Daily Fantasy Sports

2021 Conference Championship DFS H2H Thunderdome


Welcome to the 2021 Conference Championship DFS H2H Thunderdome!

Each week Scott Simpson (@NimblewNumbers) and Bo McBrayer (@Bo_McBigTime), the DFS writing team over at NimblewNumbers.com, will be facing off in a DraftKings (DK) Head-to-Head (H2H) contest.

Two men enter and one man leaves…richer!

2021 Conference Championship DFS H2H Thunderdome

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

Scott’s Build

Last week I beat Bo, ending my five-week losing streak in the Fantasy Six Pack Thunderdome. A lesser man would have vigorously celebrated the victory like when an interior lineman registers his first sack of the season and he proceeds to busts out the worm next to the fallen quarterback.

I’m not a lesser man.

The last six weeks have taught me that Bo is one of the best in the DFS game at H2H contests. Watching him outmaneuver me with games stacks, runbacks, pay downs for touchdowns, and PPR back doors has been a masterclass in line up construction. Hats off to a visionary DFS player who I’m honored to mix it up with each week.

This week we are playing for $100 and all the off-season bragging rights Twitter will tolerate right before putting you in Twitter jail. Now you know the real reason I took a muted victory lap last week. I’m saving it all for this week!

I will be dancing all over Twitter this off-season if I beat “Mr. I win 87% of my Cash Games” on Sunday. It will be the greatest accomplishment of my young  DFS life and I will wear it like a badge of honor, requesting that Bo pay me in $1 daily increments to remind him of his eternal shame.

It’s going to be glorious.

Josh Allen, QB, Josh Allen: $6,900

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I’m all in on Josh Allen this week in Cash. Last week the Bills dropped Allen back over 40 times to pass. He only scored 12.4 DraftKings points, but I expect him to bounce back in a big way this week in the game that has an over/under of 54 points.

Allen has been particularly dangerous as a runner this year, scoring nine touchdowns, which is five more than any other quarterback still standing on the Conference Championship Slate.

Rushing touchdowns are two more points than passing touchdowns in DraftKings scoring. Points will be at a premium and Allen’s rushing ability presents a value I could not pass up on this truncated slate.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  $5,300

Leonard Fournette or “Playoff Lenny” is a gamer in the postseason, averaging 22.5 touches per game, he has rushed for 4.9 yards per carry, while also punching in two touchdowns.

On a condensed slate of only two games / four teams, he presents the best at the running back position and will be in all my Cash line ups.

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: $4,800

Darrel Williams filled in beautifully for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and company last week, rushing for 78 yards on 13 carries and adding another four receptions for 19 yards. This week CEH will return, but what remains unclear is how Andy Reid‘s backfield split breakdown.

I’m expecting CEH to be used more as a change of pace and third-down back, with Williams being used between the tackles and at the goal line.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills:  $7,000

Fellow Maryland Terrapin Stefon Diggs has been on fire during the postseason. He leads all wide receivers in receptions (14), yards (234), and touchdowns (2). Diggs is what we call a “lock and load” play this week for all formats.

There’s almost a zero percent chance he’s not in the Milly Maker winning line up. Adjust accordingly.

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers: $8,000

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I checked out Davante Adams Wikipedia page after their Divisional Round games against the Ram and it read, “Jalen Ramsey‘s daddy.” This doesn’t bode well for Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and James Dean, whoever they are.

Oh, I remember who they are. They are the same group of corners who gave up a million yards to Tyreek Hill in Week 12. Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to exploit the Buccaneers corners and scheme Adams open all game long.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: $7,200

Tyreek Hill is coming off of a 22.9 point performance despite losing his MVP quarterback in the second half of the game. Hill is the most explosive WR in the league and will be a challenge for holding him in check during their Week 5 clash, surrendering only 5.5 points on three receptions for 20 yards.

It would be disingenuous to say that athletes don’t have something to prove each time they step onto the field or that Hill has more to prove this week given his limited stat line the last time these teams clashed. I do think that Hill will be more involved in the offensive scheme and should see closer to 10 targets than the three that he had in Week 5.

Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers: $3,600

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Robert Tonyan is facing a Buccaneers defense that has surrendered over 830 yards and nine touchdowns to the tight end position this season. Tonyan has been a touchdown machine, coming out of nowhere this year to score 11.

Priced below $4,000 and $4,400 less than Travis Kelce, he presents a pay down option with a 15-18 point upside.

Gabriel Davis, FLEX, Buffalo Bills: $3,500

Gabriel Davis dropped a touchdown last week against the Ravens. To add insult to injury, he also sprained his ankle and left the game, scoring 0.0 DraftKings points in the process. Davis is an upside play in a game that will see heavy pass volume from Josh Allen and the Bills.

Davis is currently questionable but is trending towards a dreaded ‘game-time” decision so monitor his status up until kick-off. If he’s OUT, I like Scotty Miller at $3,400 as a late swap replacement.

