2021 BMW Championship DFS Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Preview

Don't shoot the messenger, but my 2021 BMW DFS Picks will be my last golf article of the season.

But don't cry for me Argentina. And try to look on the bright side of life: I will still be with you this fall providing Fantasy Football content. Plus all plans are for me to be back in 2022. Of course, as the joke goes, if you want to make to God laugh, make a plan.

But this being the last article of the season was always the plan. Next week, the PGA playoffs will end at East Lake. However, with only 30 golfers vying for the championship, there's no such thing as a deep sleeper.

I suppose to be totally honest, we don't have many deep sleepers this week either. But at least there's some merit to me pointing out the value picks. Next week, your cheaper picks are going to be determined more by whom you can squeeze in after you make your top three or four stud picks. <-----There's your strategy tip for next week.

But this week I'm going to break it down by DraftKings salary band. The FanDuel salaries are not that wildly disparate. I'm sure you can adjust accordingly. I'll give you at least one golfer I like and one I'm fading in each band. Got it? Good, because I'm now gonna hit 'em long and straight.

2021 BMW Championship DFS Picks

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$10K to $12K Price Range

So yes, if I could fit six golfers in this range into my lineup, I'd have at least one entry if not a ton that did. But alas, that's not an option, so we need to decide who is "worth the money"?

Fade: Jordan Spieth ($10,800)

I like Jordan Spieth. And I will likely have tons of shares of him next week for East Lake (<----EAST LAKE TIP!). But Caves Valley, the site of this week's 2021 BMW Championship, is not a course whose requirements match his strengths. He is a strong golfer who could still finish in the top 20, but at $10.8K, we need that at a minimum and I don't see a Top Five finish happening. I'm glad, because that should deplete his price, making him a great value next week.

Lock: John Rham ($11,700)

I hope Rham and his third-place finish after leading most of the tournament did not cost you as much money as it did me. And we know DFS-ers often abandon ship after getting burned. But I'm going the opposite way. We know Rham has the fortitude to shake it off and he's just had too good of a year to let that sway me. Apparently, the books agree with me:

I don't love the value he provides in either the sportsbooks or this week on DK, but you will feel really stupid if you fade him this week.

$9K to $9.9K Price Range

Here is where things get verrry interesting. I'd bet dollars to donuts that your losing owners this week are the ones who completely screw up their picks in this tier. That could be me, but I feel pretty good about these picks.

Fade: Tony Finau ($9,800)

Like most, I absolutely love Finau.

He's everyone's favorite "nice guy", but he's got a great game as well. But he's not winning again this week. I think he can have another strong week, but a descent back to Earth is more likely. He'll be in the top half this week, but expecting him to be on the first page of the leaderboard is asking to be let down.

Lock: Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600) and Rory McIlroy ($9,400)

Both of these golfers have not shown great form lately. Oosthuizen has not been able to for medical reasons and McIlroy just seems to be continuing his up and down season. I'm hoping most gamers avoid them, as I love the value both of them bring. Oosty was on absolute heater with eight straight Top-25s (and is a T-2 at the Masters really so bad?) before having to withdraw from his last two tournaments.  But that also means he is coming in rested as well. He is second on tour in scoring average and don't be surprised if he leaves Maryland on his way to Atlanta in the pole position.

Of course if Rory wins this week, he'll likely be the frontrunner to win the FedEx. And I like his chances of doing so. Despite what has been categorized as a "disappointing" season by some, Rory luckily finds himself inside the bubble to make it to the FedEx Championship next week. Despite being just 28th in the FedEx Standings, McIlroy is still 4th in birdie average and 2nd in driving distance. And recall that one of his many Major victories came in the Washington-Baltimore Metro area when he won the US Open at Congressional by a whopping eight strokes. He's not winning this tournament by eight strokes, but he's my favorite sub-$10K player to win this week.

Also consider: Bryson Dechambeau, Viktor Hovland

$8K to $8.9K Price Range

While the above salary band could be where the rubber meets the road, this is the "meat and potatoes" tier. (How am I doing on my quest to fit in as many cliches as possible?). It is nearly impossible to avoid this entire tier and any one of these should help bolster your roster. But you don't want one that is going to clog your arteries, but one that helps give your entry the strength to make it into the cash zone. It would not be a shock to see one or two of these golfers in the hunt come Sunday.

