Fantasy Football

2020 NFL Player Prop Bets – Part 1


Although Fantasy Six Pack remains primarily a fantasy sports site, there is an innate connection between fantasy sports and gambling. In both cases, the people who do best are the people who project future outcomes closest to reality.

With that in mind, nobody does it better than Vegas. Year after year, their sports betting books take action on various overs and unders such as yards, touchdowns, or interceptions. While not perfect, Vegas lines give us a general idea of what can be expected from a player in the coming year.

Using these lines, I’ll take a look at at least one 2020 NFL Player Prop Bet from each teamProp lines are courtesy Bovada.

2020 NFL Player Prop Bets – Part 1

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Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals – Under 3950.5 Passing Yards (+110)

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I’m as high as anybody on second-year quarterback Kyler Murray having a breakout season, but I believe it will come in the form of more touchdowns, not necessarily more yardage.

Murray already had the 9th most attempts while playing for the 4th highest paced offense in 2019. One school of thought might be that in both their second years, Kliff Kingsbury will unlock more of the offense through Murray.

However, if we compare Murray’s numbers from the first half of the season to the second half, there is a stark contrast.

2020 NFL Prop Bets

In games 9-16, Murray threw almost five fewer passes per game. This is noteworthy because these are the games where he played with Kenyan Drake, so this is a more realistic projection of the 2020 Cardinals’ offense.

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons – Over 1349.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Say what you want about Julio’s inability to score touchdowns, but when it comes to yardage, he’s as consistent as they come. Since 2014, he has never tallied less than 1,394 yards (last season) and has averaged 1,564.7 yards per season in that span.

There’s no reason to think this will be the season that streak ends. With Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper out of town, the Falcons have little to no depth behind Jones and Calvin Ridley.

In fact, in the eight games after the Falcons traded Sanu, Jones racked up 95 targets or nearly 12 per game. Even at a career-low 8.9 yards per target last year, that would extrapolate to a full-season total of 1,691 yards, meaning there’s a lot of cushion with this bet.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens – Over 64.5 Receptions (-115)

Andrews broke out alongside Lamar Jackson and finished as the TE2 in fantasy. He essentially functioned as the primary receiver in the Ravens’ run-heavy offense, but was only on the field on 41% of the snaps. Compare that to Travis Kelce (92%), George Kittle (76%), and even Darren Waller (91%) and you can see there’s room to grow.

Even with his low snap count, Andrews finished with 64 catches and finished second behind Kittle in yards per route run. He was the best slot “receiver” in the league, leading the league in yards per route run from the slot.

With Marshal Yanda retiring and Jackson progressing as a passer, the Ravens may open up their passing attack a bit more to complement their rushing offense. Andrews figures to be a huge part of that.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills – Under 1049.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Not great value at -130 but the bet is still solid. Diggs only has one season above that yardage number and it was 2019 at 1,130 yards. While being freed from sharing targets with Adam Thielen should be beneficial, he goes from one run-heavy offense to another.

As much as people hate on Kirk Cousins, he’s an above-average quarterback. PFF charted him as having the third-highest Adjusted Completion Percentage (80.2%) in the league compared to Josh Allen‘s 71.7% (22nd).

Allen’s limitations as a passer will mean that the Bills will always be a run-first, ball-control team. Allen threw for 3,089 yards last season and was able to support a 1,000-yard receiver in John Brown. But that doesn’t mean Diggs will immediately jump in and be the top dog in Buffalo. And with no real offseason to develop chemistry, Diggs and Allen will get off to a slow start.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers – Over 3250.5 Passing Yards (-160)

At this low number, if you’re betting the under you’re essentially betting against Bridgewater’s injury history. Bridgewater threw for 3,231 yards in his last full season as a starter (2015) and passed for 228.3 yards per game in his 6 games this season. Obviously, that’s in a completely different Saints‘ offense, but it would have been a 3,653 yard pace.

