2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Stock Watch

by Kyle Vaughan
2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Stock Watch.

Every Friday we’ll provide an overview of some players whose stock is trending up or down. For the players whose stock has risen, I’m hoping there is a possibility they are available to you on the waiver wire. Accordingly, I will identify players who are at or below 50 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues.

For the players whose stock has fallen, I’ll pay less attention to ownership as it's likely they are rostered and you may be wondering if you should drop or trade them.

The article's intent is to help inform the valuation of a player based on their performance to date. Some players are worth more today than last week, and for others the opposite is true.

Don’t forget to check out Justin's invaluable Unsustainable Players articles along with all the other great Fantasy Hockey content at Fantasy Six Pack.

Let's dance with the devil in the pale moonlight.

All statistics from Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise stated. View their glossary for more information on the statistics used below.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, this article was submitted earlier than usual. As a result, it does not include statistics from Wednesday or Thursday night’s games.

2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Stock Watch

Stock Up

Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres (55% rostered)

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I’m starting this week by breaking my own stupid rule. Rasmus Dahlin’s ownership is above 50 percent in Yahoo leagues. However, I’ve received several requests from readers to analyze his performance to date. So I'm going to do that.

The 2018 first overall pick had an impressive resume coming into the NHL. I could post some statistics, but instead, I’ll turn your attention to the highlights below. Dahlin is 17 in many of these clips, playing against men.

Dahlin is entering his fourth NHL season this year. So far, the results have been mixed. In his rookie season, he scored 44 points in 82 games and posted impressive puck possession metrics.

Dahlin’s second season started poorly. He continued to put up points, but defensively he regressed. At times, he looked lost on the ice and made questionable decisions resulting in a high turnover rate. He would later miss eight games due to a concussion from an ignorant Erik Cernak elbow.

After returning from the injury, Dahlin regained some of his rookie season form. However, in his third season, he regressed hard. Dahlin scored at a 34 point pace over a full season and struggled defensively. He finished with a career-low CF%, FF%, and a god-awful GF% of 37.18.

This season Dahlin started alongside Will Butcher and things did not go well. He did put up five points in his first 10 games but was embarrassed defensively on more than one occasion. Tomas Hertl and Tyler Bertuzzi each walked Dahlin 1-on-1 in a span of a few days.

Shortly thereafter coach Don Granato moved Dahlin back to his natural left side. He also promoted Mark Pysyk to the right post on Buffalo’s top pair. Check out these numbers:

Dahlin with Butcher vs. Pysyk
Dahlin w/ Butcher (170 mins)Dahlin w/ Pysyk (101 mins)

Hot damn! Turns out Pysyk and Dahlin do good hockey together. The duo has played on the top pair for six games and Dahlin has five points in that span. He is playing over 23 minutes a night, including 26 minutes in his last two games. He’s also locked in on the first powerplay and offers peripheral stat coverage racking up PIMs, shots, hits, and blocks.

I’m not saying Dahlin is going to finally meet his draft day expectations this year (although we should remind ourselves that he is younger than both Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes).

His shooting percentage is currently 3.1 percent higher than his career average. He also has an inflated secondary assist rate. But since he’s been playing with Pysyk, his stock is irrefutably on the rise. If the pair continues to tilt the ice and produce at their expected goal-for rate, Dahlin should be a viable fantasy option all season long.

Seth Jarvis, C, Carolina Hurricanes (18% rostered)

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Seth Jarvis was drafted 13th overall in the 2020 NHL draft. He made his NHL debut on Halloween and his performance to date has been downright spooky (shut up). He has six points in ten games, including four in his last four games.

Jarvis is logging over 14 minutes a night on the Canes top line alongside Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Aho. He’s also playing 1:43 per game on the second powerplay unit. Top line minutes and powerplay time on the Metropolitan Division-leading Hurricanes should be incentive enough to keep an eye on Jarvis.

