2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch Part 1

by Kyle Vaughan
2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch Part 1

Welcome to the 2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch Part 1.

Every week we’ll provide an overview of some players whose stock is trending up or down. For the players whose stock has risen, I’m hoping there is a possibility they are available to you on the waiver wire. Accordingly, I will identify players who are at, or below, 50 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues.

For the players whose stock has fallen, I’ll pay less attention to ownership as it's likely they are rostered and you may be wondering if you should drop or trade them.

Don’t forget to check out Justin's invaluable Unsustainable Players articles or any of the other great Fantasy Hockey content at Fantasy Six Pack.

This is an odd few weeks due to the Olympic/All-Star break. Because this article identifies trends in a player's performance, I won't focus on the number of games played for each player outlined below. So if you do intend on adding some players outlined herein, just make sure you check when their team returns to action. Some teams play on February 7th, while others don't play until the 10th or later.

We got no food. We got no jobs. Our pet's heads are falling off! But we've got the 2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch article. So just calm down.

All statistics from DobberHockey unless otherwise stated. This article does not include Thursday night's games. 

2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch Part 1

Stock Up

Matt Murray, G, Ottawa Senators (14% rostered)

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Listen, I get it. I can hear your collective eye rolls from here. If we know anything about Matt Murray, it's that the good times never last. When he is on his game, he can be the backbone of a Stanley Cup contender. When he's off his game, he's a borderline AHL goalie. Most of this year, he's been the latter.

As a whole in 2021-22, his numbers aren't good. Murray has four wins in 13 games with a .910 save percentage and a quality start percentage of 53.8% (ranking him 21st among goalies who have played a minimum of ten games).

In his last six games, though, Murray has been not bad (with moments of greatness mixed in). In four of those games (all wins) he's posted a save percentage above .930 and a positive goals-saved-above-average (GSAA). That includes a shutout and a GSAA of 2.85 against the Sabres on January 25th.

I'm not saying pick up Murray and ride him all year. What I am saying is Murray is a viable streaming option again. He's played well against the Hurricanes, Flames, and Oilers as of late. Don't be afraid to start him in games against the Devils, Bruins, or Canadians in the coming days and weeks.

Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues (23% rostered)

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Robert Thomas is someone that should probably be rostered more than he is. He's on a 71 point pace, centering a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jordan Kyrou. The Blues are currently seventh in goals-for in the league, and they have the second-best powerplay percentage.

Thomas is the second-line center and gets ample powerplay time. Most of it coming on the second unit these days. But he's routinely on the ice for nearly half (and sometimes more) of the Blue's man advantage.

Thomas has ten points in his last 13 games and 32 total on the season (37 games). Most of his points are assists, which would be a bad sign if he had a high secondary assist rate. But he doesn't. Only seven of his points have come off secondary assists.

While he only has five goals, his shooting percentage this year is actually below his career average. Thomas could be due for some positive regression in that department.

He is somewhat one-dimensional as a fantasy asset and won't provide much coverage on peripheral categories. Thomas is still someone that should be on your squad if he's available, though.

Anton Lundell, C, Florida Panthers (28% rostered)

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How 'bout these Panthers? When was the last time you saw a team this good? Yowza. This little write-up could be about any number of Panthers. Mason Marchment, for example. But I'll focus on his linemate, Anton Lundell.

The 20-year-old Finn is playing in his first NHL season and he's been a force. He has 32 points in 43 games and is coming off a five-assist night against the Blue Jackets. Lundell had a cold spell from November 13 - 30 where he failed to record a point in eight straight games. Since that time he's scored 25 points in 25 games for a dominant Florida team.

He's averaging over 16 minutes a night and is centering the second unit powerplay. Lundell provides minimal peripheral stat coverage in the form of shots and blocks, but his strength is consistently producing points. He's a great streamer option with the potential to stay on your squad for the entire season.

 

Brandon Hagel, LW, Chicago Blackhawks (5% rostered)

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I decided to do four risers this week and only one faller. Don't hold it against me.

Brandon Hagel has been great as of late. He has eight points, 19 shots, and nine hits in his last nine games. In that span, his lowest ice-time is 18:03 and his highest is 23:25. Hagel has been a consistent linemate of Patrick Kane and Dylan Strome, and it's working. In their last three games, the line has posted a shots-for percentage of 71.9%.

As of January 31st, he finds himself on the top powerplay unit as well. Hagel skated 2:49 and was on the ice for 89% of the Blackhawks man advantage against Vancouver.

Admittedly, it's not going to last. Hagel is shooting nearly 20 percent this year compared to a career average of around 13 percent. But it's important to take advantage of players who are on hot streaks when you can. Keep an eye on Hagel moving forward.

Stock Down

Semyon Varlamov, G, New York Islanders (72% rostered)

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I think it's safe to say that Semyon Varlamov has been a disappointment for fantasy owners this year. Varlamov went 60th overall in my main league. One pick after Juuse Saros and ahead of Jack Campbell, Jacob Markstrom, and Cam Talbot.

As a reward, he's won three games in 14 outings with a .916 save percentage and a quality start percentage of 50. Outside of the wins, those numbers aren't awful. They land Varlamov in the middle of the pack amongst goalies who have started at least ten games.

The issue is that Ilya Sorokin has been better. Sorokin has eight wins in 13 games, with a .924 save percentage and a quality start percentage of 65.4. He has four shutouts on the year compared to Varlamov's zero. Sorokin has also won six of his last seven starts.

It shouldn't be surprising that the Islanders are choosing to play the younger, better goalie over the older, worse one. Varlamov's name has started to appear in trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Outside of a Sorokin injury, it's hard to imagine a world where Varlamov takes over the crease on Long Island and keeps it. His stock is on the decline.


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1 comment

2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Unsustainable Players - Fantasy Six Pack February 10, 2022 - 9:31 pm

[…] you are looking for further add/drop guidance, make sure to check out Kyle’s stock watch or Tyler’s Waiver Wire […]

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