But most importantly, Kyle Allen of all people threw for 3,322 yards in just 13 games with the Panthers last season. Add in the fact that the Panthers will have a bottom-five defense and Bridgewater should clear this number easily if he stays healthy.

Allen Robinson II, WR, Chicago Bears – Over 1099.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

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When you think of impressive feats NFL wide receivers have accomplished, what comes to mind? Is it Randy Moss‘ 23 touchdowns in a season? Maybe Calvin Johnson‘s 1,964 yards in a season. Or perhaps it’s the fact that Larry Fitzgerald has more career tackles than dropped passes.

You’d be wrong. The most impressive feat a wide receiver has ever accomplished is held by Allen Robinson, who has two separate 1,000-yard seasons: one with Mitch Trubisky and one with Blake Bortles.

Robinson quietly finished as the WR12 with 1,147 yards amidst putrid quarterback play. With Nick Foles expected to take over the starting position, Robinson should match and likely exceed that number in his third year back from an ACL injury.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals – Over 3700.5 Passing Yards (-105)

Without even getting into how talented Burrow is or his situation, history tells us he has a decent shot of hitting this number. In the last 10 years, seven quarterbacks were taken with the first overall pick. Of those seven, five quarterbacks threw for more than 3,700 yards. The only two not to were Sam Bradford in 2010 and Jared Goff who only started five games.

So assuming the Bengals aren’t asinine (never a completely safe bet) and start Burrow from Day 1, he has a good shot. Even better when you consider the Bengals have a decent offensive supporting cast. A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and Tee Higgins is a solid receiving group. On top of that, their defense was 29th in the league last year so they should be playing from behind a lot.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns – Under 1350.5 Rushing Yards (-145)

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The Browns were a disappointment again in 2019, but it’s hard to blame Chubb. He rushed for 1,494 yards (2nd) and racked up nearly 350 touches. He WAS the Browns’ rushing offense, accounting for 84.74% of non-quarterback rushing yards.

That won’t be the case in 2020. New head coach Kevin Stefanski comes from Minnesota where Dalvin Cook was the clear star running back. However, Cook split carries with Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone and only accounted for 54.70% of non-quarterback rushing yards.

The Browns could duplicate that kind of rushing attack with Kareem Hunt and either Dontrell Hilliard or D’Ernest Johnson. Chubb will still be effective and the clear-cut number one, but they won’t ride him as they did in 2019.

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CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

These days, wide receivers are coming into the league and making an immediate impact. Look no further than the 2019 draft class which had four receivers top 750 yards and a fifth who was 10 yards short.

CeeDee Lamb falls into a great spot with the Dallas Cowboys. At first glance, having Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup as competition might make Dallas seem like a bad spot, but after digging deeper, this offense is perfect.

In 2019, the Cowboys supported three wide receivers who all topped 800 yards – Cooper, Gallup, and Randall Cobb. Cobb is now in Houston and it’s fair (and maybe even conservative) to project Lamb will take all 83 of his targets.

While I’m not saying Dak Prescott is Aaron Rodgers, new head coach Mike McCarthy consistently rolled out offenses that were able to float three productive fantasy receivers.

Any concerns about Lamb’s productivity also assumes that Gallup is the automatic WR2 in that offense. I’m a believer in Lamb’s talent and there’s more than a puncher’s chance he usurps that position from Gallup by mid-season.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos – Under 750.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Unlike with Lamb, I’m not as confident in Jeudy’s landing spot. While Drew Lock showed some things in his five games as a starter, the Denver offense still finished 27th in passing attempts and 28th in passing yards.

Switching to Lock and building around him in this offseason was undoubtedly the right move, but I’m not 100% sold yet. In his five games, he threw for 1,020 yards which is a 3,264 yard-pace – even worse than Joe Flacco‘s 3,644-yard pace.

The Broncos’ receiving core is young, but it’s likely that Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant will be the top two options. Outside of them, no Denver player finished with more than 367 receiving yards.

