2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit: Part One

by Bob Van Duser
2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit

Welcome back for a look at my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit: Part One! Get ready for Week 1 of your playoffs here!

You've made it to the best IDP Start-Sit around, because in this IDP Start-Sit we are attacking EVERY SINGLE matchup of the weekend! All together I'll end up covering over 100 players! The good, the bad, and the upside of each notable IDP player from every game!

If you haven't yet, be sure to dive in to my IDP Waiver Wire, as well as my IDP Rankings for Week 14! Then also stay tuned for Part Two of my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit that will drop Friday morning!

2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit

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New England Patriots Vs Los Angeles Rams

New England Patriots

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  • Adrian Phillips, DB; Start
  • Kyle Dugger, DB: Flex
  • Ja' Whaun Bentley(Q), LB: Flex
  • Chase Winovich, DL: Sit

Los Angeles plays really well to the DB and LB positions with their above-average run to pass rate, as well as their above-average yards per pass attempt. Coupled with those statistics they rank number two in terms of plays per game.

What throws a bit of a wrench into that whole thing is the Patriots run the second-fewest defensive plays per game on average.

I'm hesitant with Bentley and Dugger since thus far they've proven that they're pretty volume dependent. However, Phillips has proven he can be productive with less work. The Rams are one of the worst matchups for the DL. Between them having the ninth highest run to pass rate and the sixth least sacks per game, it just doesn't bode well for the DL position.

Los Angeles Rams

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  • John Johnson, DB: Start
  • Jordan Fuller, DB: Weak Flex
  • Troy Reeder, LB: Start
  • Leonard Floyd, DL/LB: Sit
  • Aaron Donald, DL: Start

New England plays well to the DB/LB positions with the highest run to pass rate in the league. However, the floor for this game is a little shaky. The reason being is that New England runs the 13th fewest offensive plays per game while the Rams average the ninth fewest plays per game on defense.

The DL matchup is actually pretty tough for Donald with New England running the ball at such a high rate. But what I've learned is that you always start your studs in primetime because when the lights come on, the stars come out!

Tennessee Titans Vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans

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  • Kevin Byard, DB: Sit
  • Kenny Vaccaro, DB: Sit
  • Malcolm Butler, DB: Sit
  • Rashaan Evans, LB: Flex
  • Harold Landry, LB/DL: Start
  • Jeffery Simmons, DL: Start

The biggest downside to this matchup is Jacksonville's average number of plays per game. Coming in at 10th least, they offer a tough floor to work with when it comes to opportunity for IDPs.

However, the upside of this matchup is that Tennessee averages the third-most defensive plays per game. Jacksonville has the third-highest pass to run rate in the NFL, thanks to mostly playing from behind. Mix that with them being 10th in sacks allowed per game, and that makes for a nice matchup for the DE and outside LB.

Jacksonville Jaguars

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  • Josh Jones, DB: Start
  • Joe Schobert, LB: Start
  • Myles Jack, LB: Start
  • JAX DLs: Sit

The Tennessee Titans average the 11 most plays per game, while the Jacksonville Jaguars average the fifth-most defensive plays per game. This offers an excellent floor for IDPs.

Josh Jones actually draws my DB matchup of the week. With the fourth-highest pass rate, and fifth-highest yards per pass attempt, the Titans offense favors the DB position quite a bit.

These linebackers are basically at the point of being week in week out starters. Set em and forget em. When it comes to this group of DLs no one really pops out at me besides maybe Dawuane Smoot if you're desperate. Tennessee has given up the eighth least sacks per game, and Ryan Tannehill does a pretty good job of getting the ball out quickly.

Minnesota Vikings Vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings

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  • Harrison Smith, DB: Sit
  • Anthony Harris, DB: Sit
  • Eric Kendricks (Q), LB: Start*
  • Eric Wilson, LB: Start*
  • Ifeadi Odenigbo, DL: Sit

Tampa Bay is just one of those teams that kinda sucks for IDP play. They're in the middle of the pack when it comes to plays per game, high pass to run rate, and have an offensive line that doesn't give up a lot of sacks.

I'd like to note this is a game I'm likely sitting Wilson in if Kendricks is good to go. But if Wilson is the main guy at LB for the week he's a must-start. This offensive line gives up the fifth least amount of sacks per game in the league and Brady gets the ball out quickly on top of that, leaving little opportunity to get to TB12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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  • Antoine Winfield, DB: Start
  • LaVonte David, LB: Start
  • Devin White, LB: Start
  • Jason Pierre-Paul, DL/LB: Start
  • Shaq Barrett, DL/LB: Sit

A big downside Minnesota offers is that they average the ninth least plays per game on the season. However, there is reason for optimism as over the last three games they're actually averaging in the top five most plays per game. That does include an overtime win vs Jacksonville, but even outside of that they've been improving.

