2020 NFL Week 11 DFS H2H Thunderdome

by Scott Simpson & Bo McBrayer
2020 NFL Week 11 DFS H2H Thunderdome

Welcome to the 2020 NFL Week 11 DFS H2H Thunderdome!

Each week Scott Simpson (@NimblewNumbers) and Bo McBrayer (@Bo_McBigTime), the DFS writing team over at NimblewNumbers.com, will be facing off in a DraftKings (DK) Head-to-Head (H2H) contest.

Two men enter and one man leaves…richer!

2020 NFL Week 11 DFS H2H Thunderdome

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

Last week was rough. How rough, you ask? My team didn't even score 69 points. Bo beat my team down by over 70 points. Half my stud turned into snowflakes and melted all over my lineup. And just when I thought I had moved past it all, I was confronted with Bo's victory lap on Twitter this week.

I had hit rock bottom and was just about to deactivate my Twitter account and move into a secluded cabin in the woods, never to show my face again. I purchased the land, erected the cabin and I had just sat down on my cabin stoop. Phone in hand, my finger hovering over the deactivation button when suddenly a majestic grizzly bear appeared before me in all his glory.

I dropped my phone and must have snapped a picture before I passed out. When I woke up the bear was gone and this Tweet was all that was left of him and to Bo's dismay, I emerged from the woods, winning lineup in hand, ready to head back to the DFS Thunderdome for one more round.

Scott's Build

Taysom Hill's emergence as starting QB in New Orleans flipped the cash script for me this week. It allowed me to pay down at quarterback, freeing up cash I used to build a roster that has a solid floor and tons of upside.

I focused my lineup construction around games with high implied point totals according to Vegas and/or teams that would be trailing in their matchups, which increases the opportunity for garbage time points. Bo may have won week 10, but in week 11 I'm going fully grizzly bear for the win!

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orlean Saints:  $4,800

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Life comes at you fast. Just ask Jameis Winston, who was the assumed starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints until the bombshell drop right before lunch on Friday that Taysom Hill would be getting the start against the Atlanta Falcons.

Hill's $4800 price tag was too great a value to pass up in this matchup against a Falcons' team who is ranked 32nd against quarterbacks, giving up over 26 points per game on average. Hill is a dual-threat player who will probably make most of his points on the ground rushing. Hill needs to score only 15 points to return 3x value and has a great opportunity to score 20 points.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings:  $9,000

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Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing with 945 rushing yards. He is averaging 119.3 yards per game and has scored 12 touchdowns. He is currently averaging 28.7 DraftKings points per game, which is second only to Christian McCaffery.

The Dallas Cowboys defense is giving up 5.0 yards per carry and an eye-popping 157.0 yards per game. Cook was only priced up $200, so he is an easy smash play in a game where he should see upwards of 25 touches and has a great chance to find the endzone multiple times.

Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts:  $5,200

Last week Nyheim Hines took over the job at the Indianapolis Colts starting running back. I'm sorry you missed the announcement, but last week he rushed 12 times for 70 yards and a score, while also hauling in 5-of -6 targets for 45 yards and another touchdown.

Hines is here to stay and his $5,200 price tag is the lowest you will see for the rest of the season. Buy low.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team:  $6,900

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Terry McLaurin is quarterback proof. Say it again with me, but this time really believe it. Terry McLaurin is quarterback proof and the proof is Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, and Dwayne Haskins.

The real question is what kind of damage is he going to do to a Cinncinati Bengals secondary that just gave up  23 receptions and four receiving touchdowns to Pittsburgh wide receivers in Week 10.

Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: $6,100

Speaking of Pittsburgh wide receivers, I like them all this week against the porous Jacksonville Jaguars secondary, who is giving up an astounding 289 receiving yards a game on average to opposing wide receivers.

Claypool caught two touchdowns last week and is a primate candidate for a repeat performance against a Jag's secondary that saw both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored touchdowns in week 10.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys:  $5,000

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CeeDee Lamb is quietly the 25th ranked wide receiver on DraftKings and his $5,000 price tag reflects the volatility that comes with an Andy Dalton led offense.

Here is what we do know. The Cowboys defense sucks and will almost certainly be giving up points to Davlin Cook and company, who should be able to move the ball up and down the field through the game.

