Before we get into the 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 10 Drop List, let's take a look back at last week's article to see what we got right and where we went wrong.
So first things first. Devonte Graham and Harrison Barnes both had a major bounce-back week. At the time of last week's article, Barnes had posted negative value in every category according to the player-rater 15, which tracks a player's contribution of the past 15 days. After this week Barnes is posting positive value in every category except for field goal percentage and blocks. While he isn't quite back to levels he was at during the first few weeks of the season he appears to have gotten himself out of his slump.
Graham also had a bounce-back week and made a ton of three-pointers. He posted a value of 2.97 in the three-pointers made category according to the player-rater 15. Graham was also making major contributions in the points scored and assist categories. He is a streaky player, but currently, he is producing enough in his good categories to make up for his not-so-good categories.
Bledsoe and Theis both made minor improvements last week, but they still aren't in a spot where they are roster-able assets to your team. Chris Boucher on the other hand was receiving minutes in the mid-twenties to low thirties last week and did the most with his minutes. All of his counting stats went up accordingly with his increase in minutes, making him a good contributor for both blocks and rebounds. Whether he continues to get this steady dose of minutes or not is yet to be seen.
Looking Back at Last Week
Last week rostered in 54.9% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -0.02
This week rostered in 55.8% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 0.47
Last week rostered in 71.9% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -0.71
This week rostered in 76.4% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 4.07
Last week rostered in 85% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -4.51
This week rostered in 86.6% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 3.6
Last week rostered in 55.3% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -1.87
This week rostered in 56.1% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 2.97
Last week rostered in 37.3% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -3.84
This week rostered in 38.1% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -1.08
2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 10 Drop List
Dennis Schroder, PG, Boston Celtics (Rostered 76.6% ESPN)
Player-Rater 15: -1.16
Dennis Schroder hasn't been great the past couple of weeks. He missed a couple of games and when he came back he played poorly. Schroder wasn't playing particularly well before he missed the games either.
According to the player-rater 15 Schroder is providing your team with negative value. Not only that but he is providing negative value in five of the eight categories that ESPN uses for their standard category leagues. You don't want to roster him the way he is currently playing. Let him prove he can bounce back and be a consistent contributor to your team.
Payton Pritchard’s strong recent play has added another layer to the Celtics’ Dennis Schroder situation. My story on what is shaping up as a significant trade deadline storyline: https://t.co/kLKWOB0N7e
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) December 22, 2021
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG, New Orleans Pelicans (67.8)
Player-Rater 15: 0.65
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is splitting his positive and negative value categories down the middle. Four are providing positive value and four negative value. The issue with fitting him into your team is that he is providing negative value in both field goal percentage and free throw percentage.
Usually, players are good at one and bad at the other. When you have a player that is bad at both it can be really difficult to find a roster construction that can fit that player. It is even tougher when their negative contribution is significant. For Alexander-Walker, according to the player-rater 15, he provided -0.96 points of value in field goal percentage and -1.65 points of value in free throw percentage. Those are numbers that can be the difference between your team winning and losing the category on any given week.
With him tanking those two categories for your team and having two others where he is providing negative value it is just really hard to justify having him on your team. He should not be owned in almost 68% percent of leagues.
Lauri Markkanen, PF/SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (43.8)
Player-Rater 15: -1.09
Lauri Markkanen is a cross between Schroder and Alexander-Walker when looking at him in the terms of fantasy basketball in category leagues. That might not make sense since Schroder and Alexander-Walker are guards and Markkanen is a forward, but he has a similar statistical profile to those two.
First, like Schroder, Markkanen has provided negative value in five of the eight categories according to the player-rater 15. Second, two of the categories that Markkanen provided negative value in were field goal percentage and free throw percentage.
While his percentages aren't terrible enough to sink the whole category for your team by himself, he doesn't really provide anything to your team. Even in the categories when he is providing positive value according to the player-rater 15 there isn't a single category where he has provided even 0.75 points of value over the last 15 days. That just isn't a player that you want taking up a roster spot on your team.
Starting points for today's NBA betting research ⬇️
4 NBA player props trending DOWN coming into tonight:
— EdgHouse (@EdgHouse) December 22, 2021
Montrezl Harrell, C/PF, Washington Wizards (92.5)
Player-Rater 15: -1.68
Montrezl Harrell is a rim running center that is rostered in over 90% of leagues on ESPN. For the life of me, I can't figure out why. While he does provide good numbers for your field goal percentage category that is about it for him, which isn't typical for his type of player. Normally the rim running centers are great providers for rebounds and blocks as well. Yet with Harrell you are getting minimal rebound production and he actually is providing negative value in the blocks category.
He still has the negative usually associated with his archetype of player, which is that they normally tank your free throw percentage category. Harrell is terrible there, according to the player-rater 15 Harrell provided -2.22 points of value for free throw percentage. That is enough to lose the category by itself some weeks.
He has four categories providing positive value while having four providing negative value. One of those has the potential to single-handedly lose the category for you. To me, that isn't a player that I would like to have to build my team around given his minimal positive contributions so if I had him on my team I would look to move him so that he can be someone else's headache.
Steven Adams, C, Memphis Grizzlies (40.2)
Player-Rater 15: 2.14
Steven Adams is unlike a lot of the players that make their way onto the weekly drop list. He is a productive player that contributes across a number of categories. As you can see, he provided some real positive value over the last two weeks. So why is he on this week's list then?
Well, it all comes down to one category for him. Free throw percentage. According to the player-rater 15, Steven Adams provided -3.57 points of value in that category. So what does that mean exactly, well it means that he only fits into one type of roster construction. That would be a team that is built around punting the free throw percentage category. Basically with Adams either you are punting free throws and he is going to be a great addition to your team or you aren't and he is really going to set you back there and make it extremely hard to win that category any given week.
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