Minnesota plays well to the DB position with their high run-to-pass rate, and the second-highest yards per pass attempt.

While this isn't a great matchup for these LBs, you can't sit them unless you have elite options to back them up. The same goes for Jason Pierre-Paul. Minnesota has a low pass rate and are middle of the row in sacks allowed per game. But JPP has been on a tear this season, and he's a tough guy to sit, whereas Barrett has been far more inconsistent.

Kansas City Chiefs Vs Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs

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  • Daniel Sorenson, DB: Sit
  • Tyrann Mathieu, DB: Flex
  • KC LBs: Sit
  • Chris Jones, DL: Sit
  • Frank Clark, DL: Sit

I honestly hate this defense for IDP. Jones can play well in good matchups, and Sorenson seems to come and go, but this LB situation is just the most frustrating thing.

As a big Dynasty guy I've been pounding the drum for Willie Gay to get a full-time role, but I don't see that coming this year. Hitchens and Wilson have proven to be meh at best more often than not.

Miami also averages the fifth least plays per game and are another one of those amoebic offenses that play pretty balanced while slightly favoring the run.

Miami Dolphins

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  • Eric Rowe, DB: Flex
  • Elandon Roberts (Q), LB: Sit
  • Jerome Baker, LB: Start*
  • Kyle Van Noy, LB: Flex
  • Emmanuel Ogbah, DL: Sit 🙁
  • Shaq Lawson, DL: Flex

Speaking of annoying defenses, this Miami defense is one of the worst to try to project outside of their defensive line. Their linebacker situation has been a headache to monitor, as well as their defensive back situation. But that's to be expected of a Belichick disciple.

With the amount of plays per game Kansas City averages, any defense going against them starts with a solid floor. Miami runs the 11th fewest plays per game on defense, but with Kansas City out there I expect them to see above average snaps.

If Roberts is out you can start Jerome Baker. If Roberts manages to play I'd sit them both.

It makes me sad to sit my boy Ogbah, but he'll likely match up against one of the best right tackles in the NFL in Mitchell Schwartz.

However, Shaq Lawson will draw an easier matchup on the other side. Kansas City can be susceptible to pass rush, but it's rare that Mahomes gets sacked (fourth-fewest per game), and considering how many plays they run it's disgusting how low their sack rate is.

Denver Broncos Vs Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos

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  • Justin Simmons, DB: Start
  • Kareem Jackson, DB: Sit
  • A.J. Johnson, LB: Sit
  • Josey Jewell, LB: Sit
  • Dre'Mont Jones, DL: Sit
  • Bradley Chubb, DL/LB: Flex

The Panthers run the sixth-fewest plays per game, which would offer a pretty rough floor, but the Broncos average the 10th most defensive plays per game on average. This should buffer some opportunity in what would otherwise be a pretty tough matchup.

Justin Simmons has been nothing short of an All-Star for your Fantasy teams this season, especially at the price it took to acquire him. Where he hasn't been the most consistent, when he's gone off he's gone OFF. You can't sit him.

These linebackers are a mess of inconsistency if you ask me. Jewell seems to be at his best when Fangio is firing him in on blitz packages against inexperienced QBs and bad offensive lines, while A.J. Johnson is at his best as a downhill run stopper and does okay in pass coverage. The problem is Carolina doesn't really play to either of these styles.

Jones has been hot up until last week but he's got a tough matchup this week against a meh offensive line, and Teddy Bridgewater has one of the fastest time to throw stats in the league. If they're held to a low snap count this week this d-line won't have a ton of opportunity to get after Teddy Two-Gloves.

Carolina Panthers

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  • Jeremy Chinn, DB: Start
  • Tre Boston, DB: Sit
  • Shaq Thompson (COVID-IR), LB: Sit
  • Brian Burns, DL: Start

For one of the youngest defenses in the league, they're pretty good at getting off the field. Coming in at 15th least in defensive snaps per game I'd say is pretty impressive in a new coaching regime.

Jeremy Chinn is my favorite DB in the league currently. The second I saw his tape I was sold. You can't sit him.

Shaq Thompson was recently placed on the COVID-IR but no word yet if he's tested positive or if it's a high-risk contact. Either way, I'm looking to sit him this week.

Brian Burns has really come on this season in tremendous fashion. He's played a large role in this defense's success this season. While he doesn't draw a great matchup against an improved Broncos o-line, he's a speed rusher and if he gets an extra half second to get to the QB he can make things happen. Guess who has the sixth highest time to throw rate in the NFL? Burns is a LOCK for a sack this weekend.

Houston Texans Vs Chicago Bears

Houston Texans

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  • Justin Reid, DB: Flex
  • Tyrell Adams, LB: Start
  • Zach Cunningham, LB: Flex
  • J.J. Watt, DL: Start

Chicago runs a surprising amount of plays for a team that can't score in the third quarter. This bodes well against a Houston defense that runs the fifth-most defensive plays per game in the NFL.

