Alas, we have come to the end of the regular season. Kyle will be back next week to start the playoffs, but like a lot of teams limiting their starters, Kyle is off this week. That means you get me for the 2021-22 NFL DFS Week 18 DraftKings Picks!
I’m not sure he could have picked a worse week for me to cover for him either. My favorite DFS plays this week are not on the main slate. And while recent weeks have opened up some value, that has not happened as of submission. But many of you are familiar with me and know I’ve been doing this a while; I will find a way to survive.
Speaking of surviving, one of the first things I look for when playing the final week is whose playoff chances are still alive? Who is locked in? But I don’t limit that to just teams. For example, what players have various incentives that will kick in depending on certain performances?
Therefore, I often let those be my guide as you will see below. It also depends on whether or not you are playing a GPP or a cash game. Of course some studs I will find a way to force into either type of entry.
So who are some of those studs? Let’s get to it.
2021-22 NFL DFS Week 18 DraftKings Picks
Click here for Wisdom of the Crowd NFL DFS projections
2021-22 NFL DFS Week 18 DraftKings Picks: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady $7500
The Buccaneers have already clinched their division, but their seed could fluctuate anywhere from No. 2 to No. 4. In addition to team goals, Brady has a number of personal incentives that could net him more than a million in bonuses, including finishing in the top five in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. Bottom line, Brady won’t be sitting this one out or taking an early seat.
In addition to heaps of motivation, Tommy Terrific has been just that. He’s fantasy football’s No. 2 quarterback right now (Josh Allen is No. 1, depending on scoring), thanks mostly to his 40 touchdown passes and being just shy of 5,000 passing yards. Newsflash, Brady is a good play this week.
Josh Allen, $8100
I prefer Brady to Allen for a number of reasons, one of them is because of his $600 lower salary. But if you can fit Allen in, he brings a very high floor. He’s averaging more DFFP per game than any other quarterback. Furthermore, Buffalo is fighting for seeding, so I expect Allen to play much of this game.
Fortunately, Allen also has a match-up to make this easier. The Jets are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The Jets are also giving up the most TDs per game this year.
Davis Mills $5300
Of course, if you’re looking for a guy who has more to play for individually than his team does, Mills is your man. He is also one of the cheaper options on the board and should be low-owned.
He will be facing the Titans who are already in the playoffs. That’s despite having one of the most questionable secondaries of any playoff team. But I would rather spend another $100 however and grab…
Taylor Heinicke $5400
Heinicke is not looking at seven-figure incentives like Brady, but his incentives are a much larger proportion of his net worth. Heinicke’s base salary is proportionally small ($1 million this year), but if he helps his team beat the Giants and plays 60 percent of the snaps, he’ll make another $125K. Imagine getting a bonus of one-eighth of your salary!
I am thinking we see a nice game out of Heinicke on Sunday.
2021-22 NFL DFS Week 18 DraftKings Picks: Running Back
Jonathan Taylor $9300
It’s a must-win game for the Colts, and you know Taylor will be fed plenty of carries. Do I think he’s going to get the 266 yards he needs to hit 2K? No. Do I think he can get more than 2 bills, however? Yes.
Jacksonville is not a tough matchup, but this is all about Taylor. He has four straight 100-yard games, including one with 170. He leads the league in nearly every rushing stat. He has more carries of 20-plus yards and more carries of 40-plus yards than anyone else, more than double his next-closest contender for the latter. He has 18 rushing TDs already and I wouldn’t be surprised if he reaches 20 before the playoffs.
JT is expensive, but I’d try to find the salary space for him.
Devin Singletary $6000
Zack who? Singletary is making Moss a forgotten man as Singletary has swallowed up all the carries lately….
Singletary also has four touchdowns over the last three games.
