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2020 NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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The 2020 NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks will be key with my stake management this year.

I currently have lost more money than I have won. However, a win this week will put me right back into the profit column. And had it not been for the Aaron Rodgers debacle last week, I would have cashed.

Of course, if the queen had ’em she’d be king…but let’s move onto this week, shall we?

I am looking to change my luck this week. Last week I spread it around without duplicating a position. I will do the exact opposite this week and all three of my OVER picks will be WRs.

I could have actually given you four WR OVER picks this week but decided my usual three was enough.

It’s all about the choices we make, right? And that includes looking for a bounce-back this week on ThriveFantasy.

Which brings us to the weekly reminder of what makes ThriveFantasy different.  You are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

But I will once again feature three overs and one under this week. With the housekeeping out of the way, let’s get to the NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy picks.

2020 NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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The Overs

Will Fuller – 78.5 receiving yards 100 points – OVER

The odds of Fuller being close to his mark are pretty slim. He will either be 20 or more yards short, or he will absolutely blow past it. We know Fuller is a far better “best ball” fantasy option than a reliable consistent option we can regularly rely on seasonal fantasy. So you will hopefully understand that my analysis of Fuller’s likely output this weekend is not super intricate.

For what little it’s worth, he is averaging about 90 receiving yards a game…if we throw out the Baltimore game where he spent much of the game on the sideline. If not, his average suddenly drops below our mark above.

So instead of looking at the whole season, let’s look at simply the last few games. Here is what that looks like:

  • Week 4 – vs MIN – 108 rec yds
  • Week 5 – vs JAC – 58 rec yds
  • Week 6 – @ TEN – 123 rec yds

We can see that the tougher the opponent, the more yards Fuller has. Green Bay is not an easy match-up. Therefore, I’d bet even money that Fuller easily hits 80 yards and then some this weekend.

Let’s look at one more WR receiving option and I promise I will be more detailed.

D.K. Metcalf – 77.5 receiving yards 105 points – OVER

I absolutely love this bet this week. I am tempted to even use the “L” word, as in “lock”. Because I would love this bet at even money and the fact that I’m getting an extra five points makes it unbelievably enticing. However, I’ve been in this situation way too many times before, that I have this running through my head:



But, if we are smart enough to recognize all the reasons why it won’t hit and try to understand why ThriveFantasy is tempting us with the extra five points, it’s not a trap bet. Let’s tackle some of those.

For one, there were rumors early in the week that Antonio Brown would be signing with Seattle which would have likely taken some targets away from Metcalf. Fortunately, that didn’t happen. Secondly, Arizona is far better against the pass than people realize. They are the tenth stingiest team when it comes to giving up fantasy points per game to WRs. Third, Metcalf had his lowest YPC last week at only 15.5. Furthermore, the Cardinals had some injury questions, but are coming in relatively healthy on the defensive side of the ball. Finally, we know Pete Carroll loves to run the ball. However, we also know that the Seahawks defense is forcing the team into shoot-outs, so I’m not worried about Metcalf not getting enough targets to hit his usual marks.

Because Metcalf has had 93 receiving yards or more in EVERY game this season. Furthermore, he saw 11 targets last week. Even if his targets jump down to his season low of half a dozen, he has yet to catch less than 50% of his targets in a game this season. He has 39 targets on the season. To keep the math simple, let’s round that up to 40 to give us an even 8 targets a game. Just 50% of that is four catches. And even with last week, he is still averaging over 23 YPC. Four times 23 easily puts us over the 77.5 receiving yards mark.

We did play with the math a little, but given that the books have this game as the highest over/under of the week at nearly 57 points, we should expect this game to become a shoot-out. I’m confident Metcalf gets his targets. He has a more complete game than Fuller and I think Metcalf easily gets to 80 receiving yards. I’m not worried and I’m taking the OVER.

Kenny Golladay – 4.5 receptions 80 points – OVER

I’ve got to tip my cap to ThriveFantasy on this one. They are making the UNDER look very tempting. They are baiting you with an extra 20 points to bet against something that has only happened once this season!

Go average out the numbers so far this season. Golladay is averaging less than five catches a game.

Go even one more step and look at last season’s numbers which was probably Golladay’s best season yet and he still averages only four catches a game.

But as we proved with Fuller, averages can be deceiving. Golladay has a relatively small sample size this season. (My college girlfriends said I suffer from that every season) Therefore, I am going to narrow my focus.

We know that Golladay is Detroit’s primary receiver, which means in a completely organic game flow, Golladay should see at least half a dozen but likely more targets. Furthermore, Golladay should be able to convert said targets into catches given the fact that Atlanta is giving up the fourth most WRs fantasy points per game this season.

Finally, the books have set the over/under for this game at 56 points, meaning it to should be high scoring and there will be plenty of passing opportunities.

This is not a slam dunk given that we have to give 20 points, but the probabilities of Golladay getting at least five catches is high enough I’m willing to be conservative here.

The Under

Tom Brady – 282.5 passing yards – 100 points – UNDER

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Brady has to be one of the happiest guys in the NFL this year. He went from the Patriots who refused to pay top dollar for a single receiver to the Buccaneers who just added ANOTHER top talent WR. We can argue all day if its worth “paying the diva”. The fact is that bringing Brown is another wrinkle that the 49ers defense will have to consider. I think it will give Brady more options. However, I don’t think it’s going to give Brady additional yards that he would not have had otherwise.

This game has an over/under in the mid-40s. I suspect that is less of a knock on these offenses but more of an acknowledgment of the likely pace of play. According to Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay’s total pace of play is smack in the middle and drops to the 21st fastest in neutral situations. Brady’s opponent, the 49ers, are far worse and drop all the way to the second slowest team in neutral situations.

Of course, the 49ers giving up the fifth-lowest yards per pass attempt does not bode well for Brady’s yardage totals either. But even if we take out all match-up and game flow considerations of the equation, Brady’s numbers themselves don’t inspire a lot of confidence.

If we look at his career numbers, Brady is averaging only 261 passing yards per game. That’s nearly 20 yards per game lower than our mark. And for those who want to argue that the TB situation is different than his years in NE? Fine. In Tommy Terrific’s six games this year, he’s only hit that mark or over twice. In fact, his average is even lower, passing for less than 257 yards per game this year. I do think he eclipses the 260-yard mark this week, but at even money, I’m betting against him getting to the 283-yard mark.

And I had decided that before I even checked our friend Bob Lung’s PropBet tool. He too advocates taking the under confidently starting at 277 yards.  I didn’t need any more support, but it’s one more reason this is one of my favorite UNDERs of the week.

Good luck with your NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy bets!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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