Fade: Sam Burns ($8,300)

I might have Burns in some of my early-round Showdown lineups, but I just don't see him finishing anywhere near the top of the board. I like him for the upcoming 2022 season. However, I noticed an alarming trend with Burns: he does not play well on Sunday. In only one PGA event did he post a 64 or better on Sunday. The trend rear its ugly head this past week when after Burns shot 64 on Saturday, he fell out of the top 20 after shooting his tournament-worst 72 the final round. Maybe he reverses the trend, but I'm not willing to take that chance.

Lock: Joaquin Niemann ($8100)

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The BMW is a no-cut event, thereby making Neimann's 24 of 25 cuts made less valuable. But is it? Knowing his first two rounds are going to be solid should give you a confidence boost. He has played well on the weekend as well, as his five top-ten and three top-five finishes on Tour can attest. And that doesn't include his top ten at the Olympics either. Niemann is 12th in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Total.

He finished just 47th last week, but this gives us a great buying opportunity. Take it.

Also consider: Webb Simpson, Scott Scheffler 

$7K to $7.9K Price Range

We are starting to get into the sleeper range. There might be some value in wagering on one of these guys to win this tournament. However, if you do, I'd take the cash-out offer if it means a profit. They could certainly provide some excitement come Sunday, but I don't see any of them actually winning it. Still, there is plenty of buying opportunity for DFS in this salary tier.

Fade: Russel Henley ($7,800)

Just like Rham, Henley cost me quite a few bucks the previous week. After leading most of the tournament, he then failed to capitalize. And Henley is not the golfer Rham is. This might be completely irrational, but I refuse to invest in Henley after yanking my chain two weeks ago. Plus, at $7800, that is just too gosh darn expensive for a player who recently left me high and dry.

Lock: Cameron Tringale ($7500)

Despite the alma mater love, Tringale comes with some risk. Tringale seems to have a similar issue to Burns in that he usually plays pretty well until the final round. However, there are enough blips in that trend for Tringale, like when he fired his tournament-best 66 last month at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He finished 14th, one of his four top tens this year. Furthermore, he is far cheaper than Burns. Finally, I like the stat set that he brings to the table. He is 21st in birdie average and 24th in SG: Total. He has three top 25s in his last four tournaments, which has put him on the bubble to make it to East Lake; but I like his chances of making it.

Also consider: Harold Varner III 

$6.9K and Below Price Range

You could certainly create an entry without dipping this low. However, if you want to have at least a couple top-level studs in your lineup, you are going to have to dip into this tier.  We are starting to get into the sleeper range. There might be some value in wagering on one of these guys to win this tournament. However, if you do, I'd take the cash-out offer if it means a profit. They could certainly provide some excitement come Sunday, but I don't see any of them actually winning it. Still, there is plenty of buying opportunity for DFS in this salary tier.

Fade: Robert Streb ($6,000)

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Don't get cute. There is just no reason to dip this low.

Yes, Streb had a good week last week. However, he missed the cut the previous week just like he has 13 other times this season. The fact that he made the cut in less than half of the tournaments that he played this year should be enough fodder to ignore him this week. But in case it isn't, his statistical profile is, in the words of my youngest child, "blech".

His shots gained are negative both Off the Tee and Approaching the Green, as well as Tee to Green, giving him a negative -.219 SG: Total. That stat gives him a ranking of 144th on tour. The one place he has gained shots is putting, having picked up .178 SG: Putting. Yet even that ranks him just 73rd on tour. I remind you that this is a field of 59.

Don't do it.

Lock: Aaron Wise ($6300) and Patton Kizzire ($6200)

Both these players come with some risk as their salary indicates. They each have missed seven cuts this year. However, Kizzire balances that out with nine Top 25s. And it's that intangible quality that has me on Kizzire. Just when you are ready to count him out, Kizzire comes roaring back. He's a long shot to play in Atlanta next week, but those with worse records than Kizzire have made it before.

Meanwhile, Wise only has five Top 25s but has also played fewer tournaments than Kizzire. And I like Wise a lot. He's 28th in birdie average and 9th in GIR. The issue with Wise is his putting as he is 153rd in total putting. But when you're making shots like this, does it matter?

Furthermore, his game is a good fit for Caves Valley Country Club which might help him return to East Lake, just as he did back in his ROY season in '17/18.

Also consider: Cameron Davis


Well, that will about do it for me. Good luck with your 2021 BMW Open entries!

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