There should be plenty of opportunity for production on this side of the matchup. I like J.J. Watt especially to have a big game this week, even a career game. He's quieted down quite a bit the last couple years while battling injuries and people have soured on him a bit, myself included. But he's a must-start this week.

Also what's going on with this linebacker room? Cunningham playing limited snaps seems a little alarming considering they just gave him a huge extension but is this undrafted or late-round pick from nowhere better for the lead role at LB on this defense? I have to remember, the deal was made when Billie O'Stooge was the GM/Head Coach. So I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Chicago Bears

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  • Eddie Jackson, DB: Sit
  • Roquan Smith, LB: Start
  • Danny Trevathan, LB: Flex
  • Khalil Mack, DL: Start
  • Akiem Hicks, DL: Sit
  • Robert Quinn, DL: Sit

First off, how are you Bears fans doing? Y'all okay?

This is a tough matchup base figuring that the Houston Texans average the third least plays per game on the season. Luckily the Bears average the 11th most defensive plays per game so there should be a buffer of opportunity for production in this game.

Houston's sack rate is disgustingly high for where they sit on plays per game. They're giving up the ninth-most sacks per game while averaging the third least plays per game on average. Quinn just isn't the same player he used to be, and Hicks is still working his way back from injury.

Roquan has performed well this season and needs to be started. However, I'll be tempering my expectations for his IDP output.

Arizona Cardinals Vs New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals

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  • Budda Baker, DB: Start
  • Jordan Hicks, LB: Start
  • De'Vondre Campbell, LB: Start
  • Isaiah Simmons, LB: Flex
  • Markus Golden, DL: Sit*

This Start-Sit is with the assumption that Daniel Jones is out again. However, if he were to play the only change I'd make is I'd be willing to flex Markus Golden. Surprisingly the DL position bodes much better against Daniel Jones as opposed to Colt McCoy.

Baker is easy, Hicks and Campbell have great matchups, and while Simmons is still maintaining a small role he's worth flex consideration. Maybe next season they'll move on from Campbell and Simmons can take over as the big dog in Arizona.

New York Giants

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  • Jabrill Peppers, DB: Start
  • Logan Ryan, DB: Flex
  • Blake Martinez (Q), LB: Start
  • Tae Crowder, LB: Flex*
  • Leonard Williams, DL: Flex

Arizona runs a ton of plays per game coming in at fourth on the season. However they've been on a bit of an offensive skid, and they get to face a Giants defense that averages the 10th fewest plays per game. I'd be worried about the opportunity these players will have but these guys are all studs and almost need to be started.

If Blake Martinez is forced to miss Week 14 Tae Crowder is a MUST ADD AND MUST START. Sorry my caps lock got stuck. I'm not going back to change it though, the point still stands and I want y'all to know.

Leonard Williams seems to be revived in this new regime, a player that was long heralded as a bust is now showing what he's made of.

Dallas Cowboys Vs Cincinnati Bengals

Dallas Cowboys

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  • Donovan Wilson, DB: Flex
  • Jaylon Smith, LB: Start
  • Leighton Vander Esch, LB: Flex
  • Demarcus Lawrence, DL: Start
  • Aldon Smith, DL: Flex
  • Randy Gregory, DL: Sit

This was the worst game of the week until I realized IT'S AN ANDY DALTON REVENGE GAME! Just kidding, it's still gonna be tough to watch.

Cincinnati is a terrible matchup for everyone except the DL position. Which is surprising to everyone right? This could be a blood bath for the Dallas defensive front. Pray for whatever fourth string gets the start this week.

Cincinnati Bengals

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  • Jessie Bates, DB: Start
  • Vonn Bell, DB: Sit
  • Josh Bynes, LB: Sit
  • Carl Lawson, DL: Sit
  • Sam Hubbard, DL Start

Dallas has sure taken a hit since Dak went down. Duh, Bob, what a Booger McFarland thing to say. But in all seriousness their plays per game, yards per pass attempt, several statistics that play towards opportunity for IDPs trending the wrong way.

Jessie Bates and Sam Hubbard are the only startable assets on a weekly basis going forward.

Check out Part Two here!

Thanks for checking out my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit: Part One

Thanks as always for checking out my content, I hope you enjoyed Part One of my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit! What did you think of my picks? Let me know on Twitter! The handle is @Bbab_FFB, the name is Bob Van The IDP Man! My DMs are always open!
Much love,
-BV

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1 comment

2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit: Part Two - Fantasy Six Pack December 11, 2020 - 7:00 am

[…] you haven’t yet, please take a minute to check out Part One of my 2020 Fantasy Football Week 14 IDP Start-Sit! Along with that, be sure to check out my Week 14 […]

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