2020 NFL DFS Week 11 DraftKings Price Preview

by Scott Simpson & Bo McBrayer
2020 NFL DFS Week 11 DraftKings Price Preview

Welcome to the 2020 NFL DFS Week 11 DraftKings Price Preview article! This is a new series that will highlight significant weekly swings in DraftKing’s player pricing and attempt to identify value at each skill position.

Each week we will be highlighting players who have been priced up and priced down by DraftKings. We will analyze player potential by taking a closer look at their weekly matchups, reviewing previous performances, and previewing game scripts.

Players who have seen a price increase will be evaluated using the PAY-UP or PASS system and players who have been priced down will be examined to see if they present a TRAP or a VALUE based on their drop-in price.

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2020 NFL DFS Week 11 DraftKings Price Preview

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

Priced Up - Quarterbacks

Pay-Up - Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - $6,200 → $6,700 + $500

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Roethlisberger faces the 30th ranked Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has given up 19 touchdown passes and an average of 23.02 points to the QB position in 2020.

Big Ben’s WRs are so hot right now, each scoring over 20 DraftKings points in Week 10, and I don't see the cooling off this week against the hapless Jags.

Pass - Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers  - $6,100 → $6,400 + $300

Bridgewater enters Week 11 as the 9th ranked QB in DraftKings scoring and has a juicy matchup with a Lions defense that just resurrected Alex Smith’s career. My biggest concern at this point is Bridgewater's health heading into Week 11.

The Panthers may choose to dominate the Lions on the ground as Washington did in Week 10 when they rushed for three touchdowns.

Until Bridgewater is given a full bill of health, he's on the shelf.

Priced Down - Quarterbacks

TRAP - Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - $7,900 → $7,000 - $900

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Aaron Rodgers takes on the Indianapolis Colts defense which ranks 1st against the QB position, giving up a meager 13.56 fantasy points per game (FPG). They have only surrendered 11 passing touchdowns through the first 10 weeks.

TRAP - DeShaun Watson, Houston Texans - $6,900 → $6,500 - $400

Watson has completed just 58 percent of his passes (39-for-67) for 377 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in two career games (both losses) against the Patriots

The Patriots rank 5th against the QB position, holding opposing QBs to under 16 FPG.

Priced Up - Running Backs

PAY-UP - Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints - $8,200 → $9,200 + $1,000

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We knew this was coming, but a $1,000 jump is a bit much DraftKings. With that being said, you play Alvin Kamara because he is averaging over 27 DraftKings points per game.

He has been and will continue to be the focal point in the Saints offense with Drew Brees sidelined, and Jameis Winston under center.

He has the safest floor of the high-priced running backs.

PAY-UP - Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders  - $6,500 → $7,100 + $600

Chucky wants to establish the run and boy has he stuck to his guns the last three weeks, running the ball a whopping 60% of the time.

Jacobs is appropriately priced up this week in a plus matchup against a Chiefs team that he scored over 22 fantasy points against in Week 5.

Kansas City's defense has played better in the last few weeks, but Jacobs is still underpriced for my money.

PAY-UP - D'Andre Swift, RB, Detriot Lions - $5,100 → $6,400 + $1,300 -

The Lions named Swift the starter and DraftKings added a 25% surcharge to his Week 11 salary...and that's fine with me. I’ll pay all day to see Swift rush and receive his way to another breakout performance.

This week he gets to go against a Panthers defense that ranks 30th against running backs and has given up 12 total touchdowns through 10 games.

PRICED-DOWN Running Backs

TRAP - Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals  - $6,300 → $5,100 - $1,200

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With Kenyan Drake back and out-touching Edmonds 17 to 11, his upside is capped. His floor is closer to the 10-12 point range, compared to the 20-25 point range he had hit previously when Drake had been sidelined.

There is just not enough volume to warrant going all-in on Edmonds in Week 11.

TRAP - Darrell Henderson, L.A. Rams - $5,900 → $5,300 - $600

I really would like to know how McVay is determining who is going to break out of the Rams backfield each week.

Last week Malcolm Brown out-snapped him 41% to 33%, with rookie Cam Akers picking up 26% of snaps.

I don’t trust the floor for Henderson and will not have any shares in Week 11.

TRAP - Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles - $6,000 → $5,600 - $400

I was just as shocked as you when Boston Scott turned his four touches into 14.4 DraftKings points.

It’s a hard pass for me given the limited touches and the unsustainable point per touch production in Week 10.

My prediction is that Scott does not break double-digits in DraftKings points, which means his discounted price is a trap.

PRICED-UP Wide Receivers

PAY-UP - DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals - $7,000 → $8,100 + 400

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When Jason Moore of the Fantasy Footballers yelled out, “YOU’RE THE GREATEST MAN ALIVE!!!” after Hopkins’ miracle catch on Sunday night, I would have paid $9,000 for him, up-front.