…through Week 14: 8.6 att per game, 42.1 ypg, 2 TD
…since Week 15: 19 att per game, 78.3 ypg, 4 TD
I think they figured out how to help in the red zone. https://t.co/lyK5eMe6XI
— x- Josh Allen Stats (@JoshAllenStats) January 4, 2022
I don’t see the Jets, who have given up the most fantasy points to RBs this season, putting up much resistance. Singletary might even have more upside than anyone but Taylor.
Eli Mitchell $6000
Mitchell is coming off another strong game having rushed for 119 yards and catching a TD as well. And here’s were we can fall back on proven facts. San Francisco has everything to play for as a loss by them and a New Orleans Saints win can knock the 49ers out of the playoffs. We also know Shanahan loves to run the ball.
The Rams might be a tough match-up, but Mitchell is looking like a top pick for next year and has very little tread on his tires this season. You could do a lot worse.
2021-22 NFL DFS Week 18 DraftKings Picks: Wide Receiver
Kupp is a very similar play to Jonathan Taylor. Both are expensive and fitting both of them in your lineup will take major sacrifices. Both are on teams with playoff positioning on the line. Kupp has a slightly tougher matchup than Taylor, but he too is close to a number of personal milestones and I think he’ll get his chances to hit these.
He needs 12 receptions to break the single-season record (149, Michale Thomas) and 136 yards to break that mark (1,964, Calvin Johnson) as well. Kupp has publicly said he thinks 17-game records should be separated from 16-game records.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 4, 2022
And I like him even more for saying so. But I also like him to break both those records this week. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he adds to his league-leading 15 TDs either.
I know it’s not bold, but I’m playing Kupp everywhere I can this week.
Nico Collins $3900
Collins however is a far bolder pick. If you want something safer, maybe go for his teammate Brandin Cooks.
There is not a whole lot worthy of our attention in the DK sub-$4K range, but I won’t have a single lineup without someone in that range, especially if I play both Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp. And Collins might be the sexiest of all the options.
That’s because I’ll take the minority stance that the Titans’ defense struggles with the Houston offense this week. Especially the secondary. Only the Vikings have allowed more fantasy points to WRs this season than the Titans. And yes, I’m sure Brandin Cooks will grab a bigger share of the 40-plus PPR WR points that the Titans are allowing. But even if Collins gives us just 12 to 15 points, which I think he will, that still makes us a nifty profit
Darnell Mooney, $5900
You realize how bad the VIkings secondary is, right? The Vikings have allowed an average of over 42 PPR points to WRs this season, which is the worst in the league.
Mooney is finishing his season strong having hauled in seven passes last week including one for a TD. Expect a similar line this week.
Antoine Wesley $4100
I went to him successfully last week…
BTW, some additional cheap punt plays that I like this week are A Wesley, C Rogers, and C Kmet https://t.co/pzB9bGDKy2
— Mark Strausberg (@MarkStrausberg) January 2, 2022
I might as well go to him again. Will he score a pair of TDs again? Probably not. But Arizona is fighting for seeding and I expect them to pull out of the stops against division rival Seattle. If you are looking for an affordable option, Wesley fits the bill.
2021-22 NFL DFS Week 18 DraftKings Picks: Tight End
Brevin Jordan, $2700
Yup, the Houston onslaught continues. We need to find value and Jordan fulfills that need. I already touched upon my doubts about the Houston secondary. And Jordan is second on the team with three receiving TDs.
— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2021
Jordan has more FPPG than at least a dozen of the other options around him. Of course a bit of a safer option would be….
Rob Gronkowski, $6300
No Antonio Brown? No problem. Expect Tom Brady’s old pal to pick up the slack, as well as drag a defender or two with him into the end zone. Again, we have some personal incentives for him to do so.
Gronk can earn half a million for each of the following: seven more receptions, 85 receiving yards, and three more TDs. Do I see Brady helping him earn another $1.5 million dollars? Maybe, maybe not, but I’d bank on Gronk being at least half a mil richer at the end of the day Sunday than he will be this morning.
Click here for more Fantasy Football content