I’ll add one more reason: Jarvis is sticking around for a while. He played in his 10th NHL game on Monday, which activated the first year of his entry-level contract. The Hurricanes see Jarvis as a valuable contributor and he should continue to see healthy deployment as a result.

Dawson Mercer, C, New Jersey Devils (13% rostered)

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Jesper Bratt, LW, New Jersey Devils (12% rostered)

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Here we have a tale of two players. One is an 18th overall pick in his first NHL season. The other was a sixth-round selection in 2016 and is playing in his fifth year as an NHL regular.

Dawson Mercer is the former and Jesper Bratt is the latter. Both are on hot streaks, and both have each other to thank. Mercer has scored 12 points in 16 games this year, including seven points in his last six outings. He’s getting second-line minutes and over two minutes a game on the top powerplay unit. Mercer also contributes peripherals stats in the form of PIMs, shots, hits, and blocks.

Bratt has scored 12 points in his last 11 games. He gets second-line minutes and first powerplay minutes alongside Mercer.

The most interesting thing about these players is what they do for the Devils (and each other) when they are on the ice together.

Devils with Mercer and Bratt on-ice vs. off-ice
Devils w/ Mercer and BrattDevils w/o Mercer and Bratt


Andreas Johnsson is the pair’s most common linemate. The numbers continue to increase when all three are together. The Bratt-Mercer and Bratt-Johnsson connection both mimic the numbers outlined above. Mercer and Johnsson without Bratt aren’t nearly as effective. It seems that Bratt is the glue that binds this stellar line.

As long as Mercer and Bratt continue to play together, they are worth your attention. In deeper leagues, Johnsson may be worth your time as well.

Stock Down

Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks (94% rostered)

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Elias Pettersson is off to the worst start of his young career. He has nine points in his first 17 games. That’s the lowest point total at this juncture of any season he’s played in. Maybe more concerning is that only three of those points have come at even strength. Pettersson is also in the midst of a cold streak with one point in his last six games.

The current state of Pettersson’s team certainly isn’t helping. The Canucks are second-last in the Pacific. Only the nascent Seattle Kraken sit lower in the division.

To mix things up, the Canucks shuffled their powerplay units recently. Pettersson and fellow cold streak alumni Brock Boeser were both bumped off the first unit. As far as stock goes, this may be the lowest Pettersson’s has ever been.

Now, some of you may find this hard to believe but I’m not a complete idiot. I don’t expect it to last. Pettersson’s shooting percentage this year is 5.6 percent. That’s well below his career average of 16.1 percent.

JT Miller and Connor Garland have picked up the offensive slack, but neither has the raw skill of Pettersson. He will return to form and take back his rightful spot on the top unit. I’m sure we’ll see him ripping one-timers past bewildered goaltenders soon enough.

However, until Pettersson picks it up his stock will remain down.

Anders Lee, LW, New York Islanders (34% rostered)

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Not all is well in Long Island. The Islanders have lost six straight. Recently, they put seven players on the Covid list, including captain Anders Lee.

To date, Lee has posted four points - all goals - in 12 games.  That puts him on a 27 point pace over a full season. When compared to his career average of 50 points over 82 games, it’s clear Lee is having a down year. It’s difficult (at least for me) to pinpoint why. It might be a compounding effect related to several things.

Although Lee’s shot rate (2.6 shots/game) is in line with his career average, his shooting percentage is down about one percent. His time on ice per game is down at all strengths (about 50 seconds). Additionally, his IPP is below career norms. Those things wouldn’t add up to halving his point production, though.

Nearly all of Lee’s possession and offense generation metrics are at, or near, career lows. Relative to his teammates, however, Lee is playing well. According to Hockey Reference, his CF%rel is 4.0 and his FF%rel is 2.4.

The Islanders are ranked 30th in team CF%, 28th in FF%, 29th in GF%, and 31st in xGF%. Lee’s struggles could be a mix of everything I’ve listed above (and a few I’ve missed) and the fact that he plays on a bad team.

Whatever the reasons are, Lee’s stock is currently trending downward.

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