This game script plays into our hands, well actually CeeDee Lamb's hands to be precise. Dallas looks to be trailing and Dalton will need to throw the ball. The Vikings' pressure will keep Dalton busy and his primary target over the middle of the field should be Lamb.

Mark Andrews, TE, Washington Football Team: $4,900

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Mark Andrews is primed to have one of his signature performance against a Titans team that has given up five touchdowns to the tight end position and rank in the bottom half of the league in points per game.

With Nick Boyle out for the season, Andrews is the only tight end game in town and at $4,900, it's worth the potential scoring upside.

Adrian Peterson, Flex, Detriot Lions: $4,000:

The word the street (I've always wanted to write that..) is that Adrian Peterson is in for a big day on Sunday when the Lions travel to Carolina to face the Panthers. D'Andre Swift has been ruled out with a concussion, Matthew Stafford is fighting through a thumb injury, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola have both been declared OUT for Sunday.

So at $4,000, Peterson should be able to return value on your investment.

Miami Dolphins, DST: $3,400

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The Dolphins' defense is legit and Drew Lock is not. Lock is coming off of a rib injury that he suffered last week in the loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.

Look for the Phins to feast on an offense that has struggled to find success against teams not named the Falcons.

Meanwhile, the Phins defense ranks 6th against the quarterback, surrendering the league's 6th lowest QBR at 87.6, while giving up less than 240 passing yards. Look for Miami to run the ball against a Broncos team that just made Devante Booker fantasy relevant again. My prediction is one defensive touchdown for Miami in a lopsided win.

Bo's Build

Week 11 is another inviting week for the casual DFS player. Last week, pay lines were at a two-year low when the “sharps” were unusually blunted. Scott had a historically bad week against me and my lineup was as solid as granite. In any cash game, including Head-to-Head battles, I am looking for a reliable floor of volume at every position according to the player’s salary.

Since I expect Captain Snowflake to exhibit some positive regression this week, my lineup will be architected with a touch more upside and risk than my other Cash builds for 50/50s. This slate has such diversity that I don’t expect to have many matching players with my H2H opponent. The key here is to stick to your own build and not worry about who he or she might roll out.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings:  $6,200

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It isn’t primetime, nor is it the vaunted Bears defense. The Cowboys have been better against the run lately with the return of Leighton Vander Esch and the promotion of Antwaun Woods. They have still been abysmal against the passing game. Cousins is vibing with both Thielen and Jefferson and should have a very solid game for his price.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans:  $8,000

King Henry is entering his annual Santa Claus run through the NFL, where the cold weather amps him up to nearly seven yards per carry for his career. The Ravens are coming off a gashing from the Patriots running game, namely Damien Harris. I love the quiet upside from Henry after a few down performances.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys:  $6,500

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Zeke is coming off the bye with fresh legs and looked sharp against the Steelers in his last game. The Vikings’ run defense is only average. I simply love Zeke’s price this week, as people forget about his receiving upside and how due he is for a breakout.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings:  $6,300

This is the cash play out of the Vikings’ pair of receivers. Thielen is a red zone target for Cousins and has been rock steady all season. His price is also way too low for a top ten wide receiver in this good of a spot.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings: $6,000

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This is the risky play on my board, especially in a cash game. For me, the value and explosiveness Jefferson can show against a weak Cowboys secondary was too good to pass up on. I normally don’t game stack in H2H, but I might need to hit a high number to come out on top this week.

Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys:  $3,700

Another insane value on the board in a game that could very well shatter the expected total. Gallup was the most targeted receiver for the Cowboys when Andy Dalton was on the field before getting hurt. It rolls into the narrative I’m writing that this will be an exciting game with many big plays, thus I’m putting a lot of eggs in this basket.

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team: $3,300

This is simply a value play at a very thin position. With Thomas’ consistent target share, along with his low price and great matchup, I am hoping he can crack double digits for me.

Miles Sanders, Flex, Philadelphia Eagles: $6,900:

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I just think Sanders will have a massive game against the Browns. The weather is shaping up to be bad, but not terrible, so the running and short passing game will be a focal point to get the ball out of Carson Wentz’s hands. I have Sanders in 80% of my lineups this week.

Washington Football Team, DST: $2,900

This defense is really strong up front and on the outside. They will get after Burrow and force him to check down a lot or take sacks. If he takes risks to the outside, they will turn him over. It’s simply a great matchup that I aim to exploit.

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

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