Green Bay Packers, DST: $3,600

Defense is one of the hardest positions to nail each week in DFS. Tipped balls, muffed punts, fumbles, and interceptions are random and hard to predict. I have decided to pay up for the Packers because they are at home this week at the friendly confines of fridgid Lambeau Field.

The Packers are 72-1 when leading at halftime under Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers get up early, Tom Brady will be forced to air it out, which increases the likelihood that one of his passes ends up in Packer’s hands.

Bo’s Build

I laid down my shield in defeat last week. I returned to civilization on Monday evening to find that Scott’s tribe had burned my village. My most trustworthy sergeant, Mike “Slant Boy” Thomas, was found half-buried at the tomb of the diminutive General Brees, with his ankles haphazardly bandaged and askew. Thomas had retired in solidarity with his captain with nary a blip on the score sheet.

My five-week escapade of ticker tape and jolly drunkenness had come to a smoldering conclusion. My mortality was revealed to those who remained; they had forgotten that I, too bled the same red blood. I am fallible. I am imperfect.

As Emperor Simpson and I enter the final Thunderdome battle of the War of 2020, the margin of error has never been narrower, the stakes never higher. One hundred American dollars go to the victor, with an entire offseason of tasteless jokes and social media emasculation directed to the departed. I have been preparing myself for this type of pressure-packed action since I was a wee lad shooting squirrels in the highlands of Northern California

I don’t just want to win this week. My objective is to triumph in a resounding and humiliating fashion. I want to stand alone at the top of the heap, figuratively adorned with Scott’s teeth and bones.

My lineup should tell a story. My objective is to capture as many of the touchdown scorers as possible from within the two games, so I am game stacking what I believe to be the highest-scoring game, between the Chiefs and Bills. I am hedging this with some volume plays from the Bucs-Packers game, looking to add in some stability. 

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: $7,600

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I fully expect Mahomes to clear concussion protocol because I believe he was knocked unconscious from a carotid squeeze, rather than a brain injury. With his full complement of weaponry, he is simply too good for a middling defense like Buffalo.

This game figures to be a shootout, but my money is on the elite quarterback who has been forged in the playoff fire more times and won’t fold like a Lifetime table under the pressure.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs:  $5,300

Playoff Lenny is the best Lenny. He is one of the most formidable running backs in these spots and should be featured heavily against a weak Packers front. The real reason I place him above Rojo is from the trust he has earned in the passing game. I want winners this week, and I still remember Playoff Lenny from a few years ago when he carried the Jags to two playoff victories.

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills: $4,500

I hate this pick. I want to throw up in my mouth, but with his salary and an incorrigible feeling in my gut that he will see a large bump in touches over his 10 from last week, I will hold my nose and hope for some receptions and a rare touchdown.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: $7,200

Nobody was visibly more upset when Patrick Mahomes went down last week than the Cheetah. His game is simply not able to be extracted with Chad Henne on the field. I see this passing game having an absolutely massive performance and it won’t happen if Hill isn’t drawing a ton of attention as he motions all over the formation.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills: $7,000

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Is there a more consistent possession/big-play receiver in the game than Diggs? The answer is yes, his name is Davante Adams. With Adams putting up similar numbers but costing a full $1,000 more in salary, I’ll spring for the guy with a better supporting cast to prevent him from drawing as many double teams and coverage games.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: $4,000

Cheetah Lite, as I call him, has been very involved in this offense down the stretch and carries some incredible upside for his bargain price. He is also one of my favorite football players to root for. He was going to be an integral part of last week’s victory if it weren’t for Slant Boy raining on my parade.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: $8,000

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This is an absolute no-brainer. Every time I have paid up for Kelce, he has delivered huge performances. He has had such an amazing and consistent season, I would be remiss if I did a Chiefs stack without him. He culminates a triple stack, where I am clearly banking on a legacy performance from Andy Reid’s boys.

Robert Tonyan, FLEX, Green Bay Packers: $3,600

I don’t want to miss all of Aaron Rodgers’ pieces this weekend. Since we have seen Tampa Bay come up with some impressive defensive schemes, including Davante Adams’ second-worst performance of the season and a shutdown of Michael Thomas last week,

I think Rodgers will be looking for another clear mismatch in the red zone, which is where Tonyan comes in. Green Bay had the highest touchdown rate in the red zone for any team since 1980. Nearly all of their passing touchdowns from inside the 20 went to Adams or Tonyan. This is simply a great value.

Buccaneers, DST: $2,700

With four of the top five scoring offenses left at this point, none of the four defenses are appealing from a fantasy vantage point. I’ll spend down on the defense that put up 19 DK points against these Packers in Week 6, although my expectations are understandably much lower.

Click here for updated NFL DFS Projections. You can download them and use the optimizer for free!

About Scott Simpson & Bo McBrayer

Follow Scott Simpson and Bo McBrayer on Twitter @Nimblewnumbers and @Bo_McBigTime

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