Fantasy Football

2020 NFL DFS DraftKings Thanksgiving Price Preview


Welcome to the 2020 NFL DFS DraftKings Thanksgiving Price Preview article! This series will highlight significant weekly swings in DraftKing’s player pricing and attempt to identify value at each skill position.

Each week we will be highlighting players who have been priced up and priced down by DraftKings. We will analyze player potential by taking a closer look at their weekly matchups, reviewing previous performances, and previewing game scripts.

Players who have seen a price increase will be evaluated using the PAY-UP or PASS system and players who have been priced down will be examined to see if they present a TRAP or a VALUE based on their drop-in price. Speaking of value, for those of you who live in the great state of Maine, make sure bet-maine becomes your online home for sports betting, horse racing, and online gambling. Now let’s take it to the house!

2020 NFL DFS DraftKings Thanksgiving Price Preview

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

Priced Up – Quarterbacks

PAY-UP – Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans – $6,500 → $7,400 + $900

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Deshaun Watson is the top quarterback play on the DraftKings Thanksgiving Day slate and he’s priced up to prove it at $7,400. The Detroit Lions let Carolina Panthers back-up quarterback, XFL star, P.J. Walker pass up and down the field on their secondary last week.

Watson is all set for a big day against a Lions team that is reeling and who has very little to be thankful for this season. I will be stacking Watson with both Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller this week in what will come to be known as the “Detroit Turkey Day Massacre.”

PASS – Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys  – $5,300 → $5,600 + $300

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Andy Dalton is back at home to face the Washington Football Team for this Thanksgiving tilt and he is priced up after his 20.32 point DraftKings’ performance last week against Minnesota. Washington is not Minnesota.

The last time Andy Dalton laced them up against the WFT he was knocked out of the game on a vicious hit to the head that sidelines him for three weeks. It was brutal. This year Washington is holding opposing quarterbacks under 18 points per game, which means that Dalton will need to through for mulitple touchdowns. Something that Washington has only allowed three times in 10 games.

Priced Down – Quarterbacks

PASS – Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – $6,000 → $5,800 – $200

Matthew Stafford is battling through a thumb injury that limited him in week 11 to a 55% completion percentage and a season-low 178 passing yards. Stafford’s worst statistical performance all season.

The implied point total for Detroit is 24.5, which given their current injury report seems like wishful thinking on Vegas’s part. If D’Andre Swift is back, the offense should flow through him, limiting Stafford’s upside and limiting my lineup exposure.

Priced Up – Running Backs

PAY-UP – Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys – $6,500 → $6,800 + $300

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Let Zeke eat! Last week Ezekiel Elliot Elliot bounced back from three sub 10 point performances with 22.4 points against the Minnesota Vikings. A healthy Zack Martin made a huge difference in Elliot’s yards per carry last week, which skyrocketed from his season average of 3.9 to 4.9 and helped him finish as RB3 on DraftKings.

The Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL in “pace of play”, running a play every 23 seconds so far this season, which is good news for Zeke and the increased green zone opportunities it creates. Look for Zeke to rush for a touchdown and finish with upwards of 75 rushing yards.

PAY-UP – Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team – $5,800 → $6,000 + $200

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Antonio Gibson has rushed for a touchdown in 4 straight games, giving him a total of eight rushing touchdowns through 10 games.  Over the last four-game, Gibson has averaged 18.8 DraftKings points.

In week 7 against the Cowboys, he rushed for 128 yards on 20 carries and scored a touchdown. Look for the Washington Football Team to lean heavy on Gibson with week, making him a must-start in your DFS lineup.

PRICED-DOWN Running Backs

VALUE – J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team – $5,200 → $5,100 – $100

J.D. MiKissic ranks 2nd in the NFL with 66 targets at the running back position. Last week the Washington Football Team led much of the way against the Cincinnati Bengals and the game script limited MiKissic’s upside.

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This week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys should be more competitive and feature more third-down opportunities for MisKissic. Look for him to cash in with 5-6 receptions and 50+ receiving yards.

PRICED-UP Wide Receivers

PAY-UP – Amari Copper, Dallas Cowboys – $5,400 → $5,700 + $300

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Amari Cooper‘s price is way too low. He has game-breaking talent and is the WR1 on a team that ranks 7th in the NFL with 276 passing yards per game. Cooper should be priced closer to $6,000.

He only needs 17.1 points to return 3x value this week. He is averaging 16 DraftKings points per game. The math checks out.

PAY-UP – CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $5,000 → $5,400 + $400

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It baffles the mind watching the good folks at DraftKings fail to correctly price CeeDee Lamb week after week. He ranks 19th in DraftKings points this season and is still priced below $6,000. I just don’t get it. But I don’t need to. All I need to do is get CeeDee Lamb into my lineup.

If last week’s Matrix-like touchdown reception wasn’t proof enough the Lamb is the real deal relevant Hollyfield, then just look at the numbers. CeeDee is on pace for 70 receptions, 1000 yards, and seven touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Play him.

PAY-UP – Keke Coutee, Houston Texans – $3,000 → $3,400 + $400

Randell Cobb is OUT for week 12, which leaves Keke Coutee as the starting slot wide receiver for the 8th ranked passing offense in the NFL. He caught a touchdown last week and made the most out of his 4 targets, scoring 9 DraftKings points. $3,400 for Coutee provides lineup flexibility and allows you to pay up at quarterback and running back.

PRICED-DOWN Wide Receivers

TRAP – Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys – $3,700 → $3,500 – $200

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Michael Gallup lost people money last week. Not me. But someone I call a close friend (@Bo_McBigTime on Twitter). Don’t fall for this trap.

Gallup lost red-zone targets to CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Shultz the last two weeks. A trend that leads me to fade him this week against the Washington Football Team.

PRICED-UP Tight Ends

PASS – T.J. Hockenson, Detriot Lions – $4,200 → $4,700 + $500

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T.J. Hockenson, or “Hockenhouse” as my wife calls him, was priced down last week to $4,200 and he still wasn’t able to provide the 3x value that you needed, finishing with only 10.8 DraftKings points.

Now DraftKings have priced him up, which means he needs to score 14 points to pay off. There are cheaper, more valuable options this week. (See Jordan Akins).

VALUE – Jordan Akins, Houston Texans – $2,500 → $2,900 + $400

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Jordan Akins led the Houston Texan’s tight ends in snaps (24) routes run, targets (6), and receptions (5). All of this led to 13.3 DraftKings points, Akins’s high scoring performance of the season. We only need Akins to score 9 points for him to return 3x the value.


TRAP – Darren Fells, Houston Texans – $2,900 → $2,700 – $200

Jordan Akins is the tight end you want to start this week for the Houston Texans. Fells was an afterthought last week, as Akins racked up six targets from Deshaun Watson, while Fells only managed two. Fells is priced down for a reason this week.

We hope the 2020 NFL DFS DraftKings Thanksgiving Price Preview helps make spending time with family just a bit sweeter!

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

About Scott Simpson & Bo McBrayer

Follow Scott Simpson and Bo McBrayer on Twitter @Nimblewnumbers and @Bo_McBigTime

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