Daily Fantasy Sports

2020 NFL DFS Week 15 DraftKings Price Preview

on

Welcome to the 2020 NFL DFS Week 15 DraftKings Price Preview article! This series will highlight significant weekly swings in DraftKings player pricing and attempt to identify value at each skill position.

Each week we will be highlighting players who have been priced up and priced down by DraftKings. We will analyze player potential by taking a closer look at their weekly matchups, reviewing previous performances, and previewing game scripts.

Players who have seen a price increase will be evaluated using the PAY-UP or PASS system and players who have been priced down will be examined to see if they present a TRAP or a VALUE based on their drop-in price.

2020 NFL DFS Week 15 DraftKings Price Preview

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

Priced Up – Quarterbacks

PAY-UP – Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens  – $6,900 → $7,500 + $600

Embed from Getty Images
Last week Lamar Jackson reminded us all why he was the MVP in 2019, scoring twice on the ground on once through the air while rushing for over 120 yards.

Lamar is back and this week he faces a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has given up 31 touchdowns to the quarterback position. With Jackson’s wider receiving core currently battling COVID, look for Lamar to use his feet this week, instead of his arm.

PASS – Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,400 → $5,700 + $300

Tua Tagovailoa exploded in Week 14, scoring over 30 DraftKings points for the first time in a shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs. Don’t look for a repeat performance this week against a New England Patriots team that only gives up 15.24 points to the quarterback position.

Priced Down – Quarterbacks

VALUE – Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,100 → $7,900 – $200

Embed from Getty Images
Patrick Mahomes should never be priced down. Last week was one of his worst performances of his career and he still 24.6 DraftKings points. With weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Mahomes is a value this week that I will not let slip through my fingers.

VALUE – Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – $6,400 → $5,900 – $500

Drew Brees is back and this week he faces off against a Chiefs’ defense that gives up close to 18 points to the quarterback position but was gashed last week for 31 points on the road in Miami. Brees is in a smash spot in a potential game script that should see the Saints trying to play catchup against the high-powered Chiefs.

Priced Up – Running Backs

PAY-UP – Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – $8,700 → $9,500 – $800

Embed from Getty Images
If last week taught me anything, it is that I will be playing Derrick Henry for the rest of the year! Henry rushed for over 210 yards and took two touchdowns to the house in a dominating performance against the hapless Jags.

This week Henry faces a Detroit Lions team that ranks dead last in the league against running backs, giving up over 31 points per game to backs this season. This is a recipe for another crowing for King Henry.

PAY-UP – Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – $5,800 → $7,200 + $1,400

Hyped rookie Jonathan Taylor finally paid off last week, rushing or 150 yards and scoring two touchdowns in his most dominant performance of his young career. Look for JT to keep rolling this week when he faces off against a Houston Texans defense that just gave up 28+ points to David Montgomery.

PAY-UP – David Montgomery, Chicago Bears  – $6,500 → $7,00 + $500

Paying $7,000 for David Montgomery this week sounds risky. Sure he balled out the last few weeks against the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions, but can we trust him against the Minnesota Vikings this week?

The answer is a resounding “YES” since middle linebacker Eric Kendricks will miss another start this week. Kendricks absence in the middle should open the door for Montgomery to ball on Sunday.

PRICED-DOWN Running Backs

TRAP – James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,500 → $7,100 – $400

Embed from Getty Images
Last week James Robinson saw a 67% snap rate to Dare Ogunbowale‘s 33%. Don’t look for this trend to continue this week in a matchup that should feature more volume for Robinson. The problem is that the Baltimore Ravens defense gives up under 25 points to the running back position on average each week.

Look for the Ravens to make the Jaguar offense one-dimensional, therefore limiting Robinson’s upside this week and ultimately making him someone that I am avoiding in most DFS formats.

PRICED-UP Wide Receivers

PASS – D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks – $8,200 → $8,400 + $200

What is not to absolutely love about second-year standout wide receiver D.K. Metcalf? Well, this week it is a combination of his matchup against the Washington Football Team and his $200 price hike.

Will D.K. score points against the WFT? Of course. I just think that there is better value to be had at the wide receiver position this week and I will not be paying up for studs in bad matchups.

PASS – Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons – $8,200 → $7,500 + $700

Embed from Getty Images
DraftKings makes mistakes. I think that pricing up Calvin Ridley is a mistake this week. Sure he is Matt Ryan‘s only viable wide receiver with Julio Jones sidelined for Week 15, but he needs to score 24.6 DraftKings points to hit pay dirt.

Calvin Ridley is projected for 18.25 points in my model, respectable, but not worth the $700 price hike that DraftKings slapped on him.

PRICED-DOWN Wide Receivers

TRAP – Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – $7,200 → $6,700 – $500

Tyler Lockett disappointed in Week 14, only managing 10.2 DraftKings points. He fell short of the 20 point mark for the third consecutive week.

This week Lockett’s primary match should be against cornerback Jimmy Moreland who is giving up less than 6 points to receivers this season. The discount is warranted, but Lockett is still overpriced.

PRICED-UP Tight Ends

PAY-UP – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $7,400 → $8,000 + $600

Embed from Getty Images
Travis Kelce is too good to be priced this low. He will be a staple in most of my cash and tournament lineups in Week 15. Don’t overthink it.

Kelce is averaging 96 receiving yards per game, has 12 touchdowns and 1250 yards on the season. He is a monster.

PASS – Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – $4,500 → $4,800 + $300

Last week Tua connected with Mike Gesicki for two touchdowns before he left the game with a shoulder injury. Word from Gesicki himself is that he will be playing this week.

If he does, I will be fading him due to his matchup against New England. The Patriots defense ranks 3rd against the tight end position, surrendering only 8.8 points per game.



PRICED-DOWN Tight Ends

VALUE – Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay – $4,800 → $4,200 – $600

Gronkowski faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that has surrendered over 700 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns to tight ends.

With Ronald Jones on the COVID list, look for Tampa Bay to turn their attack to the air. Gronk is gonna feast this week!

About Scott Simpson & Bo McBrayer

Follow Scott Simpson and Bo McBrayer on Twitter @Nimblewnumbers and @Bo_McBigTime

Recommended for you

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.