Before we kick off the 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 5 Drop List let’s take a look back at the 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 4 Drop List to see what we got right and where we went wrong.
This past week I think we more or less got most things right. The main spot where I may have been mistaken was assuming that Marcus Smart won't have a career year in the steals category. He put up three, three, five and two steals in the last four games that he has played and is averaging 2.5 per game on the year.
Even so Smart still really only contributes in the STL and AST category and gives back some value in the FG% and FT% categories. That being said if you are light on STLs and ASTs and smart is available he can give you a major bump there.
For Theis it was FG%. His player rater 15 score in the category was 1.74 which made up basically all of his total score of 1.74. He was basically replacement level in every other category.
For Bey he flipped the script on his poor FT%. At this time last week his player rater 15 FT% score was -1.53 and this week it was positive at 0.58. While that isn't great it isn't the negative that it was. If his FG% can make a similar improvement Bey could become a sneaky good fantasy player in category and roto leagues.
With Jalen Suggs and Michael Porter Jr, it was more of the same. Suggs continued to struggle in both of the efficiency categories without making up for it elsewhere. MPJ on the other hand still hasn't come back from his injury so we still haven't seen anything from him, so unless you have an available IR spot to stick him in you are just losing value carrying him.
Looking Back at Last Week
Last week rostered in 67.2% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -0.86
This week rostered in 70.2% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 4.25
Last week rostered in 68.8% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 0.62
This week rostered in 62.8% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -2.81
Last week rostered in 56.6% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -1.07
This week rostered in 58.0% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 1.34
Michael Porter Jr.
Last week rostered in 88.2% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -2.28
This week rostered in 83.7% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -4.65
Last week rostered in 40.7% ESPN with a player rater 15 of -0.07
This week rostered in 40.9% ESPN with a player rater 15 of 1.76
2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 5 Drop List
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Kevin Porter Jr, SG/PG, Houston Rockets, Roster% 59.5 (ESPN)
Player Rater 15: 0.76
Kevin Porter Jr kicks off this week's list with the first of three very similar players. They are similar in the fact that all three of them hurt both your FG% and your FT% from a perimeter position. Now there are some good fantasy guards who are below average from the field. But they normally make up for it from the line. Well, not these guys and that's the problem.
There is some good that comes with Kevin Porter Jr. He is providing a bunch of ASTs and STLs. With player rater 15 scores of 1.96 and 1.37 respectively in those two categories. He is also giving you some good production in PTS at 0.86 as the player rater 15 for that category. with PG eligibility he also gives you a good amount of REBs and BLKs.
The issue is that the FG% and FT% are just so bad. over the last two weeks he has put up a player rater 15 score of -2.67 for FG% and -2.15 for FT%. Those are unacceptably bad numbers. They can sink your chances to win either of those categories on any given week. Until Kevin Porter Jr can get his efficiency numbers under control he isn't worth rostering in category and roto leagues.
Tim Hardaway Jr, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks, Roster% 65.7 (ESPN)
Player Rater 15: 1.57
Tim Hardaway Jr is the second of our inefficient chucker's. He is providing negative value in both FG% and FT%. Hardaway also is basically providing no STLs or BLKs.
Hardaway only has two categories where he is making a real positive influence on your team. Those categories are 3PM and PTS. That isn't great because those are probably the two easiest categories to fill.
Granted STLs and BLKs are two of the more difficult categories to fill out on your team there are better options available to get PTS and 3PM. Most 3 point shooting specialist are gonna be able to do an admirable job filling in the points that Hardaway is scoring. They can also do it without hurting you FT%.
RJ Barrett, SF/SG, New York Knicks, Roster% 81.1 (ESPN)
Player Rater 15: -1.07
RJ Barrett is the last of our 3 inefficient chucker's who are on the list this week. Like Kevin Porter Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr., Barrett is really hurting your team in the FG% and FT% categories. To make matters worse he also is providing less than replacement value in both STLs and BLKs as well.
RJ is putting up good counting stats in 3PM, REB, and PTS but it just isn't enough to offset what he is giving up.
Joe Ingles, SF/SG/PF, Utah Jazz, Roster% 50.4 (ESPN)
Player Rater 15: -1.51
With Joe Ingles with have the first player making a repeat appearance on the list. Joe was on the first list that I made this season in the 2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Week 2 Drop List. At that point, there weren't enough games for there to be a difference between the basic player rater and the player rater 15. During week 2 Ingles was being rostered in 62.1% of leagues on ESPN and he had a player rating of -2.71.
His player rating now isn't as bad as it was then, but I actually think his outlook is even worse now than it was then. Over the last two weeks, Joe Ingles only has two categories where he is above replacement level. Those are 3PM and AST, where he has player rater 15 scores of 0.43 and 0.85 respectively.
Neither of those are great numbers. But those are his only positive categories. For the past few seasons, Ingles was consistently above average in most categories and had great positional flexibility. Unfortunately, the production just isn't there anymore and he shouldn't have a spot on your team.
Mitchell Robinson, C, New York Knicks, Roster% 60.3 (ESPN)
Player Rater 15: 3.39
Mitchell Robinson might look out of place on this list. His Player Rater 15 score is currently at 3.39, which is pretty good. I see Robinson sort of how I see Marcus Smart. They both have one category where they are providing a ton of value and they have another category where they are above average. Then they each have a couple of categories where they are well below average and hurt your team. For Robinson the category that he provides his most value is BLKs and then he provides some good value in FG% as well. He then gives up some value in FT%, 3PM and STLs.
He didn't always have this trajectory though. In his first two years in the league, on a per-minute basis, Robinson was a pretty decent rebounder and then last year in year three he finally got the minutes and was putting up some great rebounding numbers. He also was getting a good amount of steals last year, that is until he got injured and missed the rest of the season.
This year he has gone from a good source of rebounds and steals to just being average at grabbing rebounds and having nonexistent steal numbers. With Nerlens Noel back in the mix for the Knicks, I don't know how I see the minutes being split between those two so I'm not sure how consistent most of Robinsons counting stats will be. That combined with the holes in his game, lack of 3PM and STLs with a bad FT%, makes me want to look in another direction to fill out some of the last spots on my team.
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