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2020 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Some weeks I’m less confident, but I’m feeling good about my 2020 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks this week.

I hope you had a good Thanksgiving, I know I did. But Thanksgiving week was an extremely hectic week for me. This week was a little lighter, which allowed me to dig a little deeper this week. And that makes both of us the beneficiary.

Because I swung and missed last week. I apologize for that. But as I said, I did more research this week than last week, and I’m coming in heavily armed for the Week13 ThriveFantasy pools.

And we return with our weekly reminder of what makes ThriveFantasy different.  You are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

I will once again feature three overs and one under this week. There are two bets I really like this week and what might seem like a bit of a daring under. But I assure you that none have been treated lightly. Let me know how you feel about some of the additional support I am providing with the Week 13 ThriveFantasy picks below.

2020 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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The Overs

Austin Ekeler – 55.5 rushing yards 115 points – OVER

We start with one of the easiest props on the board. At 55.5 rushing yards, this bet should have either been even or the UNDER should have been given the extra points, not the OVER. But we’re getting an extra 15 points for the more likely scenario? Perhaps I jumped too soon. Maybe I was missing something.

I double-checked the match-up, and New England is allowing the 15th fewest fantasy points to RBs per game. So if the match-up was middle of the road, maybe I was missing something on Ekeler. Perhaps he’s not as welcome back as I thought, so I looked at this game log. Ekeler has played five games this year. In two of those games he finished below our mark of 55 rushing yards. One was the game in which he was injured and got only two carries. The other was last week when he rushed for “only” 44 yards in his first game back. Neither one concerns me. I’m putting a lot more weight on the other three games. When we add in the fact that the Pats are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity, I am not concerned.

If this bet was set higher, say closer to the 76 yards he averaged in his other three games, it might be concerning. But it’s not AND we are getting an extra 15 points? Yes, thank you.

Allen Robinson – 5.5 completions 105 points – OVER

This bet is almost as “easy” as the previous one, but it does make a little more sense. Robinson has 71 catches over 11 games or an average of a little over six catches a game. He will have to hit that mark in order for this bet to hit. And given that the Lions have been crushed by the run this year, he might be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the 13 targets he saw last week.

Or maybe not. The Bears are running the ball less than all 31 other teams and less than 33% percent of the time. Moreover, Trubisky and Robinson have pulverized the Lions time and time again. Trubisky scares me also, but take a look at this:

Opponent G Comp Att/gm Yds/gm YPA TD INT
Lions 6 22.8 33.8 266.8 7.96 2.33 0.67
All Others 39 19.3 31.0 198.8 6.42 1.10 0.77

Meanwhile, Robinson started making catches non-stop on the Lions years ago…

Since then, all he has done is go five catches for 74 yards,  eight for 86 yards, and six for 86. The five catches might be a little concerning, but we are getting an extra five points. I like my odds of betting on Robinson to dominate. I’m taking the OVER.

Justin Jefferson – 85.5 receiving yards 100 points – OVER

Well, that’s it for the “easy” bets. Jefferson is averaging a little over 83 yards per game, so this pretty close to the line. However, I’m hoping many take the UNDER on this bet based on his “average”.  I’ve said multiple times how impressed I am with Jefferson and given that I believe this is a fair bet, I’m betting on talent. And the quick counter-argument to Jefferson’s average being lower than the line is that his average is brought down by the rookie’s first two games where he was targeted only three times.

Here’s more:

  • He has a dozen catches for 20+ yards. Both he and Tyreek Hill lead the NFL in that category.
  • Jacksonville is sixth in the league for allowing the most plays of 20-plus yards with 39.
  • Jacksonvillle is allowing 9.32 yards per target to wide receivers. Atlanta is the only team allowing more.
  • The Jags do not have a lot of depth at defensive back. C.J. Henderson is out and Sidney Jones is currently questionable. Their replacements, Luq Barcoo and Josiah Scott, have been scorched for a combined 8-of-10 passing for 111 yards and a touchdown in coverage.
  • I was surprised to learn that Cousins is second in yards per attempt. The issue has been the number of attempts he has per game. Yet the Jags are allowing more than five attempts per game on average than Cousins is averaging, meaning there should be some additional passing yards out there to claim.

I think Jefferson gets some of that, I’m taking the OVER.

The Under

DK Metcalf- 5.5 receptions – 90 points – UNDER

I want to be very clear on this–this is not a total fade of Metcalf in any way. He could still get a score or two and still hit the century mark. But lots of reasons why I think he gets a few less catches than usual.

Let’s start with an interesting fact I picked up from Football Outsiders. The G-men are the number four DVOA defense against number one receivers but are the number 22 against number two receivers. My suspicion is that the Giants will treat Metcalf like the number one receiver. I suspect one of the best CBs in the NFC, James Bradberry, will cover Metcalf and might even get a little safety help. Everyone was all over Lockett this past week, but I think they were just a week early. I think Lockett is going to be much more heavily targeted than Metcalf.

And that’s assuming the Seahawks don’t go extremely run-heavy. Did you see this quote from Coach Pete Carroll earlier this week?

“…when he [Wilson] has to throw the ball 40 times or 50 times. He certainly can do it and loves doing it and we don’t mind doing it, but our football is better shaped when we’re balanced and we’re attacking you and we can play off of that”

I think we are going to see a lot of Chris Carson this week, which will in turn limit the number of targets that Metcalf gets. Metcalf has seen double-digit targets in only three games this year. The result is that he has had four or fewer receptions in seven of eleven games this year. Given all the other reasons I’ve supplied, I will lean on the side of what has happened more rather than less.

Finally, just as a sanity check I used our old friend Bob Lung’s PropBet Consistency Tool. That recommends taking the over at 3.5 receptions and lower. Anything four and higher, including our 5.5 mark, it recommends taking the under. I agree.

Good luck with your 2020 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy bets!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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