Welcome to 2021-22 NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Bets - Saturday!
The playoffs are here! Last year the NFL introduced us to the delightful 14 team playoffs, which I think adds a lot more fun. The extra spot to get in creates more excitement and suspense for teams in the hunt. Kind of like the new play-in tournament that the NBA has done the last couple of seasons.
This season we get playoff games for three whole days! Super Wildcard Weekend is here! Before we dive into the prop bets, I want to take a minute and say a winter storm is going all across the east coast of the United States, so it may have impacts on the games. Weather projections change constantly, so be vigilant.
First up we have the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. Cincy won the AFC North and rested most of their starters against the Browns in week 18. The Raiders fought to the very last second in a win-or-go-home game against the Chargers and came away with the win and a playoff spot. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bengals favored by five with an over-under of 48.5. Some snow showers are expected and with temps somewhere in the 30's F.
Our evening game is an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots. DraftKings has the Bills favored by four with an over-under of 44. This game projects to be frigidly cold, with temps at or below zero with wind chill. Thankfully, the wind won't be blowing but 5-10 mph, so it won't affect passes that much. However, the extremely low temperature might.
2021-22 NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Bets - Saturday
Josh Jacobs - 59.5 Rush Yards - Over
The Bengals rushing defense has actually been pretty good, holding opposing rushers to 102.5 yards a game, fifth-best in the NFL. However, Jacobs has turned it on recently, rushing for more than at least 63 yards and over 125 yards twice in his last three games. If the cold temps happen to limit the passing game, you can bet on Jacobs to get extra work. Assuming he can have passable efficiency, he should get over this line either way.
Hunter Renfrow - 55.5 Rec Yards - Under
The mid-season PPR darling of fantasy and DFS players, including yours truly. But the good times quickly came to an end. Saved by touchdowns, as his production is actually very little. Renfrow has managed more than 40 yards in just one of his past four games, including a mere 13 yards last week. Part of the reason is the emergence of Zay Jones. Jones has more receptions than Renfrow has targets over the past month and over a hundred more receiving yards. With Darren Waller back and Zay Jones on the rise, I'm not liking Renfrow's chances for a big game here.
Joe Burrow - 261.5 Pass Yards - Over
While it is supposed to be cold in Cincy, based on everything I'm hearing, it shouldn't affect passing games that much. I know I mention Josh Jacobs could get more work if passing games were limited. That was "if". It may well not be. Burrow had a great game in ~30-degree weather against the Chiefs two weeks ago. Here's to thinking he can have a repeat performance!
Josh Allen - 44.5 Rush Yards - Over
Josh Allen likes to run. That's a fact. I mean, it works so if it ain't broke don't fix it. He's carried the ball 12 or more times in three of the past five games and rushed for more than 63 yards in four of his last five.
Devin Singletary - 15.5 Rec Yards - Over
All of a sudden the Bills just decided to make Singletary their lead back. So far it looks like that was a good choice. I like him in DFS this week, and I like this prop as well. New England has limited him on the ground this year, as he's averaging only 3.4 yards per carry against them.
But as long as the wind isn't blowing like those hurricane simulators you find (or used to find) in a mall, he's been getting passing work if the ground game ain't working. In his second game against this same Pats team, he caught 5 of 6 targets for 39 yards. Against Tampa, in a come-from-behind game, he caught 6 of 7 targets. If the Pats hold him back as they've done so far, a couple of dump-offs from Josh Allen will get him over this line.
That will do it for our 2021-22 NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Bets - Saturday. I'm really interested to see how these games are going to go. I think Cincy is going to take the first game, but the second game is a toss-up. Though I will admit I have a feeling the Patriots could pull the upset. Only one way to find out! Let the NFL Playoffs begin!