2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 4 Drop List

by Logan Sharp
2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 4 Drop List

Before we kick off the 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 4 Drop List let's take a look back at the 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 3 Drop List to see what we got right and where we went wrong.

Based on how things played out last week the list isn't looking too great. There were a couple of things that contributed to that.

For starters, we had two Spurs frontcourt players on the list and Jakob Poeltl was out because he was in the league's health and safety protocols. I don't see Young or Johnson keeping up their production in reduced minutes once Poeltl comes back.

Zubac and Bledsoe on the other hand both made up most of their value in one category each. Bledsoe has continued to but up around two steals a game, while Zubac played over 30 minutes for three games in a row and put up more blocks than he normally does. With Serge Ibaka working his way back now I don't see Zubac maintaining those minutes or the blocks.

Of course, there will be weeks where injuries happen and the players behind them step up or where players had a couple of good games in a row. I don't really see sustainable value in any of these guys right now though.

Looking Back at Last Week

Eric Bledsoe

Last week rostered 60.5% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 1.44

This week rostered 56.4% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 2.23

Andrew Wiggins

Last week rostered 89.7% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 2.28

This week rostered 86.9% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 2.17

Keldon Johnson

Last week rostered 63.5% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 0.28

This week rostered 63.9% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 1.10

Thaddeus Young

Last week rostered 42.9% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of -3.44

This week rostered 50.6% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 3.09

Ivica Zubac

Last week rostered 53.9% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of -2.04

This week rostered 56.8% ESPN with a Player Rater 15 of 2.99

2021-21 Fantasy Basketball Week 4 Drop List

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Marcus Smart, SG/PG, Boston Celtics, Roster% 67.2% (ESPN)

Player Rater 15: -0.86

Smart has always been a defensive stopper, but this year his offensive production has plummeted. He is under 30% from three and is pretty close to 30% from the field as well. His free throw percentage has also dropped from 79% last year to 70% so far this year. This means that rostering Smart will tank both of your efficiency categories. Plus his assists are down from the last couple of years. While he is still giving you a small positive impact in your assist category it is now barely above replacement level. The same is true for his 3 point production it is barely above replacement level.

Speaking of replacement level, Smart is producing below replacement level in the rebounds, points and blocks categories. So what is left? Well, steals is where smart has produced almost all of his value this year. So far Smart is getting 2.2 steals per game. The problem is that his career-high in steals is 1.8 per game and he has already started to come back down to earth in the last week in that category.

This means that Smart is most likely only going to have one category that he produces significantly above replacement level and he isn't going to be blowing the competition out of the water in that category either. That mixed in with him producing below replacement level in five categories currently means that you should be looking to get Smart off of your team.

Jalen Suggs, PG/SG, Orlando Magic, Roster% 68.8% (ESPN)

Player Rater 15: 0.62

Suggs was seen as the clear-cut top-four player in last year's NBA draft by just about everybody. That is everybody except for the Toronto Raptors, who took Scottie Barnes ahead of Suggs. Through the early going of their rookie years, the Raptors have been proven right so far. It's not that Suggs has been terrible. He is producing slightly above replacement level in five of the eight categories that standard ESPN category league use. In two of the categories that he is producing below replacement level, it is only slightly so he really isn't hurting your team too bad there.

The issue with Suggs is the issue that many rookies, especially guards, face in the NBA. Its efficiency. Right now Suggs is producing a score of -2.41 in ESPN's Player Rater 15. That is a massive negative to your team.

Another thing to look at is that Markelle Fultz hasn't even played for the Magic yet this year. Once he comes back from injury he figures to cut into some of Suggs production. This isn't to say that I hate Suggs as a player, I actually think he will most likely end up having a better NBA career than fellow rookie guard Jalen Green, but his rookie year isn't the year to bank on him putting it together and producing for your Fantasy team.

Saddiq Bey, SF, Detroit Pistons, Roster% 56.6% (ESPN)

Player Rater 15: -1.07

If you just look at Bey's raw numbers he looks pretty good. Bey provides above replacement level in PTS, 3PM, REB, and STL. He also isn't the worst at providing value in the AST column for a small forward. He doesn't really give you any BLK production but that isn't the end of the world.

What is the end of the world though is Bey's efficiency. On ESPN's Player Rater 15 Bey is producing a score of -1.84 for FG% and -1.53 for FT%. Both of those numbers are terrible. They can sink your efficiency categories and make it difficult to compete in those categories. His production in his other categories just isn't enough to offset this. You are better off looking for a player that maybe doesn't have quite the same volume, but doesn't sink your chances in efficiency.

Michael Porter Jr, SF/PF, Denver Nuggets, Roster% 88.2% (ESPN)

Player Rater 15: -2.28

Like in last week's article we had a player that is rostered in almost 90% of leagues on ESPN. Last week it was Andrew Wiggins and this week its Michael Porter Jr.. With Wiggins, my issue was that he was slightly above average at everything but he didn't give you the punch in any given category to really be a difference-maker on your team. With Michael Porter Jr we saw that he does have the potential to be a major difference-maker. People were projecting him to be an All-Star this year, so why the quick turn to not even wanting to roster him.

Well, it's the same reason that he fell in his actual NBA draft. His back. Back injuries suck, especially for big guys and Michael Porter is 6'10. He just injured his back again and is looking at missing some time. But even before he got injured this year he was slumping hard. He was producing below replacement level in FG%, FT%, 3PM, AST and BLKs. Porter Jr. was also right at replacement level for PTS. That just leaves REB and STL for him to produce value for your team. While he is a good rebounder he isn't that good.

I imagine that Michael Porter Jr will probably break out of his slump when he gets back to playing,  but there is no telling when exactly that will be. Also as Denver Nuggets fans know injuries can turn a shooting slump into the new norm for the player, as it did with Gary Harris. I hope that isn't the case for Porter Jr., but I don't think I'm willing to bet on it.

If you have an IR spot available I would place Porter there or try to trade him. It goes without saying that clearly some people are still high on Michael Porter Jr. (he is rostered in over 88% of leagues on ESPN) so if you can trade him I would do it as soon as possible, but if you can't, I would move off of him. As much as it hurts to let go of a player that has as much potential as he does with the slump he started in and the injury concern he just isn't a player that I would want to roster at the moment.

Daniel Theis, C/PF, Houston Rockets, Roster% 40.7% (ESPN)

Player Rater 15: -0.07

So with Daniel Theis, we have a veteran center that is rostered in just over 40% of leagues on ESPN. The issue that I have with Theis is that he is basically just a replacement-level player. He is a guy that you can pick up and roster if he is on a four-game week or a guy you can pick up and use as a matchup acquisition if you need a little boost to your counting stats without hurting your efficiency.

He just isn't someone that you should be rostering full time unless you are in a deep league. Theis doesn't have any category that stands out one way or the other. He has four categories where he is just below replacement level and four categories where he is just above replacement level. So he isn't sinking you in any category, but he also isn't making any meaningful positive impact on your team either.

Right now, Theis is playing just over 23 minutes per game, but the Rockets are a rebuilding team and have a few young bigs that are in need of minutes. Not to mention, the Rockets' current best player, Christian Wood, is their starting center so Theis is competing with him for minutes as well. As the season goes on I see Theis' minutes decreasing, unless the Rockets are ravaged by injuries, meaning that his counting stats will decrease leaving min as a slightly below replacement levels player across all categories.


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