Which offers little opportunity for defenders to stack up production. Bates gets the start for me because he’s a stud.

This linebacker group is full of bad players and Bynes just happens to be the starter at the moment. Hubbard had a solid game last week but Miami schemes their offense to get rid of the ball quickly and give little time to DLs to get to the QB or make plays.

Miami Dolphins

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If Joe Burrow was still the starter most of these would all be starts. However with Brandon Allen at the helm, it’s hard to believe there will be many opportunities for this Dolphins defense.

I do really like Ogbah’s matchup this week. Cincinnati offers one of the better matchups to the DL position, and I expect Ogbah to eat Brandon Allen alive this weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars

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Minnesota is an odd offense. They run the third-fewest plays in the NFL, have the fifth-highest run to pass rate, and the SECOND highest yards per attempt (yeah, Kirk Cousins has the second-highest yards per attempt in the league. Let that soak in). This all bodes really well for the DB position.

Where it’s not great that they run so few plays, Jacksonville allows the 13th most plays per game so there may be some middle ground to be had. They run a lot which helps the LB, but their high yards per attempt actually hurts the LB position’s matchup score for me.

Minnesota offers a tough matchup to the DL, and the DLs available here aren’t impactful enough to be reliable in your lineups.

Minnesota Vikings

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Jacksonville runs the seventh least plays in the league and throws the ball the second-most with a low yard per attempt. This doesn’t favor the DBs in this game. I will note that Minnesota runs the seventh-most defensive plays per game which could help bring on some extra opportunity for these DBs.

The linebackers matchup is okay, but these guys have just been so solid in lineups that I can’t sit either unless I have an elite option to replace them with.

Odenigbo draws the best matchup of the bunch against a front that has allowed the eighth-most sacks per game. This team also throws a lot, as I mentioned before. I’d give it a solid chance Odenigbo comes away with at least one sack on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

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This is an interesting game. Throughout most of the season, Indianapolis has been one of the more efficient defenses and ran the fifth-fewest defensive plays per game. However, they’ve been bit by the injury bug as of late. With several players out last week they ran 72 defensive plays against the Titans.

This is a number they had only matched twice this season. In Weeks 5 and 6 they ran 73 defensive snaps, and in each week they were without star LB Darius Leonard. There’s some potential in this divisional game that could lead to similar results. The counterpoint to that is that Houston is averaging the least plays per game in the NFL.

That said, it’s likely we land somewhere in the middle of both extremes. I’ll also mention the Houston Offense isn’t as star-studded as the Titans. Buckner likely won’t play due to being placed on the COVID-IR. Justin Houston is a desperation flex play.

Houston Texans

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What’s been highly beneficial to this Texans defense is that they run the second-most defensive snaps per game on average. This leaves a bevy of opportunity to the IDP positions, and if the matchup lines up well that’s a huge bonus.

The stars align for Justin Reid this week. Indianapolis is top 12 or better in every statistical category I look at to determine great matchups. These are plays per game, run to pass ratio and yards per attempt. Coupled with the high defensive snaps the Texans run, this is a juicy matchup for Reid.

Indianapolis also poses a great matchup for the LB position for many of the reasons I mentioned above. The only knock on the matchup is the average depth per pass attempt. However, this is why the matchup favors the DB so heavily.

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets

Las Vegas Raiders

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This may come as a surprise to you, but the New York Jets don’t run a lot of plays. They are good for second-fewest in the league. This really shoots a lot of defensive potential in the foot right out of the gate. This makes matchups crucial and offers less wiggle room for production.

The Jets (Adam Gase’s) ineptitude to run an offense really makes me want to sit everyone on the Raiders this week. If you can, I would. You’re hoping for turnovers, which isn’t production I want to rely on.

New York Jets

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The Jets defense is a little more appealing for IDP in this matchup. The Jets run the fifth-most defensive plays on a per-game average across the league. This offers a lot of opportunities for great matchups to show up in stat columns.

Ashtyn Davis draws the IDP matchup of the game with Las Vegas ranking 12 or better in two of the main categories I focus on for finding good matchups. While Las Vegas doesn’t run a ton of plays, New York runs a ton of defensive plays as I mentioned.

It gets a little dicier with the LBs. The yards per attempt is somewhat concerning, but these guys have been playing too well to not at least be worth a flex play if you need it.

 


Williams has been pretty bad over the last half of the season. Between injuries, tough matchups, and underperforming; he hasn’t lived up to expectations. He finds himself in a tough matchup again, and I don’t expect him to do much for you statistically this week.

More 2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Sit Tomorrow!

Thanks so much for checking out my content! I hope you enjoyed my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Sit: Part One! Any Starts that surprised you? Any Sits? What did you think of Part One? Let me know on Twitter! The handle is @Bbab_FFB, the name is Bob Van The IDP Man! My DMs are always open for anything Fantasy Football!

About Bob Van Duser

Here to shed some light on the IDP side of Fantasy Football. With years of experience I intend to expand the horizons of players and show them how exciting IDP can be in their leagues, as well as providing a reputable source to those who play in IDP leagues already but may want to see a differing opinion or may be looking for further details and research

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  1. Pingback: 2020 Fantasy Football Week 13 IDP Start-Sit: Part Two - Fantasy Six Pack

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