Fantasy Football

2020 NFL Win Totals: Best Bets


A good starting exercise for Fantasy Football is going over the Vegas over/unders on each team’s win total. So before really diving into player statistics, let’s look at the 2020 NFL win totals.

Taking a look at the 2020 NFL win totals will also be a huge start at building your gambling theory for the season. Week 1 lines can always be deceiving. Week 2 can be even crazier after outlier performances the first week.

By taking stock of how you feel about the overarching perception of each team represented by the 2020 NFL win totals, you can really get off to a great start if you are correct about certain teams.

Imagine last year you were low on the Dolphins and thought they were an under team. If you start the year betting against them the first few weeks you were handsomely rewarded. This also goes the other way if you thought the 49ers were an over team.

For Fantasy Football purposes, looking at the 2020 NFL win totals can help you figure out if there are certain teams you want to stack. Is a certain division looking particularly weak, so you want the defenses in it? (Yes, the NFC East) Is another division looking strong like there will be a lot of high-scoring games so you want to load up your skill positions in it? (Yes, the NFC and AFC West)

So let’s take a look at some of the best bets for the 2020 NFL win totals. One final note: if you add up all of the 2020 NFL win totals it comes out to 263.5. There are only 256 games with usually a tie a year. So there is inherent value in the unders.

2020 NFL Win Totals Best Bets

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Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins

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All of the off-season talk has been about losing Byron Jones to the biggest contract ever for a cornerback, trying to sign Dak long-term and having Ceedee Lamb fall into Dallas’ lap in the draft. However the single most important player to what the Cowboys do quietly retired.

Travis Frederick has been the best center in the league since he put on the star in 2013. His ability to seal and reach while keeping the best offensive line going in that time has been remarkable. When he missed 2018 with Guillain-Barre syndrome it was devastating. They allowed 56 sacks after allowing just 32, 25 and 32 the previous three seasons and just 23 sacks allowed last year.

The sideshow of Dak wanting more than $45 million a year is not helping either. Mix that with Tyron Smith’s lingering back issues, getting adjusted to a new coach/system for the first time in a decade and a severely underwhelming secondary and this is easily my best bet of the 2020 NFL win totals.

Baltimore Ravens UNDER 11.5 Wins

Regression is coming for both Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Besides the unsustainable touchdown luck for Jackson, the fact that he never missed a snap due to injury despite running more than any quarterback ever and that the offensive scheme was fresh, history is not on Baltimore’s side.

Since 2000, only three teams not quarterbacked by Peyton Manning or Tom Brady nor coached by Andy Reid have won twelve games in back-to-back seasons. It’s only happened once in the past six seasons. That was New Orleans last year. Will there by back-to-back outliers to a trend? I’m thinking not.

New England Patriots OVER 9 Wins

My argument for LeBron James over Michael Jordan and Peyton Manning over Tom Brady has always been simple: what happened to the team after the player was gone? LeBron’s teams fall off a cliff, while the Bulls with Pippen almost made the NBA Finals. The Colts were the worst team in the league when Peyton got hurt while the Patriots went 11-5 without Tom Brady.

This year will be the ultimate test to this theory. And you know what? I’m taking Bill Belichick. With the best defense in the league, an elite offensive line and a stable of young running backs I think whoever ends up starting at quarterback will have an easy job. Toss in the fact that they still play in the true MVP of the Patriots’ dynasty, the AFC East, and I think 10 wins is a lock.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 10.5 Wins

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What are we doing? Do we just assume that Tom Brady will go back in time to 2007? Yes, he will turn the ball over exponentially less than Jameis Winston. But you know what he will not do? Drop 60-yard bombs to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin like Jameis.

Evans/Godwin are not exactly pristine route runners. Their games are built on physicality, speed and taking it over the top. Brady is used to timing routes and quickness. Gronk is a different story because his physicality takes place at a much shorter average depth against worse cover guys and don’t expect him to be back to form after a year off either.

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 9.5 Wins

The Steelers won nine games last season while having the worst quarterback play in the league. By far. If Ben Roethlisberger is back to even 80% of his old self he will be able to utilize Juju Smith-Schuster’s skill-set as well as bring along their solid group of young, talented receivers.

The Pittsburgh defense is also an elite unit. They get to play the state of Ohio four times as well as the regression-guaranteed Ravens twice. With the NFC East as their inter-conference slate, the Steelers’ schedule sets up nicely for 10-11 wins.

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 9.5 Wins

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Only the Buccaneers had a bigger gap between their 2019 win total and the 2020 NFL win totals of teams that won at least five games. So is Philip Rivers really worth three more wins than Jacoby Brissett? If you check out my streaming quarterbacks research, you can see that they were ironically similar last season. I would argue Rivers had much better weapons too.

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Jonathan Taylor is already one of the most over-rated players in Fantasy this year. People are just forgetting about Marlon Mack. Nevertheless, they draw the deceivingly tough NFC North and I just can’t see them cracking 10 wins with an over-the-hill quarterback and sub-par defense.

That’s it for my 2020 NFL win totals best bets. Stat tuned as we are about to really dive into the Fantasy Football season!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog,, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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