Welcome to 2021-22 NFL DFS Divisional Round Yahoo Picks!
Did you have fun this weekend and bring home some money? Are you back for more? That's great!
Super Wildcard Weekend was not quite as super as we hoped. We got a lot of football, but there were so many blowouts and sloppy games it didn't live up to expectations. For me, it was when I watched the Jurrasic World movies. It had some nostalgia, some big names, and cool moments, but was just kinda "meh".
I saw more than one person on Twitter write that these playoffs were a good reason why we shouldn't have a 7th team. I disagree. Sure, the seventh seeds lost. But what if one had won? We'd have March Madness in January. What if the Chargers and Raiders had actually tied, would we be still be saying these things? I'm sure there's a universe where both these teams make it in and made some noise.
But a fifth and a sixth seed also lost in blowout fashion. A three-seed vastly underperformed compared to expectations. If it's not just the seventh seeds underperforming, where do we draw the line?
Anyway, my rant is done. Let's focus on this week's games.
Saturday features the two #1 seeds, Tennessee and Green Bay, facing off against their opponents, Cincinnati and San Fransisco, respectively. Sunday we have the Rams vs Buccaneers and Bills vs Chiefs. Both Saturday games have an O/U of 47. LA vs Tampa has an O/U of 48.5. KC vs Buffalo tops the slate with an O/U of 54 points.
With this slate, there are a lot of different ways you can succeed. I won't focus on so much the top plays, as everyone knows you should play Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce, and the like as much as you can. I want to give you some cheaper options with upside so you can get to the top plays. Having those cheaper guys produce in such a small slate was important to success last week, and even more so now with fewer players to choose from. Like I said a week ago, don't be afraid to get funky with your lineups. Separate yourself from the pack.
2021-22 NFL DFS Divisional Round Yahoo Picks
Wisdom of the Crowd NFL DFS projections
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow - $34
Some variation of a Burrow and Chase/Higgins/Boyd stack is something I'm going to be doing a lot this weekend. The Titans allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and lack the defensive firepower to stop Burrow's weapons. You also save a considerable amount of money compared to the most expensive player on the slate: Josh Allen at $43. And he's only a little more expensive than Aaron Rodgers, who's good in the regular season against the Niners but terrible against them in the post-season.
Patrick Mahomes - $34
Mahomes went off against Pittsburgh for 38.06 fantasy points. Now he gets to go against Buffalo, who have allowed the fewest points to fantasy QB's all season. And quite frankly? I don't care. He's been on a hot streak, capped off by finishing as the overall QB2 in Wild Card Weekend. The last time these two teams played in week 5 of this season, he finished with a respectable 20.98 fantasy points. Since then, the Bills have remained a formidable opponent but have lost Tre'Davious White, opening things up a little for Mahomes.
Running Backs
Tennessee Titans RB
We don't know yet if Derrick Henry ($38) will start, but if he does you're playing him. Cincinnati's run defense hasn't given up a lot of yards to running backs on the season but has given up the 13th most fantasy points to them. However, they've been showing some cracks in their armor. If Henry is out, D'Onta Foreman ($21) is a cheap alternative I like from a volume perspective.
Devin Singletary - $24
They just keep giving him the ball. Last week he accumulated 16 carries and three receptions to the tune of 94 total yards and two touchdowns. He's now had at least 17 touches each of the past five weeks. Until the Bills decide to stop giving him the ball, we're gonna keep playing him.
Elijah Mitchell - $25
The Packers haven't been friendly to fantasy running backs this season. Neither were the Cowboys but Mitchell still churned out 15 fantasy points against them. It would have been even more if Jimmy Garapollo had not thrown him a desperation pass that lost eleven yards instead of throwing it away. Mitchell struggled with efficiency against Dallas but got 28 carries. With that workload, sign me up regardless.
Wide Receiver
Bengals Wideouts
Tennessee is a friendly matchup for QB's, but they're even friendlier to WR's. So friendly in fact, they allow the second-most points fantasy points per game to wideouts in the NFL this year. The Bengals are going to have to win through the air, as the Titans have the league's best rushing defense (side note: I'm fading Joe Mixon). Ja'Marr Chase will be popular, of course, as Burrow's top option.
But don't forget about Tyler Boyd who's seen at least five targets six straight weeks and caught a touchdown the last four. Tee Higgins is due for a bounce-back week. If the Titans focus on stopping Chase, the Bengals' #2 WR is pretty good at football too. Higgins has flashed a massive ceiling that could very well show up this week.
Tyreek Hill - $23
We're getting Tyreek at a discount still. He's not been himself recently but came back from his heel injury to the tune of five catches for 57 yards and a score last week. He won't be shadowed by one of the top corners in the NFL this time against Buffalo, and we all know he has slate-breaking upside. If the Chiefs are to make it out against the red-hot Bills, they're going to need him.
Julio Jones - $14
Julio is finally back and healthy at the right time for the Titans. In Tennessee's week 18 match against Houston, Jones had five catches on nine targets for 58 yards and a score. We all know what Julio is capable of, and he's cheaper than Cyril Grayson, Alan Lazard, and Gabe Davis.
Isaiah McKenzie - $12
Our last two guys are more of a punt play than anything else. That is not to say they don't have value. McKenzie was only on the field for 34% of the snaps against the Patriots. But in his limited snaps, he turned six touches (three receiving, three rushing) into 74 yards. He had more opportunities and snaps than Cole Beasley, who he filled in for during his massive game against the Patriots in week 16. If the Bills continue using McKenzie in this WR/RB hybrid role, I like his chances to pay off his salary and more.
Jauan Jennings - $11
Jennings is another wideout who's been getting more work of late. He's on the field around ~50% of the 49ers' snaps and has five or more targets in five of his last six games. He's also scored three touchdowns in that time frame. Admittedly, the floor with him is low, but he can pay off big time with a score and some decent yardage.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox - $20
With this game projected as the highest-scoring of the slate, we can expect a lot of passing work from Josh Allen. He's had five or more targets in six of his last nine games. Knox always has touchdown upside, and I like him to keep getting the volume.
Tyler Higbee - $17
Higbee is about as low as I'll go with tight end this week (unless you REALLY want to punt with Anthony Firkser). The good news is he's been super consistent. He's only had four games under six .5ppr fantasy points all year. Now, that's not exactly the ceiling we hoped for at the beginning of the year after Gerald Everett left. However, you know with Higbee you're getting a decent floor with two touchdown upside.
Defense
Green Bay Packers - $11
The 49ers are playing very well as of late. They took down the Rams to get into the playoffs and beat the Cowboys to face the Packers. However, their quarterback is hurting. Not only did Jimmy Garapollo hurt his thumb several weeks ago, he now has a shoulder sprain in his throwing arm. The Packers' defense will most likely face an injured QB this weekend. That or go against a rookie in his third career start that also happens to be a playoff game. They also might be getting several starters back this week, which will be a huge boost to their defense.
That will do it for our 2021-22 NFL DFS Divisional Round Yahoo Picks. These games should be a lot of fun, a rematch of Bills and Chiefs, the Rams facing the defending champs, and more. Play around with those lineups, watch the scores, have fun!
Wisdom of the Crowd NFL DFS projections
