Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Dawson Knox

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We previously highlighted the current season and future season potential of D’Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions. Running back is one of the most important and shortest-lasting positions in Dynasty leagues. You need the top-tier talent, and you hope that they can last longer than four or five seasons. The other position that seems to churn more than any other is tight end.

You have the top three-ish guys like Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle. Just below those titans are guys like Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, and possibly the fellow we’re talking about today: Dawson Knox.

The top tiers of the position are aging out. Kelce is in his 30’s, Kittle can’t stay healthy, and Waller seems to be hitting a wall in the Las Vegas Raiders offense. Who’s rising to the top?

Knox is tied to a high-scoring offense in Buffalo. They’re led by MVP candidate Josh Allen and they have a killer passing attack. For a while, Dawson Knox shared snaps and was simply a streamer at the position. But what changed this year? Let’s dive in.

2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Dawson Knox

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A Steady Diet Of High-Value Looks

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Knox was drafted out of Ole Miss by the Bills in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. For his first two years, he was splitting time with the likes of Tyler Kroft and Lee Smith. So that production was few and far between, he had some blowup games, but was merely a TE2/3 for most of those years. 2020 is the difference maker though. Josh Allen morphed from “project QB” into an MVP candidate right before our eyes.

The addition of Stefon Diggs opened up the passing game for other receivers in the offense even more. So now when you go up against the Buffalo Bills, you have to contend with Diggs, Allen’s rushing ability, Emmanuel Sanders, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Knox. That’s a lot to keep track of for a defensive coordinator. Sure, some of those guys might be more Fantasy-relevant than others, but they all coalesce to make it hard on opposing defenses.

Target Share Looks Good, Red Zone Share Even Better

Knox was also hurt for a good portion of last year, but in his limited time, he still caught nearly as many passes as his rookie season. In 2021, he’s well on his way to career-highs in yards, receptions, targets, and already has as many touchdowns as the past two years combined. It all adds up to the fact that Knox is having a career year and is tied to a top-5 scoring offense in the NFL. There’s a big difference here from the past two years in snap counts as well.

He’s in the game on 77% of the Bills snaps this year, way up from the career-high of 61% in 2019. Finally, for the metrics, his target share is a bit low, but a normal level for a tight end, at 12.7%. His Red Zone share is at 21.2%, which is fantastic. His efficiency metrics of Yards Per Reception, Yards Per Target, Yards Per Route Run, QBR When Targeted are all in the Top 10 in the league. The only thing that gives pause is the touchdown rate so far this season. He’s second in the league in receiving touchdowns.

So if you’re thinking you’ve got Travis Kelce, you might want to hold off a bit. But, you don’t have another astronomically high touchdown rate with no other real production like Robert Tonyan.

As Josh Allen Goes, Knox Goes With Him

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Dawson Knox, like a lot of other Tight Ends in the NFL, took a bit to develop his skills past just being a good blocker. Every pass-catcher out there is only as good as the person throwing them the ball. So Dawson Knox is only 24 years old, and tied to an explosive offense led by one of the best quarterbacks in the league, should only get better. In Dynasty, you either could have picked him up off waivers (like my league) or traded for him for practically nothing earlier this year.

Now, that price might be astronomical. A more level-headed and rational evaluation probably places him near that top 6-8 of the position. Kelce, Kittle (when healthy), and Waller are still the gold standard. Pitts has the potential to be something we’ve never seen at the tight end position. Mark Andrews showed just how good he is on Monday night. T.J. Hockenson is on one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but targets don’t lie. After that, it’s really up to your personal evaluation.

For now, enjoy the ride with Dawson Knox and you can always reevaluate later in the season when he isn’t scoring touchdowns at a wild rate.


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About Hunter Bolding

Dynasty, DFS, and everything else under the Fantasy Sports umbrella.

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