2020 NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2021 Dynasty Football WR Buy and Sell

It looks like all the games scheduled for this weekend are going to happen, so I can look at the whole slate of NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy prop bet picks. Thank goodness!

Seriously, I think the issues with the pandemic are starting to get to everyone. And maybe it's affecting me, but I will say this publicly: I would give up my life if it meant the rest of my family was financially secure and we had uninterrupted sports. A life without sports is a life less lived in my opinion. If I was compensated accordingly, I would be happy for example to be a test subject for an anti-virus. It's similar to how I would gladly join the military and go on a suicide mission to eliminate a terrorist organization. But the military and all other operative sectors won't even take my application. Some malarkey about me being too old. Apparently, there's no age limit to be president but there is to giving up your life for your country?

Sorry, went on a little tangent there. I think that the whole thought process got started because one of the chalkiest games this week was the one that most likely seemed to be in danger. Fortunately, it looks like we are going to have the Minnesota/Atlanta game. However, I am not going to feature any picks from that game. I'll let others take that. Besides, the ThriveFantasy options are not great for that game anyway.

Which brings us to the weekly reminder of what makes ThriveFantasy different.  You are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

For the second week in a row, I have a higher amount of UNDERs than I usually do. But I will once again feature three overs and one under this week. With the housekeeping out of the way, let's get to the NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy picks.

2020 NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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The Overs

Davante Adams - 78.5 receiving yards  95 points - OVER

The truth is the Bucs' secondary has been pretty good. However, it hasn't been that good. They are also tied with seven other teams for the sixth-fewest TD passes. But they are also 18th in passing yards allowed. It's not a soft matchup, but it's not one to run away from either.

Furthermore, the Bucs recently lost both LB Jake Cichy and DL Vita Vea to injured reserve. Tampa Bay can probably survive without Cichy this week, but the loss of Vea is huge. Vea was ranked the third-best interior lineman coming into last week's games. The loss might be going under the radar, but it shouldn't. One of the reasons that Rodgers "You Ain't Ready For Love" tour is going strong is because he has not been pressured very much. He's been sacked just three times this season and is one of the best quarterbacks in the game when he can stay in the pocket. I think he will hit a bump against a team that can pressure Rodgers. But that's not the Buccaneers.

Rodgers and his pass-catchers should see big numbers. And that starts with Adams. His cumulative stats are nothing impressive as he has not played the last three weeks due to a bye and injuries. But Adams still averaged double-digit targets to start the season and should see close to that number this week as well. Given that Adams is averaging 11.3 YPC, it would only take seven catches to hit our threshold at that level. Take the OVER.

Antonio Gibson 72.5 rushing + receiving yards 95 points - OVER

Yes, another pick where I am taking a five point "penalty" in order to take the easy points. Don't worry, I will balance it elsewhere. Because I am very confident in this happening and I am not alone in suggesting you get in on the Gibson action:

The amusing part is that in five games this year, Gibson has only hit our mark once. So unless you believe "past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results", you might be tempted to stay away from this one. But here's the counter-argument: Gibson's opponent this weekend, the New York Giants, has given up the 12th most fantasy points to RBs this year. That is not a good "past performance". That's also noteworthy because every team that Washington has faced so far this season has been a tougher match-up for RBs than this one.

Gibson has averaged ten carries and five targets over the last couple of weeks. He's averaging over four yards a carry and over eight yards a target. Some quick math and we get eighty total yards, easily putting him over the 72.5 mark. And remember, Gibson has an easier match-up this week and I think he sees combined yardage much closer to triple digits. Again, I'll take the over.

So we got a WR prop and an RB prop bet, let's look at a QB.

Matthew Stafford - 23.5 completions 105 points - OVER

And Stafford is one of my preferred QB ThriveFantasy options this week. This bet is also one of the places we will get our five points back. And here's why we will get it back.

The Detroit/Jacksonville game is one of the higher over/unders this week so there should be a high volume of scoring on both sides. And with Jacksonville giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs, this is looking like a great match-up for Stafford. In addition to a strong matchup, Stafford will be well-rested coming in off the bye. However, he might not have wanted the break. His touchdown rate has been steadily rising each week. He's now up to eight touchdowns through four games and should easily match his two-touchdown-a-game average and might even double that in Jacksonville this weekend.

However, Stafford could still have a solid game and fall short on the completions. He is averaging less than 21 completions per game. Am I being too confident in the match-up providing what we need? What to do....and my regular readers know what's coming. Once again, I consulted our buddy Bob Lung and his prop bet consistency tool.  It is not until we get to 25 completions that Bob recommends taking the UNDER and it's still "with caution". We are pretty close to the border, but we are on the correct side of it and get an extra five points in addition. We are going to sweat this bet out, but I still think it hits.

The Under

I've given you a QB, an RB, and a WR prop bet today. Let's do something we normally don't do--a kicker prop bet!

Robbie Gould- 6.5 points - 120 points - UNDER

This is not the first time ThriveFantasy has offered its users a kicker prop bet. However, ThriveFantasy probably offers a kicker prop bet less than once a week. I am not sure why that is. I am sure there is reason, but don't ask me what it is. But I like to take partake in unique opportunities. So I am going to jump on this and I like the UNDER side a lot.

In Gould's first three games he scored 7 points or more. In his last two, he did not. I don't think under 7 points is a trend (you need three data points to make a trend). But I like what I'm seeing from this 49er team less and less this year. And the books agree with me, making the 49ers a three-point underdog at home. I won't be surprised to see this game getting out of hand very quickly and enough so that the 49ers will be forced to go for touchdowns and not go for FGs.

The Rams meanwhile have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to kickers and that includes less than seven fantasy points in three out of their five games. And remember, our 6.5 line is actual points, not fantasy points. So whether Gould hits a 30-yard FG or a 60-yard FG, he is still only getting three points. And speaking of points, ThriveFantasy is giving us an extra 20 points to take this bet. I'll take the bet.

Good luck with your NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy bets!

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