I’m still comfortable with paying up for Hopkins with the price hike given his massive upside since he has gone off for 25+ points in five games this season. He faces the 32nd ranked Seattle secondary that he already torched back in Week 7 for 10 receptions, 103 yards and a touchdown.

All systems go for a Nuke launch on Sunday!

PAY-UP - Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals - $5,700 → $6,100 + $400

Kirk’s price hike was a few weeks too late after he had previously posted three straight 20+ point DraftKings performances.

Kirk fell back down to earth as DeAndre Hopkins stole the targets and the show in Week 10 with his game-winning hail-mary catch.

Kirk bounces back in Week 11 against a Seahawks secondary that ranks dead last in the NFL.

All systems go for Captain Kirk!

PAY-UP - D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers - $5,100 → $5,600 + $500

D.J. Moore was criminally underpriced in Week 10, so consider this a market adjustment.

There is still real value for Moore at $5,600, with my only concern being Teddy Bridgewater’s health.

If Teddy plays, DJ play that music and insert Moore into your lineup.

PASS - DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins - $5,000 → $5,700 + $700

This price hike surprised me. Parker is coming off a 5.1 DraftKings performance where he was only able to catch 2 of his 7 targets for 31 yards.

Tua Tagovailoa is the future, but Parker will not be in any of my future lineups if he is priced like this. I would much rather roll with all other WR’s priced at $5,700 (Antonio Brown, D.J. Chark & D.J. Moore).

PRICED-DOWN Wide Receivers

TRAP - Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers - $9,000 → $8,600 - $400

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Davante has been electric this season, despite only playing in 7 of 10 games. He leads all wide receivers in scoring and is averaging 28.2 FPG.

Adams faces a Colts defense that ranks 6th against the WR position. With the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and the return of Allen Lazard from IR, I will be fading Adams in Week 11.

TRAP - Cooper Kupp, L.A. Rams - $6,900 → $6,500 - $400
Robert Woods, WR, L.A. Rams - $6,600 → $6,000 - $600

One of these WR’s is going to have 12 targets and the other might be out-targeted by Josh Reynolds.

Kupp has a more stable floor, with Woods offering more of a ceiling play.

Woods is cheap enough that I won’t completely ignore him, but Justin Jefferson has more upside in the $6,000 WR range.

VALUE - Will Fuller, Houston Texans - $6,700 → $6,200 - $500
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houson Texans - $5,600 → $5,200 - $400

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The Texans have been throwing the ball more since Bill “Bob” O’Brien was sent packing and it has been so refreshing to see Deshaun Watson throwing the ball downfield.

Bill Belichick normally is effective in taking away the opposing team’s best weapon, which in this case will probably be Will Fuller.

The $5,200 price tag is too cheap for me to pass up so I will be cashing on Cooks.

VALUE - Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals - $6,400 → $5,600 - $800

Boyd’s price stood out a clear value against a pass defense that isn’t looking as stout after Matthew Stafford and the Lions passed all over them last week.

Washington presents a pass rush challenge, but they are not the Pittsburgh Steelers.

PRICED-UP Tight Ends

PASS - Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - $3,900 → $4,700 + $800

Jonnu Smith has scored 4.9, 11.2, and 9.5 DraftKings points the last three weeks with only 10 targets in his last three games. I’m not sure his sudden mid-season price hike is warranted.

This week he faces the Ravens, who are ranked 15th against tight ends. Baltimore is coming off a poor overall performance against a New England team that ran the ball 28 times last week for 152 yards.

Last year in the Divisional Playoff matchup, Derrick Henry gashed the Ravens for 195 yards on 30 carries. This game won't be a carbon copy but look for Tennessee to feature a run-heavy attack and seek to connect on big plays with their star WR, A.J. Brown.

PAY-UP - Hunter Henry, L.A. Chargers - $4,100 → $4,600 + $500

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Hunter Henry is quietly the 9th highest scoring tight end on DraftKings in 2020 and faces a Jets defense that ranks 22nd against the TE. New York has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Henry has been targeted 24 times over the last four games and has double-digit points in 55% of games this season.


TRAP - Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders - $5,900 → $5,600 - $300

Waller has been targetted 30 times in the last four games and has scored double-digits each time he has scored a touchdown.

In the previous matchup against the Chiefs, Waller caught five receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown.

However, since that game, the Chiefs have not given up a touchdown to a tight end.

VALUE - TJ Hockenson, Detriot Lions - $5,100 → $4,200 - $900

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The Panthers rank 21st against the tight end position and have forked over five touchdowns, giving up 13.78 FPG.

If Hockenson is healthy and the toe is not an issue, I see him bouncing back in a game with a Vegas point total of 49.

VALUE - Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles - $4,200 → $3,800 - $400

Carson Wentz and the Eagles look terrible. That being said, Goedert should be in play this week against a Browns defense that is 23rd against tight ends.

Cleveland has given up five touchdowns, and over 450 receiving yards to opposing TEs.

Philadelphia has consistently targeted the tight end position, producing five top 10 performances.

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

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