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2020 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Doubled up last week, but I’m going to do things a little different this week for my 2020 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article.

If I had to provide a reason, it’s probably because I hate the slate of options in this week’s pools. If I like a player, ThriveFantasy has the stat I’m least confident that player achieving. Or if it’s a player I want to fade, it’s the stat I feel they will have the easiest time hitting. Or the prop bets ThriveFantasy lists for quarterbacks are a lot of the over/under 1 INT prop bet that I hate.

And I’m coming in strong. I was all over Antonio Gibson on Thanksgiving. That obviously worked out well. However, in the great yin and yang that is my life, I also went up against him in the seasonal league where I’ve got the best shot to win it all. The chance of the number one overall seed is disappearing faster than my waistline!

Sorry, I digressed. The point is instead of the usual pool bets, we are going to take advantage of another feature that ThriveFantasy has known as its Props Lobby.  It’s a list of say three dozen props and you can pick your base wager and how many you want, but you must hit all of them to win. And obviously the more you pick, the higher the payout.

I’m going with the four-bet option that pays eleven times your wager. Given how things are constantly changing, it is possible I might change these before kickoff. And yes, none of them are quarterbacks. But here are four 2020 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy picks I like.

2020 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Prop Bet #1 Darren Waller – 55.5 Total Receiving Yards – OVER

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Waller is an easy and obvious pick this week. Last Sunday. he caught all seven of his targets for 88 yards and a TD. Of course, Waller scoring should be of little surprise as he leads the NFL with 17 red-zone targets and happens to account for more than 35 percent of those for the Raiders.

The Raiders have been a little enigmatic when it comes to their game plan this year, so I went back and looked at 2019 to see how many times Waller hit this mark. The answer was ten times. He’s a little off that pace this year, but I think he can hit that again. I will once again remind you that the Falcons are the most generous in giving up fantasy points to TEs this year.

But I read a stat earlier this week that was even more telling. Do you recall how bad Arizona was versus opposing TEs last season? Opposing TEs notched 2.39 PPR points per target versus the Cardinals. Through 10 games the Falcons have allowed 2.46 PPR points per target.

Case closed.

Prop Bet #2 Josh Jacobs – 89.5 Rush Yardsds + Receiving Yards – OVER

The good news is that Jacobs is averaging over 20 carries a game over the last four weeks and is averaging well over four yards per carry during that time, so he could easily hit 90 yards just on rushing. As we know, Jacobs has been a monster on the ground:

However, this prop is the one I am most nervous about this week as we know the best way to beat the Falcons is through the air.

However, the Raiders do seem to target Jacobs more when playing teams susceptible to the pass. He saw four or more targets in games against New England, Buffalo, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, for example, all of which are weaker against the pass than the run. And the Falcons are allowing 5.5 receptions and 40.6 receiving yards per game to running backs.

Let’s go conservative and cut that in half, giving Jacobs just 20 receiving yards. Jacobs has 755 rushing yards so far this year or a little more than 75 rushing yards per game. Again, let’s be conservative and give Jacobs 18 carries at four yards per carry for a total of 72 rushing yards. That gives us a total of 92 yards. You could argue that given this game has an over/under of nearly 54 points, we are being too conservative. But even with all these conservative estimates, we still surpass the necessary level by a couple of yards. I’m likely going to sweat this one out, but in the end, I’ll be glad I took the OVER.

Prop Bet #3 Stefon Diggs – 77.5 Total Receiving Yards – OVER

I really liked John Brown originally in this game, but he is now out. Brown’s absence will elevate Cole Beasley‘s production more than anyone else’s. However, I do see about 20% of what I expected to go Brown’s way now to go to Buffalo’s WR1, Diggs. It’s not like Diggs wasn’t going to have a solid game before Brown was declared out either.

Diggs and Terry McLaurin are currently the only receivers who have had six or more targets in every game they’ve played this season. Furthermore, since week 5, Diggs has seen eight targets or more every week. Even if he catches just seven passes (which would be below his average) and does no better this his weekly YPC rate of 12.4, he still easily eclipses our necessary mark of 78 receiving yards.

It is also worth noting that Diggs is currently the number two wide receiver in yards, just six yards behind DeAndre Hopkins. That’s important because the Chargers don’t allow a ton of WR receptions. However, when they do, the WRs turn that into big gains.  The Chargers are allowing 13.83 yards per reception or fifth-most in the league.

Casey Hayward is a pretty good DB and is likely to shadow Diggs. However, he’s been prone to allowing the big play, allowing at least one 20-plus yard catch in each of his last four games. We know Diggs often win one-on-one match-ups with nearly any cornerback in the league. Given Diggs’ massive target share in a game with a projected over/under close to 53 points, I like Diggs and the OVER here.

Prop Bet #4 Evan Engram – 35.5 Total Receiving Yards – OVER

Engram hit a bit of a bump in the road last week. I am not worried, as divisional games often see strange things happen. Engram hit our total the three games previous to last week. Furthermore, he has also been the third most targeted tight end in the NFL behind Travis Kelce and Waller. Yes, he sometimes drops some easy ones, but he can also make the tough catch.

He’s averaging nearly seven targets a game. Let’s assume he only catches four passes. He’s averaging over nine yards per catch. That’s 36 yards–good enough for us to win on this bet.

But those are averages. Cincinnati is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Bengals have allowed 70% of the TEs they’ve faced to total double-digit PPR points, including five who racked up 56 or more receiving yards. That is a) well above our number and b) indicative that it is not just TD-driven. I think last week’s meager output for Engram was the exception, not the rule. ThriveFantasy set this right around Engram’s average. Against Cincinnati, I think Engram exceeds his average.

Good luck with your 2020 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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