Welcome everybody to the 2021-22 NFL Wild Card Weekend ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!
We finished the season with a nice 3-2 week, bringing us to a final regular-season record of 45-40. As we move into the playoffs the format will change slightly.
Thrive is having three separate slates for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, so I am going to give you a larger than usual assortment of picks to use across all three days!
If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.
Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.
If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!
Good luck, and happy playoffs!
2021-22 NFL Wild Card Weekend ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks
Derek Carr - 255.5 - Passing Yards - 105 Points - Under
Much to most of the world’s disappointment, Carr and the Raiders kicked a field goal as overtime expired to beat the Chargers, rather than allowing time to expire and both teams advancing with a tie.
But I promise I am not just picking this prop to spite Carr and the Raiders. Carr has hit this under in eight of 17 matchups this year, including four of his last six games. He has averaged 282 yards per game this season, well over this mark, but this is largely propped up by his early-season numbers.
Carr started off the season hot, throwing for 435, 382, and 386 to start the year. But since the bye in Week 8, he has averaged just 253.5 yards per game. And has hit this under in six of his last eight games, including four straight games to close the season.
Hunter Renfrow - 60.5 Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Under
Much like Carr, Hunter Renfrow had a three-week stretch of dominance where he exploded for 134, 102, and 117. However, Renfrow’s dominance was much more recent as it stretched from Week 12 to Week 14.
But in the four games after that Renfrow averaged 40 yards and hit this under in three of four matchups to close the year.
Renfrow’s season as a whole tells a much more complete story, overall he hit this under in 11 of 17 games. Much of his production came from Waller missing time, and with Waller in the lineup last week Renfrow gained just 13 yards.
This pick completes a nice stack with Carr which simplifies our odds of hitting on as many picks as possible in any given entry.
Darren Waller - 3.5 Receptions - 90 Points - Over
Lastly, for the Saturday games, we have Darren Waller. This pick doesn’t stack as nicely with the Carr under, but 3.5 receptions is such a low total I don’t think there will be a problem with both hitting.
Waller has absolutely crushed this over this season, hitting it in nine of 11 games. The two times he missed it? One was the game he got injured in, and the other was his first game back from injury last week where he logged only two receptions but a team-high nine targets.
Waller has averaged 8.5 targets and five receptions per game this season, so this really just comes down to health. Given that he played last week, and he has logged limited practices with the team all this week, I believe he will be good to go. Just keep an eye on any late-breaking news just in case there is a setback.
Jalen Hurts - 250.5 Passing+Rushing Yards - 105 Points - Under
Jalen Hurts and most of the other Eagles’ starters got to take last week off as they had already clinched a playoff spot. Surely the rest will help, but will it be enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champs? I don’t like their odds here.
Hurts has averaged 196.5 passing yards and 49 rushing yards for a total of 245.5 yards per game this season, just under this mark. He has hit this under in exactly half of his 16 games this season, but more recently he has hit this under in six of his last eight games.
It is also worth noting that Hurts has already played against the Buccaneers this season. It was a 28-22 loss in Week 6 where Hurts put up his lowest total yards in any game this season with just 159.
Against this tough Buccaneers’ rush defense, I think the Eagles will be forced to pass more than they would normally like to. And I don’t think Hurts has what it takes to get it done when forced into a tough situation like that in the playoffs.
Jimmy Garoppolo - 0.5 Interceptions - 125 Points - Under
Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers managed to steal a win in Los Angeles and punch their ticket to the playoffs. They will have to go on the road and prove themselves against a very good Cowboys team if they want to advance.
The Cowboys ranked second in DVOA against the pass, whereas they are a very average 16th against the run. So, expect a run-heavy game plan from the 49ers, who tend to lean that way to begin with.
Jimmy G has thrown 12 interceptions in 15 games this season, an average of 0.8 per contest. But he has hit this under in seven of 15 games this season, meaning this is close to a coinflip in terms of our chance at hitting.
Sure, it’s a bit risky, but I will gladly take the chance at a coinflip if it means I get 125 points for a win.
Diontae Johnson - 70.5 Receiving Yards - 105 Points - Under
Diontae Johnson and the Steelers somehow find themselves in a playoff game here, but it won’t be easy. The Chiefs potent offense has regained their elite form, meanwhile, their defense seems to have finally found their footing.
Diontae has averaged 72.5 receiving yards per game, just over this mark. And he has hit this under in six of 16 games this season. But he isn’t exactly coming into the playoffs hot.
He has hit this under four straight games to close the season and averaged just 42.7 yards per game in that span. This includes a 51-yard performance against this same Chiefs team just three weeks ago.
I’ll gladly take the extra five points from ThriveFantasy to bet on this trend continuing.
Kyler Murray - 280.5 Passing Yards - 105 Points - Under
Look away Cardinals fans! I’ll rip the Band-Aid off right now; the next four picks are all Cardinals unders. After starting the season 9-2, the Cardinals proceeded to drop four of their final six games and are just limping into the playoffs.
Injuries to Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins sent this team down a spiral. Going from the first down overall seed to having to take on the Rams on the road is far from ideal.
The Rams have locked up the pass all year as evident by their 6th in pass defense DVOA ranking indicates. Shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey paired with star defensive tackle Aaron Donald is a frightening matchup for any offense.
On the season Murray is averaging 270.5 passing yards per game and has hit this under in 10 of 14 games this season. Since returning from his injury, that average has dropped to 252 yards, and he has hit this under in five of his final six games.
Kyler hasn't looked quite the same since his injury and I don't believe he will be able to keep up with the Rams without Deandre Hopkins' help.
Christian Kirk - 56.5 Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Under
Next on the Cardinals hit list is Christian Kirk. Kirk has been a reliable contributor for the Cardinals this year, averaging 57.7 yards per game and has a catch in every game this season.
He has hit under this 56.5 mark in eight of 17 games this season. And in the six games since Murray’s return, he has been completely even, hitting both the under and the over three times each.
Sportsbooks are predicting around 50 to 52 yards for Kirk in this game depending on where you look. So, it should be a close one either way. Most of the benefit of this pick comes from stacking it with Kyler Murray’s under to really give your entry that extra boost.
50.5 Receiving Yards - 105 Points - Under
0.5 Receiving TDs - 80 Points - Under
Finally, we have unders for A.J. Green on both yards and touchdowns.
Green has averaged 53 yards per game this season, and despite Hopkins missing time, Green hasn’t seen an uptick in production. In fact, in the last four games that Hopkins has missed, Green’s average yards have dropped to 48.5 per game.
Green has hit this yardage under in eight of 16 games this season, including three of six since Murray’s return. This is another well-set line by ThriveFantasy as it could easily go either way, but I’ll take an extra five points and another stack with Kyler.
On the other hand, the touchdown under is far safer. Green has scored just three times all season. That’s an average of 0.18 per game. And his last score was all the way back in Week 6!
You can mix and match these Cardinals unders as you see fit. I will personally be taking all of them, go big or go home in the playoffs!
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