2021-22 NFL Championship Sunday ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2021-22 NFL Championship Sunday ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

Welcome everybody to the 2021-22 NFL Championship Sunday ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

We are down to the final four in the NFL with the Kansas City Chiefs having the best Super Bowl odds to win Super Bowl LVI. But first, they need to beat the Cincinnati Bengals - something they could not do at the end of the regular season. The Bengals won 34-31 in Week 17 just four weeks ago.

A perfect 6-0 record this past weekend brings us to a 13-3 playoff record overall. It was the ideal way to cap off what was in my opinion, the greatest divisional round in NFL history.

Our selections last week led me to a third-place finish with a $1000 payday! Now we will look to repeat with more of the same during NFL Championship Sunday.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet, here’s what it’s all about. First, unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances each week. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly, you earn those points. The more points you earn, the more money you can win!

2021-22 NFL Championship Sunday ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

AFC Championship

Joe Mixon - 72.5 Rushing Yards - 90 Points - Under

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Taking the under on Mixon last week paid off handsomely and we are coming right back to it here. Mixon has been under this rushing mark in 13 of 18 games this season (72%). This includes seven straight games now where he has hit this under.

Kansas City is middle of the pack against the rush, but they allow the sixth-most passing yards in the league. On top of that, the Chiefs are favored by a full touchdown here. The Bengals will likely need to air it out to have any chance of keeping up.

The sportsbooks have him projected for around 55.5 rushing yards, well under this 72.5 line. This prop was inflated last week and appears to be once again.

Tee Higgins - 65.5 Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Over

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Tee Higgins has had 66 or more receiving yards in just seven of 16 games this year, but this doesn’t tell the full story.

Higgins got off to a bit of a slow start this season. But if you remove his five games from Weeks 1 to 7 where he didn’t hit this over once, he actually hit this number in seven of his final 11 games. Fresh off a 96-yard performance against the Titans, I think Higgins doubles up in the AFC championship and hits this mark once again.

As mentioned in Mixon’s prop, The Bengals will likely need to pass early in often in this game, making this a nice stack with the Mixon pick as the two should be highly correlated.

Joe Burrow - 272.5 Passing Yards - 95 Points - Over

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The last time Joe Burrow played the Chiefs he threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns. Burrow has been on a tear to end the season. He has hit this over in five of his last seven games and has averaged 338 yards per contest during that stretch.

The Bengals are a team that has gotten hot at the perfect time. Of the three Bengals props, this is the one that scares me the most, but I still believe it is the right play. Burrow’s recent performances, along with creating the triple stack with the other two props, it is just too appetizing to pass up.

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Tyreek Hill - 70.5 Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Over

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Tyreek Hill popped off for 11 catches, 150 yards, and a touchdown in an exciting showdown against the Bills last week. This is pretty much par for the course with Hill this season. When he hits, he hits big, but when he doesn’t it is usually a mediocre dud.

Hill’s game-breaking speed is a near-impossible task for any defense to contain. He can hit this over in one play. So, I have little faith in even the best defenses stopping him, let alone Cincinnati’s defense which has allowed the seventh-most passing yards this season.

Hill has hit this over in nine of 19 games this season, just under 50% of the time. But I think when the games are at their most important, that’s when Kansas City and Mahomes use Hill to the fullest, and the games don’t get much bigger than this.

NFC Championship

Brandon Aiyuk - 52.5 Receiving Yards - 110 Points - Under

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While Brandon Aiyuk ended the regular season hot, he had just one target last week for zero receptions and zero yards against the Packers.

Aiyuk has hit this under in nine of 17 games this season since receiving a full complement of snaps in Week 3. In his first game against the Rams, he recorded just 26 yards, but in the second he had his best game of the season with 107. So, it is tough to know what to expect here.

When push comes to shove this is a run-first football team. And the offense is led by Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell. I don’t want to bet on the fourth option against a Rams defense that is very solid against both the run and pass (top six in DVOA against both).

The 49ers will need to control the ball and the clock to win this game, similar to how they did last week. I just don’t see them putting the game in the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo very often, so take the extra 10 points here.

Deebo Samuel - 5.5 Receptions - 95 Points - Under

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I’m going to keep this one short and sweet since it relies on a similar principle to the Aiyuk under that was just discussed: Jimmy G won’t be trusted to throw against this defense often.

The second half of this pick has to do with Deebo’s usage. Deebo has hit this under in 10 of his last 11 games this season. Halfway through the season the 49ers simply decided to convert Deebo to a running back, I assume to get him touches more easily than at WR.

Deebo is so explosive that he makes big plays regardless of position, but the result has been a dramatic decrease in receptions.

This bet has nothing to do with Deebo’s talent, it is just about how they use him now, so grab the under on this RBs catches.

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