Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Joe Burrow

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Welcome back to the 2021 Dynasty Football Profile series. We have been rolling out a series of posts on players entering their second year in the NFL. I will be focusing on four quarterbacks entering their sophomore year, with this week’s focus on Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

The 2020 NFL QB Draft Class featured three others that I tackled this Summer.

Justin Herbert looked like a seasoned vet in his rookie season and I will be writing about him next.

I have already written about the Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa and Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts.

Joe Burrow showed flashes of brilliance behind a depleted offensive line and without Joe Mixon after Week 6, before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 11. His rookie campaign was limited just to just 10 games but if he can return to play anywhere near 100%, with an improved Bengals offense, Burrow should be able to make an impact in Dynasty Football leagues for years to come.

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2021 Dynasty Football Profile: Joe Burrow

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Rookie Campaign

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Burrow started 10 games in his first NFL season and attempted at least 30 passes in every one of them. He averaged 40 pass attempts per game!

The biggest takeaway for me when seeing a rookie quarterback attempt that many passes on a bad offense is the interception rate. Burrow owned a 1.25 INT% which is the second-best by a rookie with 250+ pass attempts since 2000. Only Dak Prescott threw interceptions at a lower rate.

Joe Burrow is one of five rookie quarterbacks with 250+ attempts since 2000 to complete at least 65% of his pass attempts. That list includes Dak, Justin Herbert, Ben Roethlisberger and Robert Griffin III.

The only downside to Burrow’s rookie season, other than his season-ending injury, was his Adjust Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). As I have mentioned before, this stat is one of my favorites for evaluating quarterbacks. At just 5.72, Burrow’s ANY/A was below the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Taysom Hill, Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Mullens.

There were plenty of positive things to be encouraged by during his rookie year. This includes twice throwing three touchdown passes in a game and going over 300 passing yards in 50% of his games played, including over 400 yards against the Cleveland Browns.

Offseason Change of Scenery

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With their first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals reunited Joe Burrow with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase! Sure, A.J. Green is gone, but Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins gives Burrow three legit targets.

Giovani Bernard is gone now so it looks like the focus of the passing game will be downfield and not involve the running back much – at least for this season. We shall see how much work Joe Mixon gets on passing downs.

A healthy Joe Burrow will benefit from a healthy Joe Mixon. Both players will benefit from a healthy and upgraded offensive line. Cincinnati signed Reilly Reiff and drafted Jackson Carman, D’Ante Smith and Trey Hill to boost the offensive line depth.

2021 Role

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Assuming that Joe Burrow starts Week 1, it will be interesting to see if the offense goes right back to averaging 4o pass attempts per game or if they start with some extra touches for Mixon.

I think we could see a slow start to the Bengals offense as Burrow works his way back to 100%. Cincinnati starts the season with games against the Minnesota Vikings, before playing on the road against the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Have some patience and be on the lookout for potential buy-low opportunities ahead of their Week 4 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars!

Potential Speed-Bumps

A revamped offensive line protecting a QB returning from injury, a rookie wide receiver replacing a veteran, lack of depth at the running back position – these are just a few of the things that could delay the resurgence of the Cincinnati Bengals offense.

I also am not a huge fan of the Bengals tight end situation. Having a pass-catching threat at the position makes a huge difference in today’s NFL. Drew Sample and C.J. Uzomah (returning from ACL injury) just don’t do it for me.

Also, the Bengals play one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year.

Wrapping it up

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I love Joe Burrow. I love what he did at LSU. I love what he did in rookie season and I love that the Bengals front office reunited him with Ja’Marr Chase.

I do not love Cincinnati’s offensive line. However, I think it will be better than last year’s disaster of a carousel.

That being said if you want to acquire Burrow, your window is closing. If the offense clicks, chances are he will be untouchable in your Dynasty league(s).


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About Keith Lott

I have one goal, to help you win your league. It does not matter if you are a fantasy rookie or a veteran. Everyone has questions, and I have opinions. Lot(t)s of them!

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