Daily Fantasy Sports

2020 ThriveFantasy NFL Week 1 Prop Bets Picks: All Stake No Sizzle

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I am very excited to be back again and giving you my 2020 ThriveFantasy NFL Week 1 Prop Bets Picks! You know why? Because it means the NFL is back and starting as planned.

Perhaps “home field advantage” is less of an advantage this year, but it’s not going to influence my Week 1 picks.

Last year I test drove ThriveFantasy and it tells you something that I’m back on the lot ready to buy again. In case you were not with us last year, I’ll tell you a little more about them.

Similar to a regular DFS game, the entry with the most points wins a large percentage of the pot. The dollar amounts continue to descend with only a minority of the entries winning. For example, I am starting small and playing a $2 game this weekend. Of the 88 entries, first place will win $30, second place $20, and so forth until the 21st entry will only double their money. All other entries 22nd and lower will not cash.

What makes ThriveFantasy different is that you are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

You’ll notice I mentioned that I am starting small this week. I was asked by numerous folks how “big” I go during Week 1 of the NFL season. The answer is I don’t. I’m in this for the season, not just one week. I need to make sure my stake lasts.

Week 1 often sees tons of actions on the DFS sites. You have all the people who missed gambling on football. That is blended with those trying to “win big” Week 1 so they can play with house money for the rest of the season. They blow their entire stake on Week 1. I won’t. I don’t care if my stake “sizzles” to start the year, I want to be able to enjoy it the entire meal!

Which I did last year, more than doubling my original stake by the time the season ended on ThriveFantasy. Here’s hoping I can do it again, so let’s get started – here are my picks!

2020 ThriveFantasy NFL Week 1 Prop Bets Picks


So while we are talking about “stake”, let’s start with a player who I think will absolutely feast this weekend.

The Overs

Ezekiel Elliott – 111.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards – 105 points – OVER

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I have zero shares of Elliott in seasonal fantasy football this year (I don’t think I picked earlier than 7th in any of my money leagues this year!) And I do have a couple of Dak Prescott shares. So it pains me to say it, but I think Zeke will run roughshod over the Rams this weekend.

For one, he did last time, and it was late last season. On the back of Elliot’s 117 rushing yards and two TDs, the Cowboys thumped the Rams 44-21. Just for good measure, Elliott also had 43 receiving yards. Do you really see his yardage totals dropping by more than 30 percent?

Furthermore, Elliott hit the threshold or higher nine times last year. Four of those times he failed to hit our 112-yard mark, Elliott only had 12 or 13 carries. Something tells me gets a lot closer to 20 carries this week as opposed to just a dozen.

Finally, ThriveFantasy is giving us an extra five points. I’m not sure why. But I’ll gladly take the extra five points allowing me to be a little more conservative elsewhere.

Lamar Jackson – 1.5 passing touchdowns – 80 points – OVER

Wow, what a difference a year makes! We played this same exact prop last year. Yet when we hit it, we won 120 points as opposed to the 80 we will get this week.

There is some evidence that says we are on the wrong side of this bet. Cleveland has a pretty good secondary for one. Two, conventional wisdom is that Jackon’s TD rate regresses backward this year. But like I’ve said previously, I think the Ravens actually air it out more this year.

Plus, I can’t shake the feeling in my gut that Jackson has at least two passing TDs at home in the opener. After all, he did pretty well in Week 1 last year:

Dalvin Cook – 77.5 rushing yards – 110 points – OVER

This might be the easiest pick on the board. Using our buddy Bob Lung’s PropBet Consistency Tool he doesn’t advocate even caution with taking the over until we hit the 89-yard mark. And he doesn’t even recommend taking the under until we hit 98 yards.

Green Bay gave up 26 fantasy points on average to opposing RBs last year (10th worst in the league) and come into Minnesota as underdogs. Plus we are getting an additional ten points? Maybe it’s too easy. But it’s Week 1 and I’m not overthinking it. You shouldn’t either.

The Under

Of course, there’s the other side of the game when Green Bay has the ball. This brings us to a player I’m going to bet against this week.

Aaron Rodgers – 263.5 passing yards – 105 points – UNDER

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First off, using the tool referenced above, Big Guy Fantasy Sports Consistency Tool says we should hit the under starting at 255 yards.

Secondly, you know how many times in 2019 Rodgers failed to hit 264 yards passing? 11 times. That’s nearly three-fourths of all his games. And guess what, that includes two against Minnesota where he passed for a whopping 216 and 209 yards respectively.

Perhaps you don’t care about your stake. But I do and that’s why this 2020 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy under pick is going to help put me over the top!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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