Fantasy Basketball

2021-22 Fantasy Basketball: Terry Rozier


Terry Rozier finished last season ranked within the top-40 in terms of Fantasy Basketball per-game value. This made Fantasy managers feel safe taking him in the middle rounds of their 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball drafts this season.

His marks of 20 points per game, 45% from the field, and 1.3 steals didn’t seem too good to be true, so why are we seeing such a drop in production?

This season, he’s averaging 15.9 points per game while shooting 40% from the field. If extrapolated to an entire season, they represent his worst numbers since his final year in Boston with the Celtics back during the 2018-19 NBA season.

The Charlotte Hornets are 11-8 to start the year and are led by LaMelo Ball and the emergence of Miles Bridges.

The last time Rozier took the court, he scored a season-high 32 points. Has he found his stroke? He knocked down eight 3-pointers including the game-winner!

2021-22 Fantasy Basketball: Terry Rozier

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Does Terry Rozier’s shot chart provide answers?

Looking at his shot chart, which compares 2020-21 (left) and 2021-22 (right), we can see that Rozier’s main improvement is between 15 and 19 feet, where he is taking significantly more shots without an assist than the year before.

One of the most notable changes for Rozier from 2019-20 to 2020-21 was his increased two-point field goal efficiency, which went from 43.6% to 51.2%. From two-point range, he tended to score without being assisted in 2019-20.

A general trend we can see through this chart is that he tends to shoot better from three when assisted, and the opposite is true for two-pointers.

Why are these changes happening?

It’s hard to say why exactly he’s changing his game this way, especially considering that the departures of Devonte’ Graham and Malik Monk would probably allow Terry Rozier more space in the offense to get the shots he prefers.

Important to note here is the incredible play of Miles Bridges thus far this season. He’s jumped from 12.7 points per game to 20.8, likely soaking up much of Graham and Monk’s usage and opportunities.

What do we do with this information?

Have faith in Scary Terry. It’s natural for shooters like Rozier to go through slumps. The bright side is that he’s been shooting way better over the past six games, averaging 18.2 points per game on 48.3% from the field.

In all likelihood, you either drafted Rozier in the sixth or seventh round or traded scraps for him. Hold strong, knowing that this new-look Hornets offense is looking like it’ll be dangerous against even the best teams in the league.

Check out more Fantasy Basketball content and know that we’re providing strong advice. My articles on Gary Trent Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. are looking particularly clairvoyant these days.

About Michael Gorman

One of the most trusted basketball experts in the Colorado Springs-Manitou Springs area, Michael Gorman is a seasoned fantasy basketball writer.

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