Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Cole Kmet

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Welcome everyone to the 2021 Dynasty Football Profile series. We are going to be rolling out a series of posts on players entering their second year in the NFL. For this week, I will be writing about Chicago Bears‘ tight end Cole Kmet.

There were a number of promising tight ends to come into the league last year, none more so than Kmet. Will he live up to the hype in year two?

So without further ado, let’s jump right into the 2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Cole Kmet.

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2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Cole Kmet

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Pre-Draft/Draft Capital

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In a fairly weak tight end draft class, Cole Kmet was arguably considered the best TE in the draft over the SaintsAdam Trautman. This turned out to be true when Kmet was the first tight end taken in the second round by the Chicago Bears. He wasn’t the most dominant player in college (60-691-6 TD’s in three years), but scouts fell in love with his draft profile.

Cole Kmet is 6’4″, 262 pounds and ran a 4.70 40-yard dash (74th percentile according to PlayerProfiler). He was also in the 84th percentile in speed score, along with burst score. The one thing going against him is his agility score (20th percentile). He is not very good at being shifty, but that is okay because his route speed is stellar.

*Thank you to PlayerProfiler.com for the scores, you guys are killing it*

Rookie Season

In his rookie season, Cole Kmet caught 28 balls for 242 yards and two touchdowns. This is your typical rookie season by a tight end, so don’t get turned off by that underwhelming first year. This could be because of the quarterback troubles, but he only had 8.7 Yards Per Catch (89th among TE’s) and a 6.5 ADOT (66th among TE’s). Even for tight ends this is somewhat alarming.

In Weeks 1-10, Kmet only averaged 0.7 catches a game on 1.1 targets. To make matters worse, he only ran an average of 6.4 routes a game with a 29.5% snap share. From weeks 12-17, his routes ran (26.1), and snap share percentage (87%) shot through the roof. It didn’t translate to the field as much as we would have hoped, but that is okay. He was still able to bring his targets per game up to 5.1 along with increasing his catches per game to 3.1.

In his last five games, Kmet had a snap share percentage above 85% in each game while commanding more than six targets in four of those five games. It seems like Jimmy Graham started to lose his spot towards the end of the year, so it looks promising for the young tight end.

If what we saw at the end of the year sticks, Cole Kmet could turn into a steal in dynasty drafts (currently TE16 by ADP). He is currently being drafted lower than Jonnu Smith (Hunter Henry is there), Hunter Henry(Jonnu Smith is there), Evan Engram (Kyle Rudolph?), and Logan Thomas (29 years old). Why? I will be going into the reasons why he should be drafted before these guys. It all starts with what the Bears’ did in the offseason.

Offseason Changes

The Chicago Bears didn’t go through a ton of changes, but a few will be pivotal to Cole Kmet’s success in the future. First off, they drafted their franchise quarterback in Justin Fields. He has a chance to be special. Secondly, the Bears also drafted offensive lineman Teven Jenkins in the 2nd round. They had a first-round grade on him, so they consider that a steal.

Now to the changes, or should I say lack of changes that will hurt Kmet’s value. They decided to keep Jimmy Graham for some reason even in his advanced age. They also brought back most of the other weapons on their offense. This isn’t great news for Cole Kmet’s 2021 season, but there is still a possibility he is valuable in 2021.

2021 Role

Going into 2021, Cole Kmet should be able to improve upon his rookie season, but I don’t think it will be a huge improvement. With Jimmy Graham still there, Kmet’s value won’t take off just yet. This is because Jimmy (22.2% target in RZ) will command the RZ targets while Kmet (8% target share in RZ) does everything else going down the field.

I expect Cole to put up the numbers he was putting at the end of 2020 (Weeks 10-17). He should get more work than last year, but it won’t be a full workload for the 22-year-old tight end. So for 2021, I would temper your expectations a little bit. There is one way where Cole Kmet can instantly gain a ton of value in 2021 and that would be if they cut Jimmy Graham. I don’t see this happening as Kmet isn’t ready to be the full-time starter just yet.

The reason to get excited about Cole Kmet is his future value. Next season should be the year Cole Kmet breaks onto the scene.

Issues

There are only a few issues regarding Cole Kmet. For one, Jimmy Graham is still there for at least one more year. This makes him more of a long play.

Secondly, the offensive line still looks brutal which means he might have to stay and block some more. Justin Fields escapability could negate some of this though.

Lastly, the playcalling is still a little sketchy at times. This also could be changed with a better player behind center and more options available to the offensive coaching staff.

Future (2022 & Beyond)

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This is where it gets exciting for Cole Kmet in dynasty leagues. The stars are aligning just right, and for 2022+ we could be looking at a perennial TE1 (1-12). In 2022 Cole Kmet will be entering his third year in the league, which is when tight ends usually breakout. He will only be 23 years old by this time next year. It’s very possible for the next 8-10 years, Cole Kmet will be one of the higher drafted tight ends in redraft as well.

The reasons behind this thinking? First off, Justin Fields will be the starting QB, no matter what, in 2022. Young quarterbacks love the safety of throwing to the tight end position. We could be seeing Kmet emerge as Fields’ favorite target. This could be similar to the situation in Kansas City with Mahomes/Kelce. Secondly, and this is the most important reason, Jimmy Graham will be gone by 2022. There is also a possibility Allen Robinson will be gone in 2022. If this is the case, it’s going to Cole Kmet szn… maybe even Darnell Mooney too (happy face).

Please draft him in dynasty startups as much as you can (TE16). You aren’t drafting him for 2021, necessarily, but for 2022 and beyond. If you pass up then you are going to wish you had drafted him. If you are already in a dynasty league, try trading for him. His value will never get lower than it is right now. Jump on the bandwagon before everyone else does.



Wrapping It Up

Well, everyone, I hope you enjoyed the 2021 Dynasty Football Player Profile: Cole Kmet. I will see you again next week when I do a profile on D’Andre Swift.


Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers!

About Mike Bonni

Just want to make my mark in the fantasy sports writing game. Help me out. Follow me on twitter where you will see my articles and others from the site. Twitter: @Ike2121

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