2021 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Antonio Gibson


With the 2021 Dynasty Football season upon us, here at Fantasy Six Pack we’re going to be assessing and evaluating the dynasty prospects of some of the best second-year players. Today, we’re going to be evaluating the 2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Antonio Gibson.

Antonio Gibson was one of the biggest fantasy football surprises last season. Drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft by the Washington Football Team, many drafters didn’t exactly know what to expect from the man who primarily played wide receiver at Memphis. He was introduced as a running back and it became known pretty quickly he was going to get his chance early.

When Washington released Adrian Peterson the flood gates opened and the Antonio Gibson hype reached new heights. We’re seeing that hype, combined with a productive rookie season driving fantasy owners to treat him as an RB1.

In our recent dynasty start-up mock draft here at the Fantasy Six Pack, Antonio Gibson was drafted as the 15th running back off the board with the 3.11 pick. Gibson is a tremendous asset because of his youth and ascending talent profile. Let’s look at what makes him so special and what we should be considering when it comes to Antonio Gibson’s dynasty value.

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2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Antonio Gibson

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Youth and Athleticism

Antonio Gibson is only 21 years old. If you’re buying into a dynasty running back, the younger the better. Running backs do not age like fine wines. His youth will provide dynasty owners several years of quality play. And in terms of his workload, he might be even younger. When we look at the college workload of guys like Ezekiel Elliott and Jonathan Taylor, these guys touched the ball a ton. They entered the NFL having a lot of mileage on their bodies already. Because Gibson primarily played wide receiver at college, he’s fresher than most second-year running backs.


Antonio Gibson also just so happens to be one of the most athletically gifted players at running back. The NFL is chock full of the very best athletes the world has to offer and Antonio Gibson is a freak. He’s 228 pounds and still ran a 4.39 forty. Insanity. He also had elite 20-yard split and 10-yard split times. His Relative Athletic Score was 9.29 out of 10. He’s an elite athlete. These are two monster pluses for Gibson’s dynasty value.

Potential, Potential, Potential

Antonio Gibson was essentially learning on the job last year as a rookie. This was against the very best players in the world and he was very, very good. When it comes to Fantasy Football, there can be a tendency to over-think things. There’s so much information out there and different statistics but in Gibson’s case, there’s nothing to over-think. This guy finished as the RB13 in full-PPR leagues despite only having 33 carries in college. Think about that.

And what’s even crazier?! He accomplished that with minimal work in the passing game. One might make the mistake of thinking, he was a college wide receiver, he was probably a check-down artist. This is not true. Antonio Gibson only had 36 catches in his rookie season. The vast majority of his fantasy points were earned playing a position he hardly played in college. There’s so much untapped potential with him.

He’s Already Really Good

We all love potential. The upside is great. It’s what we’re all chasing. But when we’re talking about drafting someone around the third round, it can’t just be all about potential. We need to know we’re getting some level of consistently high-level production. Antonio Gibson certainly checks this box off too.

Washington’s offense left a lot to be desired last year. They were constantly handicapped by poor quarterbacks. With minimal weapons in the passing game, defenses were able to focus on stopping Antonio Gibson and their rushing game. And despite all of this, he still averaged 4.7 yards per carry.

He also averaged one broken tackle on every 8.5 attempts. Mike Davis. There, I just named every running back in the NFL who had a better broken tackle rate than Antonio Gibson. That is it. One guy. And this was his first season in the NFL. This was playing a position he didn’t even play in college. This would be like Tim Tebow, well no, we won’t go there. But that is super impressive. So why is he not ranked higher?

Volume Concerns

Antonio Gibson, despite all the efficiency stats and everything, simply did not touch the ball often. Not enough for an RB1 season anyways. Last year, Antonio Gibson only touched the ball 206 times. That simply is not going to get it done.

The number one reason everyone is so high on Antonio Gibson and rightfully so is because of what he did despite a sub-optimal workload. But the only way Gibson is able to reach his potential and exceed the hype that’s been placed on him is with more touches. Despite every stat showing he should have been getting the ball at an elite rate, that didn’t happen last season. And there’s no guarantee it’s going to happen in 2021. We can only hope that it does.

He made up for a lack of volume last season with a high touchdown rate. He scored 11 touchdowns on just 170 carries. That means he scored on 6.5 percent of his carries. Last season, Derrick Henry was at 4.5 percent. And the year before that, Christian McCaffrey was at 5.2 percent. We’re going to need an increase in volume to make up for a touchdown rate that is likely going to decrease in 2020. Is that something we can depend on?

Last season, J.D. McKissic out-snapped Antonio Gibson on third down 197 to 22. Overall, McKissic out-snapped Antonio Gibson 641 to 406. J.D. McKissic received 110 targets to Antonio Gibson’s 44. There are some red flags there we need to at least be cautious about. I want Gibson to be more involved in the passing game. You want Gibson more involved in the passing game. But neither of us matter. What does Ron Rivera want?

Now that is what we want to see! Ron Rivera compared Antonio Gibson to Christian McCaffrey during last season’s offseason, saying this will be a guy that can play all three downs. It’s possible they just didn’t want to overload Gibson with too much in his first season, especially after not having played running back in college. To me, this makes sense. I trust Ron Rivera to feature Gibson in the passing game more than he was last season.

Washington’s defense looks poised to be a top-5 unit for the foreseeable future. This is going to give Ron Rivera the opportunity to lean on their rushing attack and I love what that means for Antonio Gibson. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, even though he’s not a world-beater, he’s going to stabilize the position for Washington. It’s likely we see a more efficient offense from Washington this season.

If you’re not on the Antonio Gibson train yet, you need to get on. You’re going to be kicking yourself if you’re not. He is about to take off in 2021 and when that happens, the time to buy him will be long gone.

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That’s certainly a projection any Antonio Gibson owner would be very happy with, but I think there’s a real possibility he out-performs those projections. Any increased role in the passing game and a healthy season should ensure he smashes that yardage prediction. I’m buying Antonio Gibson everywhere I can. And you should too before it’s too late.

Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers!

About Rob Lorge

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