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2020 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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It’s a new week, but I come into the 2020 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article still smarting from last week. My entry fell short from cashing by five measly points. I say this often, but it always hurts more to lose by a little.

And perhaps I’m overcompensating, but my bets this week feel pretty aggressive. I have only three bets out of ten this week where I will be winning less than 100 points. One of them is below. If you want to know who the others are, you can direct message me on Twitter.

Which brings us to our weekly reminder of what makes ThriveFantasy different.  You are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

I will once again feature three overs and one under this week. I’m back to going heavy OVER with the only additional potential UNDER I am considering is James Connor. Connor’s time as the workhorse RB in Pittsburgh is coming due, I’m just not sure if its this week or not.

On a related note, I will mention that a popular bet you can also bet whether or not the Steelers going undefeated. (It’s not on ThriveFantasy, but other sites out there). You can do what you wish, but there’s no way I’m taking that bet. Going undefeated in the NFL is so hard. Almost as hard as going undefeated with your prop bets! But I’m gonna try, so here’s a few of my 2020 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy picks below.

2020 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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The Overs

We are going to once again highlight an over at three different positions. We start this week at the TE position.

Darren Waller – .5 receiving TDs 110 points – OVER

I like to have some action in the Sunday night game and this was my favorite bet from that game offered by ThriveFantasy this week. Waller has been one of the better TEs this year, but surprisingly he’s had 37 yards or less in each of his last three games. The good news however is we are not betting on his yardage totals, we are betting on him to score.

He’s been targeted five times in eight of nine games this year. Waller was also targeted eight or more times in five games. He was only targeted seven times the last time the Raiders tangled with the Chiefs. However, Waller managed to turn that into five catches for 48 yards and most importantly, a score. What is also noteworthy is that Waller’s better games have come in close games. However, when the Raiders dominate their opponent, he tends to disappear. I don’t think we need to worry about the Raiders dominating the 8-1 Chiefs.

Terry McLaurin – 82.5 Receiving TDs 100 points – OVER

McLaurin is coming off another strong game, with seven catches and 122 total yards. For those not paying attention, that is at least 19 PPR points in each of the last three games, all of which Smith has been the quarterback. And McLaurin also has at least 11 PPR points in eight of nine games. He’s Washington’s primary weapon; he has a league-high 41.6% of the team’s air yards. Basically, he’s a stud:

And against this Bengals, he could have another huge day. Cincinnati has allowed opposing WRs an eighth-worst in the league 1.93 PPR points per target. They’ve also allowed 11 WRs to finish with 15+ PPR points.

As mentioned last week, Washington rarely allows just one cornerback to shadow McLaurin. Even if Cincinnati chooses to have William Jackson shadow McLaurin, Jackson has seen 44 passes against him with receivers having caught 25 of them for 332 yards and three touchdowns. I’m taking the OVER and not thinking twice about it.

Dalvin Cook – 120.5 rushing yards + receiving yards 95 points – OVER

Now this bet, however, I’m thinking about a little more.

Anytime you are faced with a prop over the century mark for any player, that’s a pretty high hurdle for a prop.  And even if the player and team is doing well, the coach might take them out to give him some rest. And coming off a shorter week and a previous game of 30-carries, we might not see Cook get as much action this week as usual. Throw in the five points we are giving up, I’m bitting my lower lip a bit with this.

However, the Cowboys have given up a Texas-sized 4.71 yards per carry. Furthermore, Cook has hit our mark of over 120 combined yards in five of his last six games. I think this one is going to be close, but I’d rather better on Cook than against him.

The Under

Tyler Boyd – 4.5 recs passing yards – 120 points – UNDER

I am warning you–this is a very aggressive bet. Boyd is averaging nearly seven receptions. Even the last couple of games when Boyd was less targeted, he still had six receptions. Boyd is one of only ten pass-catchers that have eight-plus targets in at least two-thirds of their games. But I am not coming up just short this week. Consider yourself warned. But that’s why ThriveFantasy is baiting us with an extra 20 points and I’m taking it. I could end up on the wrong end of a line, but I like my odds of munching heavily on this tasty morsel.

Because let’s get back to him being less targeted lately. The Bengals have been scheming a way to get Tee Higgins the ball lately. And that’s probably because Higgins YAC/reception exceeds Boyd by 60%. I would expect the Bengals to continue to feature the 33rd overall rookie pick. Of course, that’s assuming the Bengals can even get the passing game going.

Washington has quietly been one of the better defenses this year. They are stonewalling running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends combined for the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. Furthermore, of that limited output, less than 44% is going to wide receivers, one of the best marks in the NFL. They’ve allowed just a couple of opposing receivers to finish better than the WR22. But wait….there’s more!

As you might know, Boyd spends most of his time in the slot. The burgundy and gold have been particularly good against slot-heavy receivers. The best was interestingly one of my favorite older receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, who had all of seven catches for 50 yards against Washington. Those dozen PPR points were greater than what they have allowed to some pretty decent competition. The list of impressive receivers, most of whom I think are more talented than Boyd, that they have shut down include Danny Amendola, Jarvis Landry, Sterling Shepard, CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp. DB Jimmy Moreland isn’t quite Darrel Green, but he’s allowed just 136 scoreless yards on 25 slot targets.

I’m taking the UNDER.


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Good luck with your 2020 NFL Week 11 ThriveFantasy bets!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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