Welcome everybody to the 2021-22 NFL Divisional Round ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks!
A solid first weekend of playoff football, but moving forward to the divisional round, I expect the games to be much closer.
Last week we went 2-1 in the Saturday slate, 1-2 in the Sunday slate, and 4-0 in the Monday slate for a total record of 7-3.
Once again, Thrive is doing a separate slate for each day this weekend, and I’ve picked three props from each that I believe will help guide your entries to victory!
If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet, here’s what it’s all about. First, unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.
Instead, there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances each week. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.
If you pick the prop correctly, you earn those points. The more points you earn, the more money you can win!
2021-22 NFL Divisional Round ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks
Joe Mixon – 80.5 Rushing Yards – 90 Points – Under
Our first prop of the weekend is Joe Mixon under 80.5 rushing yards. I believe Joe Mixon is a very talented player, but there is a minimal indication he will hit this mark in this game.
First, his recent usage has been less than ideal. He has hit this under in 12 of 17 games this season. But more importantly, he has hit this under in six straight contests, including last week’s wild-card matchup.
In the five games he hit the over, he averaged 24.6 carries, but over the past six matchups, he has averaged just 16.8 carries. They just simply aren’t feeding him the ball as often lately.
Second, they are facing off against the number one seeded Tennessee Titans. The Titans are favored in this matchup, indicating a negative game script for the Bengals. In addition, the Titans are far easier to pass against than to run against. They allow the second-fewest rushing yards compared to the eighth-most passing yards.
The Bengals are going to put this game in Joe Burrow’s hands. That’s what they have done consistently over the past two months, and that’s what the matchup calls for. Unfortunately, that means fewer rushing attempts for Mixon this Saturday.
C.J. Uzomah – 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns – 80 Points – Under
In the first quarter of the wild card round, C.J. Uzomah caught a seven-yard touchdown pass from Joe Burrow this past weekend. I think that will influence a lot of people to bet this over. But don’t fall for it, the stats don’t back it up.
Including this past playoff game, Uzomah has hit this under in 13 of 17 games this season, 76% of the time. His last score before this weekend? It came all the way back in Week 7. In fact, all five of his regular season touchdowns came on a hot streak between Week 4 and Week 7.
The bottom line is, he averaged three receptions per week. Do you really want to rely on C.J. Uzomah turning one of those three into a touchdown?
Aaron Jones – 67.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards – 105 Points – Over
While Aaron Jones certainly disappointed many fantasy owners this year, don’t let that prevent you from grabbing this over.
Jones has hit this over in 10 of 15 games this season. Including three straight games to close the year (would’ve been four if he gained three more yards in Week 14).
The San Francisco 49ers are fairly good against the run,n but Jones is very involved in the passing game, soo he should have enough room to get things done.
Jones has also had a full two weeks off with the bye week plus being rested in Week 18. This is huge as it will help extinguish any lingering effects from the knee injury in Week 10. So expect a full workload for Jones this Saturday.
The sportsbooks have Jones listed at roughly 77 total yards for his over/under, and Thrive is giving us an extra five points to take an over 10 yards lower than that? I’ll take that all day.
Sony Michel – 70.5 Rushing Yards – 90 Points – Under
Sony Michel ripped off a 35-yard run on the Rams’ first play of the game. But the biggest storyline from the Rams’ backfield belongs to Cam Akers.
Just five and a half months after a devastating achilles injury Akers suited up and registered 95 total yards. Simply unbelievable. This completely changes the dynamic of the Rams’ backfield moving forward.
In the seven games where Michel was getting the bulk of the workload this season, he hit this over in five of them. But in the 11 games where he was splitting carries with another back, he failed to hit this over even a single time.
So now that Akers is back, and out carried Michel 17 to 13, you better believe I am hopping on this under.
Furthermore, this game should be far more competitive than last week’s matchup as indicated by the Buccaneers being three-point favorites. Meaning it is doubtful that the Rams will be able to run the ball 38 times like they did against Arizona.
The Buccaneers have also been notoriously difficult to run against. They allowed the third-fewest yards on the ground this season. Michel actually received 20 carries when they faced the Buccaneers way back in Week 3, but he still didn’t hit this over as he went just 20 for 67.
This prop is locked into all my Sunday lineups.
Mike Evans – 62.5 Receiving Yards – 100 Points – Over
Mike Evans recorded nine catches on 10 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Eagles in the wild card round. It could’ve been an even bigger day for Evans, but the Buccaneers were in complete control of the game, so he wasn’t needed down the stretch.
Evans has hit this over in 10 of 17 games this season, but more importantly, he’s one of the only weapons left standing. With Antonio Brown gone, Chris Godwin out, and Leonard Fournette questionable for Sunday, Evans is once again going to function as the unquestioned number one option for the Buccaneers.
This projects to be a tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey, but Evans has the talent to overcome this. He burned the Rams in Week 3 when he caught eight of 10 targets for 106 yards. And he beat an elite corner as the solo number one option just last week when Darius Slay couldn’t stop him.
Evans must come through for the Buccaneers to have a chance to win this game, and I believe he will.
Tyler Johnson – 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns – 70 Points – Under
The fact that Tyler Johnson is an option in Thrive lineups this week shows you just how far the Buccaneers wide receiver options have dropped.
Tyler Johnson has two career touchdowns, zero of which were this year. He hasn’t scored since October of 2020.
I know most of his short career he has been behind big stars like Evans, Godwin, and Brown, and he is definitely in line for more targets with two of those guys out. But I just can’t bet on a guy to score in the biggest game of his life with only two career touchdowns.
I know 70 points isn’t a whole lot. And I do think this will be a pass-heavy game script for the Bucs. So, if you wanted to throw in the over for Brady or Gronk’s props instead of this, I wouldn’t blame you.
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