On top of that, the Broncos’ signing of Melvin Gordon signifies they will continue to be run-focused. It’s tough to see Jeudy breaking 750 yards in this limited offense.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions – Over 4150.5 Passing Yards (-125)

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Before a Week 9 injury that knocked him out for the remainder of the season, Stafford was playing some of the best ball of his career in 2019. Through eight games, he had 2,499 yards, 19 touchdowns, and only five interceptions.

Stafford isn’t the prolific stat-padder he was early in has career and has settled around ~4,400 yards from 2014-2017 before finishing under 4,000 yards these last two seasons.

However, in his second year in Darren Bevell’s offense and with weapons all around him, Stafford should flourish.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers – Under 26.5 Touchdown Passes (-120)

It’s hard to go against one of the greatest quarterbacks of my generation, but the signs of slippage have been there for a while with Rodgers now. After beginning his career with a 10-year-span with a TD% of 6.5%, that has dropped to 4.4% over the last two years (post-2017 collarbone injury).

It certainly doesn’t help that management seems adamant on moving the offense away from him. They invested significant draft stock in another running back while ignoring the pass-catching corps entirely.

Outside of Davante Adams, the Packers may have the weakest receiving corps in the league. And at age 37, Rodgers is no longer the hero who can carry a subpar group to lofty heights.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans – Over 849.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

For a receiver who has been as productive as Cooks has been, it’s interesting that nobody seems to want him. He has been traded three times in the last four seasons. But outside of his rookie season and a 2019 season where everything went wrong for the Rams, Cooks has averaged 1,149 yards and just over seven touchdowns in his remaining four seasons.

Now say what you want about Bill O’Brien‘s GM abilities, but he’s not a horrible coach. And there is a huge production hole left by the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Call me crazy, but I don’t trust Will Fuller V, Kenny Stills, or Randall Cobb to step up and fill that hole.

The obvious choice is Cooks, who has been the WR1 on three elite offenses prior in his career. If he can stay healthy, he should blow by 850 yards.

Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts – Over 26.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

I’m not in love with this bet since I’m putting my money on a 39-year-old quarterback in a new situation coming off of a mediocre season.

However, there are some reasons for optimism. The first is that he is familiar with head coach Frank Reich and this offense. Rivers will also be playing behind the best offensive line he’s had in years. That should help him bounce back from a career-low TD% of 3.9% closer to his career average of 5.2%.

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars – Over 3499.5 Passing Yards (+110)

This line is a bit interesting as we’re actually getting positive value on the over. Vegas must be accounting for a sophomore slump from Minshew or that teams will figure him out a bit with more tape on him.

In his 14 games last season, he totaled 3,271 yards which would have been on pace for 3,738 for a full season. The Jaguars are committed to Minshew (which they demonstrated by trading Nick Foles) and he should be the 16-game starter.

On top of that, I fully expect this Jaguars defense to be horrible. Over the last two years, they have been stripped down piece by piece and there’s barely anything left. In a division that has suddenly become offensively competent, Minshew will get into some shootouts as well.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – Under 93.5 Receptions (-115)

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The Chiefs might have the hardest over/under lines to judge in the entire NFL. With the Patrick Mahomes-led juggernaut, almost any number seems attainable.

However, we’re going with the under on Travis Kelce receptions here. Kelce is by no means slowing down and has actually topped 93 receptions in both seasons with Mahomes. His consistency and production has been incredibly over the last six seasons.

But this Chiefs offense is LOADED. Between Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Damien Williams, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, there’s a lot of mouths to feed. While Kelce is certainly target 1A or 1B for Mahomes, I see him dropping towards ~120 targets rather than the 143 targets he has averaged over the last two seasons.

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Part 2 coming soon!

Check out the rest of our offseason Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Kevin Huo

Kevin is a fantasy football writer for Fantasy Six Pack. He considers every angle - whether statistical or theoretical - when weighing his options and isn't afraid to be a contrarian. You can follow him on Twitter: @KevinMHuo

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