2020 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2020 Fantasy Football Week 4 Quarterback Streaming

I am looking forward to the playoffs, but the truth is I'm ready to be done with the 2020 NFL season and that includes the 2020 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks.

Because the Covid-19 thing has impacted me both as a seasonal player, a gambler, and as a fantasy football writer. And yes, perhaps the timing is good since we can see the finish line from here. But if I'm being honest,  I'm getting real sick of it. Every year brings plenty of injuries and surprises. But even if a player is healthy, he can be put on the Covid-19 list due to contact tracing and end up not playing in a game.

And the perfect example of this is Donovan Peoples-Jones. That's a lot to write, so I'm calling him DPJ from here on out. I absolutely loved him this week as a cheap play and had plenty of shares of him in my DFS line-ups. In addition to all that personal investing, I  had even written lengthy sections that would be published about him as a great play for Sunday. And then boom! DPJ ends on up the Covid-19 list and I got to start all over again. I am done. But for you fair reader I know I kind of owe you some picks.

Here's my weekly reminder of what makes ThriveFantasy different.  You are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

For this week, we will do a special QB-only theme. But it's gonna be a little more rapid-fire than typical because as I have said, I'm kind of at my end. But for you dear reader, here are a handful of Week 16 ThriveFantasy picks I like.

2020 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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The Overs

Justin Herbert - 25.5 Completions - 100 points -OVER

As you will see, this is my only QB prop bet at "even money". I need to have it given all the others I have that are not. But I like this at even odds.

Herbert is averaging more than 27 completions per game. Herbert had only 22 completions in his last game, but I remind you that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were a little gimpy coming into that game.

Meanwhile, the last time he faced Denver, he completed 29 of 43 passes. I suspect that he will probably have fewer attempts, but complete closer to the 66.5% of passes he is completing on the season. That puts us between 26 and 27 passes. It's going to be tight. But it's even odds and I'll take the OVER here.

Patrick Mahomes - 22.5 Completions - 80 points - OVER

I missed y'all for Christmas, so belated holiday wishes to everyone. And if you're not Christmas songed out, take it away Pat.....

Unlike Rudolph, I'm sure Mahomes could play any games that he wanted. And speaking of games, I will point out that Mahomes has less than 23 completions in just four of 14 games this year and not a one in the last eight weeks. Giving up 20 points is tough, but I'm not betting against Mahomes.

Looking for something a little more tangible? The books set this game at 53 points. Atlanta is one of the better run defenses and one of the poorer pass defenses. I wouldn't expect the Chiefs to do a lot of running. Even if you want to argue that they'll want to keep the Atlanta offense off the field, when was the last time you saw Andy Reid run a slow, ball-control offense? Case closed.

Baker Mayfield - 1.5 Pass TDs - 90 points - OVER

My original thought was that I was going to take the OVER as Mayfield could easily have two passing touchdowns and then some against the Jets. Maybe one to Jarvis Landry, another to the aforementioned DPJ, maybe a TE, and perhaps a toss to Kareem Hunt.

Half of those options are now non-options. Half remains. I think people will now take the UNDER, but I'm going to stick to my guns and hopefully zig while others are zagging. More than two touchdowns might be a little to ask for, but two? Yeah, I think Mayfield does that still. Take the Over

The Under

Teddy Bridgewater - 2.5 Passing TDs+Ints - 115 points - UNDER

This one is pretty simple. Bridgewater has played 13 games this year. Of those 13 games, he has thrown for a total combination of three TDs and interceptions all of two games this season.

If we took the other side of this bet, we'd be giving up 15 points AND betting on something that has happened less than 20% of the time. Those two games were against TB and Arizona. Other than both teams having signed checks with Bruce Arians name on it, is there any kind of strong similarity between those teams?

No, there isn't. And yes, the WFT is good against the run, but they're also good against the pass. Is there anything about this matchup that makes you think the Panthers are suddenly going to start let Teddy airing it out instead of focusing on the run game and shorter passes? Yeah, me neither. Take the UNDER.

Good luck with your 2020 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy bets!

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